Source: Bloomberg
Author: Josyana Joshua
Bloomberg's latest Markets Live Pulse survey found that as the Fed started interest rate cuts, the prospects of corporate bonds are improving.
54%of the respondents who responded in 203 believed that corporate bonds were more attractive than stocks.In the field of credit, investors prefer high -quality bonds instead of high -risk varieties.They are still liquidation for extending periods.
The results of theMliv Pulse survey show that investors are getting more and more tired of the high valuation of the stock market, and hope to get returns from other aspects.Investment in high -level bonds allows fund managers to obtain additional benefits, and at the same time extend the period that reflects the sensitivity of bonds to interest rate changes.When the benchmark interest rate decreases, assets with long periods of blue chip stocks often win.So far this year, the total return of the S & P 500 Index is about 21%, while high rating bonds are only about 5%.
The decline in the benchmark yield will increase the value of existing high -rate bonds, and reinventing financing at a lower interest rate will also be beneficial to the balance sheet, so it may lead to stable and even narrowing of credit interest differences, "Loop Capital Asset Management chief investor Scott Kimball said.
At the same time, 61%of the investigation participants said that it is not a good time to buy commercial real estate now, highlighting that people are not willing to go far away in the risk field in order to return.
Victor Khosla, the founder of the credit investment institution Strategic Value Partners LLC, said that the real estate of the US office building has "a lot of problems" and it has been seriously difficult to underwrite."There is almost a tsunami that is coming," he said in an interview with Bloomberg last week.
An interviewee said, the participants of Mliv Pulse were worried that the fundamentals were "damaged".Another interviewee said: "Even if all return to the office, the size of the auxiliary labor of artificial intelligence will become smaller."
In the eyes of the respondents, Asia's private credit is not attractive.About 65%of respondents said they did not think it was an opportunity to grow.
In the Asia -Pacific region, private credit is a niche market led by banks.However, despite the low base, the market has grown rapidly in the past four years.According to data company Preqin LTD estimates, by the end of 2023, private credit in the Asia -Pacific region has reached about $ 120 billion over four years ago.
In the past, the borrower would be avoided by the bank for credit or reputation.However, institutions including Apollo Global Management Inc., Berlaide, HPS Investment Partners and Muzinich Co. are slowly filling this gap in financing for SMEs, especially in traditional banks due to capital requirements and risk interests.This is even more like a drop.
Currency market
On the other hand, Blue -chip bonds are considered to have a lot of security and may benefit from changes in the currency market with a record of $ 6.46 trillion.Bond experts predict that as the benchmark interest rate continues to decline, investors will tend to transfer cash to high -yield assets.
"Investors are seeking higher -quality market components to act as cash alternatives," said Winifred Cisar, head of global credit strategy in Creditsights Inc., said, "From a historical point of view, the US investment -level market, especially front -end funds, have always been these"Agent of Cash"
She also said that as the Fed began to enter the interest rate cut cycle, this dynamic may support bonds with higher credit credit.There have been signs that this rotation is in progress. Since the Bank of the United States cuts interest rates in September, the strong inflow of corporate bonds is evidence.According to data from LSEG Lipper, investors injected US $ 3.8 billion into short -term investment -level bonds from the recent weekly reporting period, and 6.6 billion US dollars withdrew from US Treasury funds.
Nevertheless, the Pulse survey earlier showed that in the rest of this year, the US stock market will still win the country and corporate bonds.
"The current situation of the investment level is good and will continue to flow in." Voya Investment Management's US -investment -level enterprise supervisor Travis King said, "The fundamentals of credit are good, and if the economic conditions worsen, there is more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve more interest rate cuts more interest rate cuts.As a backing, that may lead to a decline in interest rates and general returns.
The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted from the terminal and online readers facing Bloomberg News from September 30th to October 4th. Participants include investment group managers, economists and retail investors.