Comment: Non -agricultural employment data relieves the Feds pressure and intere

Source: Bloomberg

The unexpectedly strong September non -agricultural employment report relieves concerns about the health status of the US labor market, and allows the Fed to have more room for the next few months to maintain a slow interest rate cut.

After the data was announced, economists and investors almost immediately lowered the expectations of the 50 base points to cut interest rates on November again in November.

Michael Feroli, chief American economist, said, "Today's report should make the Fed's work easier. We now expect that the central bank will take the road to 25 basis points at 25 basis points."

ADITYA BHAVE, a Bank of America economist, also predicts that the November interest rate reduction is reduced from 50 base points to 25 basis points. The French Bank of Paris Senior American Economist Ylena Shilyatyeva said the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious interest rate cut rhythm.

She wrote in a report to customers that the number of non -agricultural employment in September has accelerated significantly, and the unemployment rate has decreased. In addition, economic data in the past two weeks is generally better. These signs reflect the economic toughness.The prospect of landing expectations provides further support.

According to data from the US Labor Statistics, the number of employment in September increased by 254,000, exceeding the expectations of all economists, the number of recruiters in July and August was repaired, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.Easily surpass inflation.

In addition, the dock workers at the port of the eastern and Mexican bays agreed to end the three -day strike.

These messages have once again opened controversy over the Fed's next interest rate action.Investors who do multi -federal fund interest rate futures are expected to cut interest rates at 25 basis points in November, which is nearly 10 basis points lower than before the report release.

The Fed Chairman Powell made a speech last week that the dot matrix shows that the decision makers tend to reduce interest rates at 25 basis points in November and December.

But some commentators soon issued a warning of contradictory.Some people call on the Federal Reserve not to over -respond to a single data report, so as to further cut interest rate cuts, others believe that the new data shows that the Federal Reserve has a rate cut speed.

Former US Treasury Secretary Summes, who often criticized the Federal Reserve, said, "It seems that afterwards, 50 basis points to cut interest rates in September are a mistake, although the consequences are not serious."

Metlife Investment Management's chief market strategist Drew Matus said the non -agricultural report hinted that the November interest rate reduction should be between 0 and 25 base points, not 25 to 50 base points.

Matus said, "They need to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, because the least unbearable Federal Reserve is to accelerate inflation again."

Rest at 50 basics

There are also some analysts still believe that there is still room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 50 base points. They emphasized that before the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting, several economic data will be released, including two copies of inflation in September in SeptemberReport and non -agricultural employment data in October.

Lh Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics Economist Derek Tang said, "The market firmly makes an expectation of 25 basis points at 25 base points.It was even bigger before, but once the new employment data is worse, as long as the inflation continues to decline, we cannot rule out the possibility of the Fed's adoption. "

If you carefully examine the details of non -agricultural employment data, the above views can be found from it.The number of unemployment for more than six months has risen to the highest level in nearly three years.In addition, more than half of the new employment is concentrated in two industries, namely the leisure and hotel industry, as well as the medical care industry.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chief Austan Goolsbee is the only decision maker who responded publicly on the non -agricultural employment report on Friday. He has hardly showed his willingness to give up further interest rate cuts.As one of the most factions of the Federal Public Marketing Committee, he welcomed non -agricultural employment data, but in an interview with Bloomberg TV, he warned that he was worried that inflation may eventually be lower than the Fed's 2%goal.