What is the effectiveness of a package to rescue the city, it should be quite uncertain. It can only take a step at a step, which also means that China's economic adjustment is a long -term process.

The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut for four years, and the benchmark interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points at a time, making the market cheer, and the US stock market index should also rise.The turn of the Fed's monetary policy is to promote the US economy to soft landing and control market risks, but it also means that the global monetary policy has a major steering. For the global emerging market and the Chinese economy, it is not long -lasting.The problem now is that the Chinese economy, which has been sluggish for nearly three years, can we have shifted to looseness with the global central bank's monetary policy and get out of the predicament?From September 24th to 27th, the Chinese government issued a package of rescue policies, hoping to re -grow the weak economy through strong stimuli.Can this make China's economy re -grow to a cycle of stable growth?

At present, the appearance of China's continuous economic downturn is that domestic demand is effective, the housing stock price continues to fall, the pressure of currency tightening, the severe unemployment, and the serious distribution of residents' income.The spiral vicious circle, as long as the government can stabilize the real estate market and restore the confidence of the real estate market, the Chinese economy can regain the continuous growth road.Yes, the root cause of China's economic issues is that house prices continue to fall, and people's confidence is completely lost.Because from 2003 to 2021, the reason why the Chinese economy can continue to grow rapidly is relying on real estate. Real estate has become the biggest driving force for these years. Without the real estate drive, the Chinese economy will immediately fall into stagnation.

In this case, I pointed out when I gave a lecture to students in 2005 that the reason why China could maintain high economic growth at that time, housing mortgage loans were power sources, because as a credit consumption, it could not only resolve residents' purchase of large consumer goods housesFacing huge payment pressure, and can use residents' income in the next 30 years for current consumption.In this way, the consumption capacity of residents was enlarged by 30 times in an instant.In order to cope with the rapid expansion of residents' housing needs, the special housing pre -sale system, land supply system, and bank credit system in China have also emerged.The emergence of rapid development and growth, real estate has become the greatest driving force for growth, and real estate and related industries account for more than 25%of China's GDP (GDP).

However, as a credit consumption, housing mortgage is very different from the purchase of other consumer goods (such as cars, large home appliances, etc.) credit consumption.Other consumer goods are basically pure consumer products, and residents can only buy according to actual consumer needs; credit consumption demand has strict boundaries.As a huge amount of credit products, housing can be used for consumption or investment.If the housing is only a credit consumer product, the consumer demand is also bounded, and the demand for housing will stop to some extent, and the role of economic growth will be eased at a certain time.

As an investment product, the nature is the same as the nature of financial products.At this time, housing prices do not depend on the substantive supply and demand relationship of housing, but also on the expectations of buyers in the real estate market and financial market conditions (loan interest rates, leverage rates, etc.).When the government's hidden guarantee (the demand of the local government's land finance, because house prices have determined land prices), China's real estate market price has only risen in 20 years.Housing is the best financial investment product.This will not only make housing prices rise rapidly or getting faster, but also the investment demand for housing will also be infinitely enlarged.As a result, the Chinese GDP in the form of currency continued to grow rapidly, and the real estate bubbles quickly blown up. Most of the housing consumption demand of housing without payment was squeezed out of the market. Those who had entered the market to buy housing, the future housing demand through excessive liabilities was overdone.

As long as the market's expected reversal of housing prices will not fall and house prices continue to fall, buying housing is not only unprofitable, but also facing huge investment risks. The investment demand of housing will immediately disappear.It can only be released little by little in the process of housing prices.This is the reality of the current real estate market in China.Since the second half of 2021, China's house prices have continued to decline nationwide.House prices in first -tier cities have basically fallen by more than 30%, and housing prices in many cities have even cut.

The market bubble has not completely squeezed out

The decline in housing prices nationwide has become a trend, and when the bottom is completely uncertain.Because the current decline in house prices only refers to the price of housing as a kind of investment product. As for when it fell to the price level of consumer goods, there was a huge gap.Because in the housing market, if the credit system and taxation cannot be used to strictly limited housing investment and consumption, housing investors will always be higher than the price level of housing consumers.This naturally squeeze the vast majority of housing consumers out of the market, and real estate has become a market -dominated market.However, after the market is completely reversed, the nature has changed fundamentally, and the real estate market has become a market dominated by consumers.

Therefore, what level of house prices fall to the current housing consumption demand can be released. According to the UN housing price income ratio index of 3 to 6, that is, residents purchase a set of basic living housing.It's right.At present, China's first -tier cities have more than 30 housing income, Nanjing and Hangzhou are above 27, and even Chengdu and Wuhan are above 18 or more.

If the income ratio of housing prices in these cities is the baseline, housing prices in various cities must return to the level of housing consumption demand, and the road of housing prices will still have a long way, not to say that it can be one hundred for three years.The current market bubble has not been completely squeezed out, that is, housing prices have continued to fall for three years, and real estate bubbles are being shattered. However, if you stop falling at this level, you can only allow some high -income housing buyers to enter, and re -investment in housing investment.Enter.This can neither squeeze out the broken bubble nor release more housing consumption demand. On the contrary, it may be blown up and bring more problems in the real estate market.

Also, the Chinese real estate market must stop falling and stabilize, and rebuild confidence, as pointed out by the Conference of the Central Political Bureau of the Mainland Government, there are two major tasks to be completed.First, the insurance delivery incident that broke out in 2022 should be completely resolved.From 2015 to the first half of this year, the pre -sale of 48 million units in the future.Although the central document has been emphasizing firmly recently, it has been worrying for two years.Because the pre -sale house purchased by residents not only faces the huge risk of continued decline in house prices, but also faces the risk of unable to collect the building.Therefore, as a futures market, the Chinese housing market can not be recovered at all if the protection of diplomatic relations cannot be resolved successfully.

The second is that by the end of August, the area of ​​commercial houses to be sold was 737.83 million square meters, a year -on -year increase of 13.9%.Among them, the residential area increased by 21.5%.In other words, the downturn in the property market and the amount of housing will be larger and larger. How to digest these housing to be sold has also become a difficult point to resolve problems.The central government has issued a policy, hoping that the local government has transformed these housing acquisitions into affordable housing through low -interest loans, but local governments have no motivation and progress is very slow.In other words, only the level of housing inventory of Chinese real estate is returned to normal, and the real estate market confidence can be established.But now it seems that resolution is a long process.

In other words, regardless of the decline in house prices, or to keep the intersection incident and the real estate market destocking, it is not a short -term policy to resolve it, and it takes a long cycle to resolve it.Therefore, what is the effectiveness of the policy of rescue the city should be quite uncertain, and you can only take a step.This also means that China's economic adjustment is a long -term process.The consensus of the market is that the government should introduce a strong real estate rescue policy to allowThe market stopped stable and returned to the track of stable growth.However, this is far from the actual conditions, but it is not fast.

The author is a Chinese economist