The war in the past year in the Middle East has proven that the power of the great power has been unable to stop the war, and it cannot even have a significant impact on the war. This failure reflects a turbulent world with scattered power. This situation may seem to continue.
Under the promotion of the United States, negotiations on the end of the battle of the Gaza Strip in Israel and Hamas stopped and stopped.In order to avoid the overall war between Israel and the Allah in Lebanon, countries headed by the West were emerging, hoping to stop the occurrence of disasters.After Israel killed Hasan Nasrola, who had killed the leader of the Alone on Friday for many years, the possibility of successful negotiations seemed to be extremely uncertain.
"In a world with a centrifugal force greater than the heart of the heart, more capabilities are in the hands of more people," said Richard Has, Honorary Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee."Middle East is the main case of this dangerous division."
Nasrola has been in charge of the Master Party for more than 30 years, and has made this Shiite organization as one of the world's most powerful folk armed forces.His death left a vacuum that is likely to be filled for a long time to be filled in the Allah.This is a major blow to the main supporter of the Allah, and may even destroy the stability of the Islamic Republic.It is still uncertain whether Lebanon will erupt a comprehensive war.
"Nasrola represents everything of the Lord, and the Lord is the sudden power of Iran," said Gill Capel, a well -known French Middle East expert.He published a book about the turbulence of the world after October 7."Now that the Islamic Republic is weakened, it may be fatal. People can't help asking, who can order the Allah today."
Over the years, the United States is the only country that can exert constructive pressure on Israel and Arab countries.It contributed to the David Camp in 1978, bringing peace to Israel and Egypt, and in 1994, it contributed to the peace between Israel and Jordan.Just more than thirty years ago, the Chairman of the Israel Prime Minister Robin and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, Arafat, shook hands on the White House lawn in the name of peace, but the vulnerable hope represented by this acceptance attitude is gradually breaking.
Since then, the main enemies of the world and Israel have changed.Iran has been a deadly enemy of the United States in the past decades. The influence of the United States on Iranian agents such as Iran and Allah is minimal.The existence of Hamas and Allah, which was designated by Washington as a terrorist organization, actually exceeded the scope of American diplomacy.
The United States does have a long -lasting influence on Israel, especially in military assistance, including President Bayeng's $ 15 billion in package plan this year.However, the strong alliance between the United States and Israel is based on strategic and domestic political considerations, as well as the common values of two democratic countries, which means that Washington almost will definitely not threaten to reduce it -let alone cut off -- The flow of weapons.
On October 7, Hamas slaughtered the Israelites and seized about 250 hostages. Israel's overwhelming military response in Gaza attracted the gentle condemnation of Biden.For example, he called Israel's action "excessive".However, the United States has always been firm in support for its dilemma. At the same time, the number of Palestinian casualties in the Gaza Strip rose to tens of thousands, many of which were civilians.
No matter who as the president, the United States will not abandon such a Jewish country.In the past year, from the American campus to the streets of Europe, the existence of this country has been increasingly questioned.It is this European, less than a century ago, the Jews were killed.
"Even if the United States has changed the policy of Israel, it will only be on the edge," Has said.Despite more and more sympathy for Palestinian career, especially among young Americans.
With the spread of bleeding, other major powers are basically just watching.China is the main importer of Iranian oil. At the same time, it also strives to overthrow the world order led by the United States, led by the United States, which rose from the ruins in 1945. It is the main supporter of all action for this purpose. China is not interested in the role of peaceful creators.big.
Russia is not willing to provide help, especially on the eve of the US election on November 5.In the tricky Ukraine War, Russia relied on Iran's defense technology and drones, any signs of the decline in the United States, or any opportunity to put the United States into the Middle East quagmire, Russia's enthusiasm is no less enthusiastic than China.
According to the past behavior of former President Trump, if he returned to the White House, Moscow may think that a leader who would explain to President Putin returned.
In regional countries, none of the countries are strong enough, and no country has sufficient promises to Palestine's cause and can fight Israel in military affairs.In the end, Iran adopted a cautious attitude because it knew that the cost of a comprehensive war might be the end of the Islamic Republic; Egypt was worried about a large number of Palestinian refugees poured into; Saudi Arabia seeking to establish a Palestinian country, but it would not sacrifice Saudi life.
As for Qatar, it provides hundreds of millions of dollars of funds for Hamas each year, partly used to build a maze -like tunnel network. Some of the tunnels are 76 meters deep, and Israel's hostages are detained there.The Israeli Prime Minister Neitanahu and its like -mindedness believe that Hamas is an effective way to weaken the Palestinian power agency on the west bank of the Jordan River, so it can destroy any opportunity to realize peace.
The disaster on October 7 is also the apex of the indifferent manipulation of Arab and Israel's indifference to the foundation of Palestine.One year has passed, and no one knows how to clean up the endgame.
Because there is no coherent international response, Neitanahu and Hamas leaders, the mastermind of Yehei Schihaxal, who attacked on October 7, will not face any consequences.The end point is not clear, but it will definitely cause more life to lose.
Neitanahu has always avoided the United States to achieve Saudi Arabia -probably the most important country in the Arab and Islamic world -the normalization of the relationship between the relationship is because of the price of this will be the establishment of the Palestinian country.Make some serious commitments, and this is what he is committed to stopping in his political career.
Neitanahu intentionally extend the war to avoid formal punishment by military and intelligence errors that caused the attack on October 7 -the responsibility of this disaster can only be on the head of the Prime Minister -which allows any diplomacy to make any diplomacy.Efforts have become complicated.He is still trying to avoid personal allegations against his fraud and corruption.He is dragging time. At present, his methods include basically not to make any representations, and have been dragging until the US election on November 5th, and Trump, who is regarded by him as a powerful allies, may be elected.
Sending their children to the Israeli family on the battlefield do not know whether their commanders are committed to seizing all opportunities to realize peace and take these young soldiers home.Many Israelis said this is the corrosion of the soul of the nation.
As for Sima, Israel's hostage in his hands gave him a chip.He was obviously indifferent to the losses of the Palestinian's huge life in Gaza, because it had a considerable influence on world public opinion -as more and more Palestinian children were killed, world public opinion gradually shifted to opposing Israel.
In short, Sinvar has no reason to change his route; more than, the "turbulent era" of Stephen Heinz, chairman of the Rockefeller Brothers Foundation in Charity Organization,The world will not change his direction for him.
"Those institutions that have been guiding international relations and global issues since the middle of the 20th century are obviously no longer capable of solving the problem of the new millennium," Heinz wrote in a recent article."They are inefficient, ineffective, and out of time. In some cases, they are simply waste."
This is also a lesson that Hamas launched an attack in one year.
