The Federal Reserve Board lowered 50 basis points from the target range of the federal fund, to the level between 4.75%and 5.00%.This is the first time that the Federal Reserve has been reduced for four and a half years.It marks the US dollar to open the interest rate reduction channel.According to the Fed's forecast, the U.S. Federal Fund interest rate will reach 4.4%at the end of this year, that is, 4.25%to 4.5%of the target interval, it will fall to 3.4%by 2025, and it is expected to fall to 2.9%by 2026.
In the case of successive interest rates such as Canada and the European Union, the Fed finally reduced interest rates.In history, whenever the "US dollar tide" came to the interest rate reduction stage, the liquidity of the release of the release of the release is often poured out like floods, and it acquired high -quality assets of low prices in other economies, especially in the world, to develop low -priced economies.This process is usually accompanied by political turmoil in regions and countries, as well as tight security situation in the region.Therefore, with the opening of the US dollar at the opening of interest rates, many countries will maintain high vigilance in order to deal with various impacts in the fields of economic finance.
From the perspective of exchange rate, US interest rate reduction will inevitably cause the attraction of US dollar assets.The dollar began to depreciate, and currencies in RMB, yen and many other countries will continue to appreciate.This will generate a chain reaction, cause funds to flow out of the United States, find a higher income opportunity, leading the currency for reorganization in various countries, and the exchange rate reverses.Especially, after the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022, there has been a depreciation pressure, and even fell to nearly $ 7.3.With the opening of the US dollar interest rate reduction channel, the US dollar's exchange rate on the RMB will approach 7 rapidly. It is expected that it will continue to rise in the next few years, and 6.3 and 5 are possible.
The chain reaction brought by interest rate reduction is usually to reduce the cost of borrowing and stimulate economic growth.However, the United States is different. The global positioning attributes of the US dollar determine that the interest rate reduction will also directly affect the performance of global asset prices, especially the performance of non -US dollar currency assets such as emerging markets and precious metals.The Fed's interest rate reduction will attract more foreign capital into the Chinese market, especially the stock and bond market, and the inflow of funds will further have a positive impact on China's asset prices.
The pressure on the spread of China and the United States will also be relieved with the Fed's interest rate reduction.This provides more operation flexibility for the Central Bank of China.This year, China has reduced interest rates twice, and the interest rate reduction rate of stock loans is also possible.The US interest rate reduction is about to enter the liquidity loose cycle, which provides a favorable environment for China to introduce more and more in line with the market's monetary policy.In particular, the global interest rate reduction has brought about a loose currency environment. After years of downturn in the Chinese real estate market, it may seek a new path of high -quality development under the blessing of internal and external funds.
If the Chinese stock market and the real estate market that has been sluggish for many years can be reborn and get out of the predicament, the Chinese consumer market will inevitably reach a new level. The upgrading of manufacturing and technological innovation will continue to promote the high -quality development of China's real economy.These are key elements that promote the continuous appreciation of the RMB.
In addition to the important external factors of the US dollar, China's open measures and monetary policies provide internal impetus more than the appreciation of RMB.As of the end of July, foreign investors held 4.5 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds (RMB, the same below, about S $ 820 billion), a record high.The proportion of RMB in global trade financing is 6%, ranking second.China has continued to strengthen communication and cooperation with international financial organizations and major economies of currency, actively participate in international financial governance, and enhance open capacity in expanding international cooperation.As of the end of August, the scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserves was 3.3 trillion US dollars, and it has maintained its status of the largest foreign exchange reserve country for 19 consecutive years.China's economic stable operation and long -term improvement, providing support for the continued stability of foreign exchange reserves.If the Fed ’s interest rate reduction is a fuse to promote the appreciation of the renminbi, it is believed that the RMB will be sharply appreciated based on a comprehensive judgment on the real economy of the Chinese real economy.
Of course, concerns about the Chinese economy have always existed, and many issues are really tricky.Will the real estate bubble burst?Will the appreciation of the renminbi affect the export?How to deal with local debt risks?These problems are constantly cracking, and various response policies and solutions have been introduced one after another.On the other hand, the federal government debt is high, US stocks are high, and the wave of US dollars will rise, and US dollars in US dollars are in a precarious situation.There is an old saying in China called "ideas are more difficult than difficulties", and I hope that the United States can also find various solutions.However, from the perspective of objective situations such as economic and finance, the depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the RMB are the general trend.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction boots landed, and the world economy ushered in a loose cycle. Both the capital chain and the industrial chain will change. As long as it is slightly turning the earth, thinking about the future trend, the weakening of the US dollar and the strengthening of the renminbi will be an indisputable fact.
The author is a researcher at Anhui Academy of Social Sciences
