Source: Bloomberg
Author: Charlotte Yang, Tania Chen, Shulun Huang
The rise of the world's attention has not allowed some major financial institutions in the world to be convinced.
Including fund managers and strategists from Jingshun, Morgan Chase Asset Management, HSBC Global Private Bank and Wealth Management, and Nomura Holdings, said that before the Chinese government used real gold and silver to fulfill its stimulus promise, they rebounded this time.Holding suspicion and worrying that many stocks have been overestimated.
Since late September, with a series of economic, financial, and market support measures have revived investor confidence, stocks in the world's second largest economy have risen sharply.The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index has risen by more than 30%since early September, and has performed best among more than 90 global stock index traced by Bloomberg.
"In the short term, the market mood may be excessively expanded, but people will eventually return to the fundamentals." Ma Lei, the chief investment director of Jingshun Hong Kong and China, said. "Because of this rebound, some stocks have become too high."He said," These stocks lack a clear value proposition based on its possible profit performance. "
In the past month, the Chinese government has announced a series of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and providing billions of US dollars of liquidity support to the stock market, and promised to end the long -term decline in real estate prices.Although there are many optimistic factors that support the stock market continued to rise, the dawn of falsely appeared many times before. The last time was the rebound in February, and it was completely dissipated.
The recent surge in Chinese stocks has re -recognized its influence on a broader emerging market index, and those fund managers who hold lower positions in this largest developing country have performed well.The continuity of rebound not only affects the annual performance of the index fund, but also directly affects countries with trade and investment with China.
Ma Lei is one of the few relatives of the Chinese market at the beginning of the year, and now he said that he did not push investment.
"The price of a batch of stocks rose 30%to 40%, almost reaching a historical high," he said. "In the next 12 months, whether the fundamentals can reach the level before the peak value, it is more to me.Not sure.
Morgan Datong Asset Management is also cautious.
Xu Changtai, the chief Asian market strategist of Morgan Asset Management, said that China needs to adopt more policy measures to boost economic activities and confidence.The policies announced so far will help smooth deleveraging processes, but still need to repair the balance sheet.
Xu Changtai also pointed out that the uncertainty of the peripheral market may curb the rise of the Chinese stock market.
"Only one month before the US election remains, many investors believe that the United States regards China as the consensus of two parties for economic and geopolitical opponents." He said, "At presentThe bottom, and wait for the new policy to be firm. "
HSBC private banks are still worried that China's measures are not enough to reverse the country's long -term economic growth trend.
"In order to maintain the momentum of economic recovery and support growth, to achieve the goal of about 5%of GDP growth in 2024, it is necessary to adopt a greater financial easing policy." Fan Zhuoyun, the chief investment director of the private bank and wealth management, said, ""At present, China's GDP growth rate will slow from 4.9%in 2024 to 4.5%in 2025. Based on this expectation, we have a neutral attitude towards mainland China and Hong Kong stocks."
MG Investment Management of the Asian Fixed Early Income Fund Manager Xinqi believes that if there is no major liquidity risk, it is expected that the Chinese government will announce the fiscal stimulus plan at the end of October, and the market may become more stable at that time.This plan may promote investors to re -evaluate the impact of the stimulus policy on the economy in the next 1 to 2 quarters.With the change of China's fiscal policy, it is expected to take targeted measures in the fourth quarter to support credit growth and increased household consumption.
However, some weeterous people believe that the valuation of Chinese stocks is still low due to selling in the past three years.
"Bounce can continue, and there are still a large amount of funds that need to be balanced, especially from global investors", Matthew Quaife, the head of Fidelity International Global Diverse Asset Investment Management."We know that the valuation is still lower than the average level. From a technical point of view, the valuation may rise further."
Nomura Holdings's attitude is even more pessimistic, warning that the rise of this round of stock market may soon shift from prosperity to depression.
Nomura Economist Lu Ting and others wrote in a report to customers that in the worst scene, "the stock market will collapse after the stock market fanatic, similar to the situation that happened in 2015."They said that the probability of this result is likely to be "much higher" than some more optimistic scenarios.
Just as investors and strategists are cautious about investing more funds into the Chinese stock market, they are also careful to consider what stimulus measures will eventually mean for national debt and currency.
Since the rise of the stock market, China Treasury bonds have fallen. Before that, investors purchased insurance shelter assets, and the yield of national bonds has reached a record low in a row.
"There are still some major challenges to be resolved, this is not an easy way." Song Lin, chief economist of Ing Bank Greater China, said, "We need to ensure that policy stimulus can effectively curb the decline in the real estate market, and butNot just caused hot money into the stock market. "
He said that if the stock market cools, bonds may become beneficiaries."If there is any problem in the next step, we will face the risk of returning to the environment in the past few months."
RMB traders will pay attention to the intermediate price set by the central bank on Tuesday.In the past month, the RMB appreciation on the shore has exceeded 1%, which is the key level of 7 yuan, and breaking the obstacle may cause further rise.
