On September 30, the last trading day before the Chinese National Day holiday, the stock market was like a shocked rabbit.The trillion transaction record; the Shanghai and Shenzhen transactions exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan in a single day, a record high; the Shenzhen -Chengzhi refers to a single day of 10.67%, and the cumulative increase of 30.26%on the fifth day, setting a record.
At the same time, the stimulus policy of the property market was also introduced one after another. On September 29, the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development said to support first -tier cities to use the real estate market to regulate autonomy.The three first -tier cities in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen followed up overnight, so that the proportion of mortgage interest rates and down payment for housing and down payment across the country has declined to the lowest level.
The property market and stock market, most of the people's most direct body feel of the macroeconomics comes from this.One week before the National Day, the two markets suddenly injected the policy bonus that exceeded the expected expected.
In terms ofIn terms of property market, the policy period of adjusting the interest rate of stock mortgages, the lowest down payment ratio of the second house, and extending the "16 Finance Articles" and other policies, and optimize the policies of affordable housing re -loan.
On the stock market, the central bank will help companies repurchase their own stocks by loaning bank loans.The central bank will also help securities companies, insurance companies, and other institutional investors to improve the stability of the balance sheet and raise funds.They will be able to borrow assets (such as government bonds) from the People's Bank of China to safe and liquidity, and use assets (such as stocks) with high risks and poor liquidity as mortgages.Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the central bank, said that the total scale of these tools is 800 billion yuan, but if necessary, it can also double or double the limit.
These stimulating strength and density are also perceived by the Pacific Ocean. David TEPPER at David TEPPER of the hedge fund Apaloosa Management said, "That's the place to interview with CNBC,"(China) This is an incredible thing. "When asked what he would buy, he replied, "Everything, everything, everything, thing,".This interview segment is also widely circulated on the Chinese Internet, becoming the best footnote for this round of assets to rise crazy.
Can the property market be heated back?
This round of policies that stimulate the stock market property market are tied together and released in one breath. At 9 am on September 24, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the Central Bank of China, thrown out a package of monetary policy: reduction, interest rate reduction, survival mortgage interest rates, downgraded payment, and first payment payment.Proportion, set up new tools to support the stock market.Policies point to three goals: stable growth, housing prices, and stable stock markets.
The Chinese stock market ushered in just 2 hours later, sweeping the haze of two years in an instant, and rose five days in a row.
The downturn in the property market has performed similar to the stock market in the past few years -under the policy of "housing and not frying", the sales of "cuts" in 2022 have fallen to the bottom of the valley.By May 17 this year, three "big moves" were released within a day -a significant reduction of the down payment ratio; the interest rate of the provident fund loan, the restriction of the interest rate of the commercial loan rate;Stock rooms are used as affordable rooms.
At that time, many media and economists in China used "epic" to describe policy strength, but the property market did not stop falling and continued to hover under the downturn.
But this round of stimulus to the property market is the most direct thing to "unbind" in first -tier cities, and then superimposed the aforementioned financial stimulus, making economists more optimistic.
"This is a positive signal, but if it can be implemented earlier, the effect will be better." Su Yuexiang, chief Chinese economist of economics think tanks, said, "The government is willing to take action to prevent economic spirals from declining, andNot just pay attention to reducing systemic risks. "
Su Yue said that the adjustment of the down payment ratio is more effective than the changes in interest rates, so reducing the down payment ratio of the second house is expected to promote housing upgrades, because many families need to sell existing housing before purchasing new houses.This also explains why the adjustment of the down payment ratio of the first home buyer in May this year has not significantly promoted such house purchase needs.
"Although the down payment ratio has been reduced to a historical low, compared with the loose cycle before 2015, the impact will be relatively mild." Su Yue believes that there will be no prosperity of the price and trading volume in 2015.
"In the case of weak employment market, revenue and employment expectations declined, the family is unwilling to bear more debt, and its repayment ability is still limited. Upgrade and sales of current houses also indicate that the supply of old houses is relatively large, which may give house prices to house prices.Set up the upper limit "Su Su said.
What does the People's Bank of China announce the major economic booster measures? The style has changed?
On September 30, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index continued, with a single -day increase of 8.06%, setting a record of the largest single -day increase since 2008.The single -day increase in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index on September 19, 2008 was 9.46%.
In 2008, China launched a "four trillion" market rescue plan for the rescue of the market, pushing up the stock market.However, some criticism stated that the stimulus plan was regarded as "drinking and quenching thirst", which pushed up the risk of debt and blown the real estate bubble.
China has had the pain caused by "de -capacity, destocking, and deleveraging" for many years.This also defines the economic policy of former Prime Minister Li Keqiang for ten years.
In June 2013, the Barclays Capital Company proposed the concept of "Keqiang Economics": 1. The government does not launch a stimulus policy, but gradually reduces the country's dominant investment behavior;, Reduce borrowing and output ratio; implement economic structure reform, and exchange short pain for long -term sustainable development.These three points are almost related to the side effects of "4 trillion" digestion.
After the new crown epidemic, Li Keqiang bid farewell to the Prime Minister's career, and China's economy was slow and his confidence was insufficient.Test conservative stimulus policies.
This week, before the National Day of China, it seemed to change its style, aside from concerns, and allowed China to take the most interesting stimulus measures since 2008.
The most prominent sign is that the Politburo Conference on the Communist Party of China on September 26 studied the current economic situation and deployed the next economic work.
The Anbang Think Tank, located in Beijing, said that the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting every month, generally only the theme of economic work in April, July, and December.It is rare to hold an economic theme meeting in September.Highlight the importance of the central government's emphasis on the domestic economic situation and macro policies.
Anbang Think Tank believes that this meeting's view of macroeconomic policies is different from the previous tone.Regarding the current economic situation, the meeting emphasized that there are some new situations and problems in the current economic operation.It is more cautious than the "adverse impact caused by the current external environmental changes" at the meeting of the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30, indicating that the current stable growth pressure has been further increased, and the urgency of policy strength is stronger. This is also the current drive policy.Important thrust in the direction.
Earlier, many Chinese economic data in August were lower than market expectations. In August, the retail sales of social consumer goods and industrial production were lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate was 5.3%, and the average unemployment rate from January to August was 5.2%.Data such as the real estate market trend and investment are still weak, and the market confidence is serious.
Anbang Think Tank believes that "Due to the slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter and less than expected, the pressure of steady growth is greater, and an incremental policy needs to be introduced in a timely manner to boost market confidence, ensure that the economic growth of the fourth quarter5%economic goals and tasks are completed. "
