Source: China News Agency

Author: Xia Bin

The end of 2023, this year, the RMB's exchange rate on the US dollar was boasted for most of the time. After falling below the integer mark in May this year, it maintained a two -way fluctuation.

As of December 16, the minimum value of the US dollar in the US dollar on the shore reached 7.3498 on September 8; until the end of October, it fluctuated online on the 7.3 line;The highest value on the 16th has exceeded 7.1.

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve ’s 2023 Interest Conference has been“ do n’t move ”three times in a row and began to discuss the topic of interest rate cuts.Under the circumstances of external liquidity affecting factors, the RMB exchange rate has obtained the driving force for appreciation.

In the third quarter of 2023 in the third quarter of 2023, the implementation report of the Chinese Monetary Policy Implementation Report In the next stage of exchange rate policy, the "three resoluteness" expressions should be added, that is, we must resolutely correct the cyclical behavior of the market and resolutely disrupt the market order behavior.Disposal, resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate over -adjusting, and propose to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable balance.This shows the determination of the Central Bank of China to maintain the steady operation of the foreign exchange market.

So, can this wave of rise at the end of this year lasted until 2024?Can the renminbi return to the 6th range next year?

From the perspective of Guan Tao, the chief economist of BOC Securities, the central bank's exchange rate regulation is only for economic adjustment. There will be about three situations next year.

In neutral situations, the trend of the renminbi is strong, the Fed's monetary policy has shifted, and the toughness of external demand and the recovery of domestic demand are expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets.

In the case of optimism, the RMB trend is stronger, and the US financial turmoil and inflation have accelerated downward, forcing the Fed's monetary policy to quickly loosen. The "Smile Curve" has accelerated, and the RMB may rebound significantly in 2024.

In the case of pessimism, the trend of the RMB is weak. The United States "escaped" the economic recession and re -inflation appeared. The Fed's steering has to be delayed and may even further raise interest rates.Only the positive gap can offset the market's doubts.

Guan Tao reminded that the linear unilateral thinking, in the case where the exchange rate is more flexible, the flexible adjustment of the exchange rate will help release market pressure in time and avoid the accumulation of expected.

Sheng Songcheng, a professor at the China -Europe International School of Industry and Commerce and the Department of Investigation of the People's Bank of China, believes that the spread between China and the United States will enter a stable period, but the Chinese monetary policy needs to consider internal and external balance. This is one of the reasons why China ’s interest rate cuts are more prudent.In the future, the spread between China and the United States and their changes will be one of the important factors that determine the exchange rate. The RMB may maintain a moderate appreciation trend, but the appreciation is limited.

Everbright Securities released a research report stating that looking forward to 2024, the China -US economic and monetary policy cycle is expected to move from back to convergence, driving the yuan to enter the appreciation channel, but the space is subject to the decline of the US dollar index.

Cui Li, managing director and macro -research director of Jianyin International, believes that there are two factors for favorable RMB on the exchange rate of the US dollar next year: the first is trade, and the trade surplus is supported by structural factors. Trade next year should be positive growth; secondIt is the US dollar, which is expected to continue to weaken in the volatility of the dollar next year.

Cui Li said that as the Fed stopped raising interest rates and the US dollar fell, the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar would rise, and we predict that the RMB will continue to strengthen the US dollar in fluctuations and will return to "7".