In the past year, German real estate has fallen into a cold winter. Nearly a few days, the news of the financial crisis of builders will come. The recent crisis is European real estate giants and assets of 27 billion euros (about S $ 39.3 billion) Signa announced bankruptcy on November 29.The German real estate crisis has been interpreted by some media as a consequence of "housing housing does not stir -fry", which seems to be similar to that of Chinese real estate issues.
Germany has a long history of rent control, but in recent years, it has risen too violently. In 2015, it launched a more comprehensive rent control law, which is not good at time with the current crisis.Although real estate companies in the two countries also face the crisis of broken capital chain, China is overpopulation in houses, and Germany is insufficient. The greater difference is that most Chinese wealth is concentrated on purchasing houses, and most Germans are only tenants.The impact of the real estate crisis on their personal assets is not so great.
The German real estate industry accounts for a low ratio of GDP (GDP), about 12%, and the low tide of real estate will also lead to a decrease in demand for construction workers and increase the unemployment rate.It may cause deterioration of public security.Compared with other developed economies, the proportion of US real estate accounts for GDP is 12.88%. Surprisingly, according to Caixin Media reported in March this year, China's real estate accounts for not as high as the United States and Germany, only 7.3%.At first glance, the problem is not so serious, but according to the statistics of Chinese economist Ren Zeping, the real estate contribution to the industry chain accounts for 9.9%, and the two are added 17%.
Different from Germany, China's real estate development is also highly related to local fiscal revenue and related local bonds and urban investment bonds, which is enough to constitute the systemic risk of finance.Moreover, as most Chinese people's wealth is concentrated in real estate, the downside trend of real estate will reduce people's assets and have a negative impact on domestic demand due to reduced assets.
Compared with developed economies, there are fewer speculation activities in German real estate, and related rent control and development clauses have been limited to Germany for a long time. Therefore"Stir -fried" has nothing to do with it.There are two main problems: one is that the cost of building caused by the Russian and Ukraine war rises, and real estate developers cannot pass the cost to buyers; the other is that with the US interest rate hike cycle, real estate developers have difficulty financing, so the wave of bankruptcy has followed.
The opposite of German crisis is the opposite of China
As mentioned above, Germany and China have the same symptoms, but their influence is completely different.China needs to boost investors' confidence in the real estate industry. With capital investment, the real estate industry has hopes to return to the rising track and solve problems such as rotten tail buildings.But so far in Germany, real estate prices are still rising.One of the reasons for real estate companies is in the predicament. One of the reasons is the German -style "pre -sale housing system". The payment process and engineering schedule of the purchase of the house are hook. Each percentage of several percentage is promoted, the buyer pays the corresponding percentage of house purchase fees.
The German houses that have been completed recently are signed a house purchase contract before the crown disease epidemic.Reduce the quality of the house to accommodate the price.On the other hand, under the wave of interest rate hikes in the United States, it is difficult for real estate companies to financing through financial means. European real estate companies generally issue bonds to financing. However, in high -interest environment, the interest returns of sovereign bonds are more attractive than real estate companies.In the harsh financing environment, in addition to the breach of contract, the real estate company can only go bankrupt.
Of course, the cold winter of the German real estate industry has a lot of impact on the economy. At present, the German unemployment rate has climbed to 5.9%. Due to the breach of contract in the short term, it has also made the supply of houses more scarce.In the space, the Tsugs government originally promised to build 400,000 residential units each year, but only 75 % of the progress last year. In the first half of this year, only 135,000 households applied for construction.Insufficient ability, refugee issues will become greater social problems.
But compared with the high housing prices and financial risks in Asian countries, Germany's real estate crisis still does not belong to the systemic risk of finance. The German government needs to do three main points: First, reduce inflation. In September this year, inflation has fallen.By the low level since February last year, the crisis of energy and raw materials has been alleviated; the second is to rescue the emergency to provide liquidity for the difficult real estate companies to pass the difficulty; the third is to participate in the contradiction between developers and home buyers and allow developmentIn the case of high construction costs, it can pass the cost.
German real estate has essential differences with China. China has experienced many years of housing prices soaring, and now it has ushered in a downward trend; Germany has continued to rise although rents have fallen in recent months.Germany is insufficient.Therefore, the problem of Germany is to make the real estate company profitable, and the problem naturally relieves it. In the short term, it will not affect the vitality of the German economy.
The author is a Hong Kong media in Germany
