Guan Xiuying: The Federal Reserve has three interest -making interests to enter the ＂

Author: Guan Xiuying

Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency

After the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) held the last meeting of this year, it was announced in the early morning of the 14th. The members unanimously decided to maintain interest rates from 5.25 to 5.5 %. The 22 -year high is unchanged.This time, it has also begun in March 2022. After a total of 11 times in interest rate hikes, the third consecutive meeting has been negotiated and represented by the soldiers, which is in line with market expectations.President Powell said that the meeting discussed the interest rate at this meeting, and the discussion about when the interest rate reduction was in the initial stage and would make a prudential decision.Although the Fed does not rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes at the right time, it is believed that interest rates may have reached or approached the peak.

The Federal Reserve Lotal Map shows that it is expected to reduce interest rates 3 times next year, 25 basis points each time, and it is expected to reduce interest rates 4 times in 2025.A statement after the Federal Reserve said that economic activities have slowed from the third quarter and employment growth has slowed.As inflation cools down, officials believe that they will no longer need to increase interest rates to relieve the pressure of consumer prices.Officials predict that by the end of this year, the currency rate will slow to 2.8%, and by the end of 2024, it will be reduced to 2.4%.

Analysis and description is that next year, the United States and even the global situation will enter the "interest rate reduction year", and believe that the United States will hold the presidential election next year.

In this regard, Mai Cuicai, an associate professor of the Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance of the School of Industry and Commerce of the Hong Kong Baptist University, said in an interview with a reporter from the Hong Kong News Agency on the 14th that the current interest rate in the United States is at the stage or approaching the top.Slowing but still at a high position."In this case, is the interest rate reduction next year? How much is reduced? I think it is still too early. The decision of the future discussion decision will continue to depend on the latest economic data and continue to raise interest rates in the past year.The influence, in the case of uncertainty in the trend of interest rates, I believe that a high -interest environment may still be maintained for a while. "Mai Cai said:" The fastest will wait until the end of January next year, that is, the next currency in the Federal Reserve's next currency.The policy meeting can only make judgments after reviewing the economic data of 2023. "

As for the economic outlook in 2024?Mai Cai pointed out that there are many factors affecting the economy. In addition to the interest rate hikes and interest rates of central banks, geopolitical and other factors are also about the overall situation.For example, will it change with the end of the Russian -Ukraine conflict and the turn of Pakistani conflict in 2024, and the tension of the Korean Peninsula has changed?He said he believes that he needs to observe for a while to judge.

Before the Fed issued a resolution, the US Treasury Minister Yellen, on the 13th, said on the 13th local time that to some extent, with the decline in inflation, interest rates will naturally decline because the actual interest rate will rise, which will lead to financeThe situation is tight.The impact of interest rates on the economy depends on the level of interest rates relative to inflation rates.As inflation decreases, policy interest rates will become stricter if the policy interest rates remain stable.Yellen expects that inflation will continue to decline, and it is expected that inflation will drop near 2%by 2024.

In addition, the European Central Bank and the British Bank will announce interest rate resolutions on the evening of the 14th, and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate resolution on the 19th.Brad Bechtel, a foreign exchange strategist, said it is necessary to see how much the European Central Bank's reaction will change.If the European Central Bank and the British Bank of the United Kingdom follow the Fed's pigeons, the US dollar may not change much.