Source: Bloomberg
The global diesel market is flashing the economic slowdown signal.
In China, the number of trucks on highways has declined significantly in recent weeks.In Europe, the premium of diesel than crude oil futures has recently fallen to the lowest level of more than a year.S & P said globally, the demand for the United States in 2023 will shrink by 2%.It is not considered 2020 -the economy is short -term in a large area of stagnation, and 2%will be the largest decline in US diesel consumption since 2016.
Debnil Chowdhury, the person in charge of the S & P American fuel and oil refining business, said that they believe that the current economic climate is one of the worst during the financial crisis and crown disease in the 2008-2009 financial crisis in recent years.
From the perspective of which perspective, many large economies in the world have weakened this heavy mechanical fuel; all kinds of machinery from commercial truck teams to building equipment is driven by diesel.This is regarded as an early signal of weakening industrial activities and decreased consumer expenditure, which keeps economic recession observers highly vigilant.
"Democratic demand can act as a leading indicator of overall growth and early signs of weakening family expenditure," saying Wen Ayers, a senior economist in the United States."Democracy demand is expected to decline, which is consistent with the increase in the risk of the entire economy."
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted the trade route, diesel was once the world's most popular refined oil, but recently its price has continued to fall, due to the poor prospects of some economies in the world.Economists said that in the next year, the possibility of economic recession in the United States was 65%and Europe was 49%.China's risk of recession is lower, but the shadow of strict new crown epidemic prevention measures still requires consumer confidence to improve significantly.
The fall of diesel demand is mainly related to truck transportation. Such demand accounts for about 60%of the total demand for diesel in China, and it accounts for more than 70%in the United States.Data tracked by the Ministry of Transportation of China show that as of the week of April 9, the number of trucks driving on domestic highways has decreased by 8%.According to data from Longzhong Information, China's commercial diesel inventory (excluding state -owned refineries) has increased to an eight -month high in early April.
A previous folk survey showed that China's manufacturing activities in March accidentally slowed down and led the Asian manufacturing index to decline.Dagne Ho, a senior analyst of Wood Mackenzie, said that the government, including Indonesia -the government, has begun to reduce fuel subsidies -emerging markets, including emerging markets, have also seen demand weakened with economic growth.
Similar trends have also appeared in other parts of the world.
"Due to the downturn of heating demand, macro adverse factors are shadowed on demand prospects, and European demand is weak throughout winter," Energy Aspects LTD senior refined oil analyst Koen Wessels.
Bob Costello, chief economist of the American Truck Transport Association, said that in the United States, the consumption of truck transportation -and then diesel -has been hit by industrial production, residential construction, and retailers digesting high inventory.According to a indicator of supply chain intelligence company Freightwaves, the cargo volume fell in March to the lowest level of the same period in the past five years.
The root cause of the slowdown of American truck transportation is that the consumer expenditure model has changed: because of crown diseases, they need to pass the time to pass the online order, and become current vacation and experience consumption.When inflation is squeezing the family budget, the first thing people stop buying is cheap packaging products such as soda, which is the so -called "large -scale consignment" in the freight industry.
"Whenever consumers are tightly eaten by inflation, they will affect cheap products that are often transported in large quantities," said Craig Fuller, CEO of Freightwaves.Personal decisions such as not drinking soda will have a macro impact, thereby reducing the overall commodity circulation in the economy.
The decline in demand for diesel in the United States will be particularly obvious; the large -scale layoffs of the technology industry and the outbreak of the banking crisis make the region face financial pressure.S & P Chowdhury said that local diesel demand will decrease by 5%this year, more than twice the national average.
U.S. container imports -barometer of trucks and train diesel consumption -also facing pressure.In Los Angeles, imports fell to the lowest level since March 2020.In China, data tracked by the Ministry of Transport showed that the container throughput of the main ports fell by 5%in the week of April 9.
"We believe that the downlink space for China's diesel demand in the second half of the year is greater than the uplink space," said Mia Geng, the oil service director of the industry consulting company FGE."Considering that the global economic adverse factors, especially the West, China will need to rely on domestic consumption to support its manufacturing activities."
