Source: Voice of the United States
Author: Lin Baihong
U.S. Secretary of State Brosky visited Vietnam from April 14th to 16th, meeting Vietnamese Prime Minister Fan Mingzheng and General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, and celebrated the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a "comprehensive partnership" between the two countries.Experts said that the Vietnamese visit to the Vietnamese Vietnam of Blingken is of great significance to the United States and Vietnam, but it is expected that the two parties will not immediately upgrade the relationship to "strategic partnership".Essence
On Friday (April 14), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam's capital to start a three -day visit.
According to the official website of the US State Department, as the United States and Vietnam celebrate the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive partnership, Brinken's visit to Vietnam will "promote important discussions with Vietnamese partners ... Discuss our interconnection, prosperity, prosperity, prosperityThe common vision of peace and tough India -Pacific region. "Voice of Vietnam's official media in Vietnam reported that during the visit to Vietnam, Brinkee was held talks with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong to discuss consolidation and promote the promotion of the two countries.Digital economy, green economy, cooperation should deal with measures in the fields of climate change.
This is the first visit to Vietnam since Brinken has served as the Secretary of State of the United States. In addition to discussing multiple issues with Hanoi seniors, whether it will successfully promote the upgrading of US -Vietnam relations, it is also the focus of attention from all walks of life.At the end of March this year, US President Biden and Ruan Fuzhong held a telephone talks. After the meeting, the two sides each issued a statement, saying that they agreed to promote the further deepening development of bilateral relations.
In this regard, observer believes that Brins' Hanoi trip will make the United States and Vietnam a substantial cooperation on the next level, and even promote the recent visit to the highest leaders of the two countries, but Vietnam is also worried that the United States and Vietnam will immediately upgrade the bilateral relations will be.Standarding Beijing's sensitive nerves, so the two countries may still temporarily maintain the current "comprehensive partnership."
Will the US -Vietnam relations be upgraded immediately?
Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting scholar of the Vietnamese research project of the Southeast Asian Institute (ISEAS) in Singapore Think Tank, told the Voice of America: "I think the Hanoi line of Anthony BrinkenInterviews, there is no doubt that this will strongly promote the upgrading bilateral relations in Vietnam and Washington. However, I don't think they will announce the upgrade into 'strategic partnerships' when Brinkee is in Hanoi, but the visits of Blint may contribute, Or General Secretary Ruan Fuzhong visited Washington, bilateral relations may be upgraded at that time. "
Vietnam's current "comprehensive partnership" with the United States is only the third -level diplomatic relationship of Vietnam, which is two grades lower than the "comprehensive strategic partnership between Vietnam and China".However, when US Vice President Harris visited Vietnam in 2021, he had proposed that bilateral upgrades were upgraded into 'strategic partnerships ", but after Harris's visit, the relationship between the two countries has not changed.
However, KHANG VU, a doctoral candidate for the Political Science Department of Boston College in the United States, said that the United States Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant Secretary of State of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, stated before Brinton went to Vietnam that regardless of the name of the United States and VietnamWhat is the relationship between the above? The current cooperation between the two sides is solid and extensive. Therefore, whether Vietnam will upgrade the relationship between the two parties during the visit to Vietnam in Broncolon is not the most concerned part of the United States, but focusing on the substantial interaction between the two parties.
Wu Chunkang told the Voice of America: "The United States may think that if Vietnam does not upgrade the relationship, but if the United States is still moving along the same road, the two parties will still maintain good interaction. More importantly, this time the Bollingken visitVietnam means that he will participate in the Earth Ceremony of the New American Embassy in Hanoi, which shows that (the United States to Vietnam) has a long -term commitment because the rental period of the new embassy is at least 99 years. What I want to say is that we need to pay more attention to the United States and Vietnam.Actual interaction, not just the title of relationship. "
Will Sino -Vietnam relations be impacted?
While visiting Vietnam, as Blingken, according to the Malaysian Bright Daily, the Yangpu Maritime Affairs Bureau, located in Hainan, China, announced earlier that it was carried out in the northern bay of the northern Bay near Vietnam from April 13th to 15th.
In this regard, Song Zhenzhao, a specially appointed professor of the Department of Political Science and Focusing on Southeast Asian Studies, said that the act of this move and the recent announcement of the establishment of a prohibited area in northern Taiwan, it is likely to be in the Hanoi of BrinkenAfter that, the foreign minister meeting of the seven major industrial groups (G7) will be expressed dissatisfaction, but according to the current international situation, even if China shows strongly to the United StatesPractice, especially for radical expansion operations in the South China Sea, may excessively stimulate some of Asia's excessive countries, and give the United States an opportunity to actively intervene in the United States, which is not conducive to the cooperation and development of China and Asia's Diandan.
Mainland China claims to have sovereignty over almost all waters in the South China Sea, but Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, and Indonesia are also sovereignty in this film, which has made this sea area controversial in recent years.
Song Zhenzhao told the voice of the United States: "The diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam do not want to touch the sovereignty issue of the South China Sea (South China), but it often becomes the reason for Vietnam's tough resistance. If China fills in the South Island ReefHaiwen Island and militaryization will inevitably arouse the anger of Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, which will give the United States more deeply intervening in the South China Sea opportunity and even establish a military alliance with these countries. Therefore, China is well known to the ASEAN(Yajia'an) The country's diplomacy is only drawn, and there is no tough countermeasure. "
Wu Chunkang of Boston College in the United States said that although it is unclear whether the Hanoi trip to Brinken is currently not clear, whether China will take other countermeasures against the United States and even Vietnam, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam went to Beijing in October last year, and and with the same asChinese President Xi Jinping's meeting has upgraded the possibilities of the United States and Vietnam. Therefore, even if the Blingken visit further deepened the US -Vietnam relations, Sino -Vietnam relations may not be greatly impacted by it.
Wu Chunkang said: "The US -Vietnam relations have never been between the United States and Vietnam, but also about third parties, that is, China. In fact, China is not only at present, but also will always be Vietnam's most important security partners. China isVietnam's neighbors are much stronger than Vietnam, but the United States is far away from Vietnam. This is why (Vietnam Communist Party) is very important for General Secretary Ruan to visit China last year because he has the opportunity to actually inform his Chinese partners. Vietnam may upgrade and the United States.The relationship, but this is not a bad thing for China, because Vietnam will continue to pay attention to China's concerns and interests, and General Secretary Ruan visit China first can visit Washington this year, which shows that Vietnam has always respected China highly. " Experts: Vietnam's risk aversion strategy is still unchanged
Vietnamese research project visiting scholar Ruan Kejiang said that Vietnam is regarded as an important member of the U.S. Indo -Pacific strategy, and if Vietnam maintains good relationships with the United States, it will also bring many political and economic benefits, or even evenIt is a long -term security guarantee.However, Ruan Kejiang also said that even if the US -Vietnam relations have been upgraded due to the Vietnamese visit of Brosky, Vietnam will still not give up the strategy of taking all chips on a certain power, which isHe is committed to a balance between the United States and China.
Ruan Kejiang said: "You never know who will win in this great country's competition, so it may be more wise for not choosing a border station like Vietnam or other countries in Southeast Asia.The risk strategy will definitely bring risks to Vietnam with the United States or an alliance with other powers to compete with other powers. Therefore, Vietnam will continue to be a swinging country between the United States and China in order to gain benefits for a long time. "
Southeast Asian expert Song Zhenzhao alsoConsistent with Ruan Kejiang thinks that even if the United States is more intense in the future, Hanoi will not easily choose the side stations from the two major powers, and will strive to uphold the "pro -beauty and pro -China" line.
Song Zhenzhao said: "Overall, the Vietnamese government will not be willing to take the risk of bordering stations of 'Shezhong' and 'Beauty'. For the Vietnamese government, only to avoid it between China and the United States.In the pattern of two -handed strategies of insurance diplomacy, Vietnam can obtain the country's largest interest between the United States and China. Based on this, in the face of the future development of the United States, China and Vietnam triangle, basically Vietnam will not interfere, involve or involve or involve or involve or involve or involve or involve or involveFalling into the predicament of the relationship between China and the United States, only the strong between China and the United States will be enhanced. And this triangle relationship has become a balanced confrontation relationship in the seesaw, but it is only based on Vietnam as the pillar. "
