Comment: US dollar and RMB dual currency system?

Source: Wang Bao

Wangbao Society Review

The United States suspended the US dollar in 1971 to exchange with gold, and opened the era of US dollars. When the US Treasury Secretary Connery responded to international criticism, "the US dollar is our currency, it is your problem", which fully revealed the United States.Bulletin thinking.The so -called US dollar hegemony, in simple terms, is based on the interests of the United States to pass the possible economic imbalance risks of currency to other countries.The world order has opened the era of global prosperity.

The trend of going to the US dollar is obvious

After the Cold War, no matter from the aspects of military forces, economy, finance, and technology, the United States is the only super strong in the world, and even the dollar has become the world's most important currency.The most preserved foreign exchange assets, when countries around the world (especially emerging market countries) are regarded as the most important media and tools for commodity trade, investment, or establishing their own foreign exchange reserves.

According to SWIFT statistics, the most important use of currency in international payment is still the US dollar. In 2022, the proportion of 41.3%is as high as 41.3%.%) And RMB (2.3%).The latest official foreign exchange reserve currency composition (COFER) announced by IMF also pointed out that although the proportion of the US dollar has continued to decline, as of the end of 2022, the US dollar is still the largest reserve currency holding in the world.3 times the second euro (20.5%).Not to mention, the foreign exchange transaction data surveyed by the International Clenging Bank (BIS) (200%of the buying and selling), the proportion of the US dollar is as high as 88.5%, the number of euro ranked 30.5%, and the US dollar is 58%.

These numbers are clearly stated that the short -term international status is still difficult to shake.However, under the trend of China's rise, the risk of overflowing the U.S. monetary policy to other countries has begun to be more and more criticized and resisted.IMF's recent alert. Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, based on ideological and financial sanctions, many non -US camp countries are accelerating the transfer and decentralization of the US dollar, and even intend to establish a non -US dollar system payment, liquidation and settlement system.These de -US dollar behaviors may be threatened by the dominant position of the US dollar global currency.

Especially for more than this year, as U.S. debt has been sold on sale and the attraction of US dollar assets has been greatly reduced, the trend of global de -US dollarization is becoming more and more obvious.A few days ago, Mainland China announced that it would reach a bilateral trade with Brazil with a local currency settlement agreement. In the future, the RMB and Lilus can be directly exchanged without using the US dollar as the intermediate transaction medium.Last year, Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia and signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with the Saudi State to discuss how to further promote the denomination and settlement of crude oil trade in RMB. Petroyuan replaced Petrodollar process may accelerate.

There are still ceiling still

Not to mention Russia has fully abandoned the US dollar to RMB after being sanctioned by European and American sanctions.According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of the Mainland, the total amount of bilateral import and export trade between China and Russia in 2022 reached 190.3 billion US dollars. In addition to the significant growth of nearly 30 % from 2021, it also wrote a record high.Among them, most of the bilateral cross -border trade is mostly used for RMB valuation and payment liquidation.In February this year, the proportion of RMB in Moscow's overall foreign exchange transaction volume was nearly 40%, surpassing the US dollar for the first time, becoming the most important trading currency.And this trend seems to be difficult to reverse.

Russia's existence to the US dollar to the US dollar not only establishes the status of RMB as a regional currency, but also becomes the best example of RMB internationalization.Doctoral Dr. Rubini bluntly stated that with the increasing status of the RMB, it may break the international monopoly position of the US dollar in the next 10 years, and ultimately form a "dual monetary system" separated by the US dollar and RMB.This prediction may be a little too much before the Russian and Ukraine War, and it is not completely impossible now.

However, to form the strength that is sufficient to compete for the US dollar, whether it is to enhance the willingness to use the RMB in international trade, or the proportion of foreign exchange reserves of the central banks of various countries, or to expand the transactions and buying and selling of RMB assets in the international financial marketThe renminbi needs to be more international. The transparency of the mainland currency market, credibility and the supervision of the rule of law of the government also need to be strengthened.However, the internationalization process of the renminbi must be stable and cannot be advanced.In the short term, the "dual monetary system" should be the goal of hard work.