Source: United News Network
Author: Niu Zexun
From the polls announced by Meilizi Island and TVBS recently, Lai Qingde's support seemed to surpass Hou Youyi, Hou's administration satisfaction has also fallen, and the ratio of dissatisfaction has increased slightly.However, further analysis can be found that Lai's rising support is because of the celebration of "setting in one", and Hou's voting ability in the middle and light green voters can still pose a threat to Lai.
First of all, Lai Qingde has "settled in one" in the party, and also cleaned up the battlefield. Of course, the support returned. It did produce a "celebration market", and Lai was the chairman of the party.Saying "the only support Lai Qingde" is more likely to cause the spread of supporting halo.However, the Kuomintang chairman and party candidate may be different people. The party's game rules are in the party chairman and are not candidates. Therefore, before the party was called, Hou's freedom was still limited.As far as the Kuomintang is concerned, Guo Taiming variables, so the characters in the party must publicly say that "the only support Hou" still has suspense, which will inevitably affect the Blue Army supporters.
Secondly, Hou still has the power of voting for the supporters of the Green Army.According to the Two polls, the pro -green people have a decline of 33 % of Hou's satisfaction, and the context is actually very clear, because the blue -green supporters at the end of the election must return to the team.The rate control is only 33 %, indicating that Hou's attraction to light green is still very strong.
Furthermore, the polls show that Hou lost the middle voters.The reasonable inference should be that the municipal news has been covered by the news of the municipal election, and the negative news such as the Kuomintang internal consumption and selection committees will affect the views of the middle voters.However, it can be seen from the polls of the beautiful island. When the three -footed governor, Hou and Lai were actually in the scope of the error, and Lai may not have obviously gaining.In terms of Hou Lai's confrontation, although the support of the middle voters has decreased, it is still higher than Lai. It is still higher than Lai's ability to expand the middle voters in the middle.As long as the Blues can control the variables that the middle voters are displeased and Ke Wenzhe's candidates, Hou's support in the middle voters should be able to rise again.After all, the middle voters who are more unpolkly tend to be. For the strong ideological orientation of "pragmatic Taiwan independence workers", there are still suspense whether they can pay for it.
In summary, with the increase in the popularity of the presidential election, the support attitude towards blue, green, and white elections will affect the administration satisfaction with Hou; however, in these pollsFor changes, the supporters of Green Camp are still satisfied with Hou, and although the overall satisfaction of Hou declines, the dissatisfaction is slightly increased.This proves that Hou has not regressed in municipalities, and the decline in satisfaction should be affected by the political factors of the election.Since Hou is most likely to represent the Kuomintang for election, he must first bear the negative effect of the decline in municipal satisfaction. After all, don't enter the kitchen if you are afraid of heat.More importantly, it is the key to being able to re -flip the cause and the needs of public opinion from the trend of the subtle trend of polls and approach the needs of public opinion.
