Xue Xiaoshan: How does the United States regain the ammunition industry?

Source: Voice of the United States

Author: Xue Xiaoshan

The US Department of Defense officials recently announced a significant increase in ammunition production, but it may not be able to catch up with the speed of ammunition in the Ukrainian war.National Security experts warn that the Ukraine War also highlights the challenges that the US defense industry foundation may face in the Taiwan Strait War. The United States urgently needs to evaluate the needs of the overall ammunition, adopt a variety of measures to increase the foundation of ammunition production and national defense industry, and show to mainland China that the United States can have been in the long run in the long run.The ability to send and supply ammunition and weapon systems to Taiwan during consumption war.

Mark Milley, chairman of the United States Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, said at a hearing at the House Armed Services Commitee in the House of Representatives in the United States Congress that an important lesson in Ukraine was that in a limited regional warfareAmong them, the consumption rate of traditional ammunition is also incredible.

He said, "If a war occurs in the Korean Peninsula, or war between the United States and Russia, the United States and China, the consumption of ammunition will break the table." "We still have a lot of room for effort to ensure that our inventory is sufficient to cope withReal emergencies. "

According to the DEFENSE ONE website, on March 28, the US Army Deputy Minister Gabe Camarillo stated at a seminar at the US Army Association that the United States will turn the monthly output of 155 mm shells over oneFan, reached 24,000, and increased six times within five years.The United States also tries to increase the output of Javelin and guidance of multiple rocket systems.

The United States has invested more than US $ 2 billion (S $ 2.6 billion) on industrial facilities used to manufacture weapons and ammunition this year.Kamalio said that these projects were quickly awarded and funded by Congress and belonged to a 15 -year -old and $ 18 billion plan, which aims to promote the modernization of weapons and ammunition facilities owned by the US government.

The senior vice president of Seth Jones, a senior vice president of the Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research CenterIt is the correct decision to provide military assistance to Ukraine, but the United States can use these systems to train the US military or reserve materials for future war in the Indo -Pacific region.

Will the US military aid Ukraine affect the defense of Taiwan?

One year after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, US military assistance reached US $ 32 billion. From February 2022 to March 2023, it provided Ukraine with more than 8,500 sets of bargaining tank systems, 1600 sets of poisoned air defense systems and 38Himars (Himars).

According to Taiwan media reports, due to the US military assistance in Ukraine, Taiwan has postponed the plan to purchase from the United States from the land -shooting small diameter bomb (GLSDB), which may continue to be purchased three years later.

Jones pointed out that the number of jailers transferred to Ukraine within six months of the Ukrainian War was the same as the number of producing in the United States usually produced within seven years.Even if the production speed is accelerated, it may take several years to supplement the inventory of popular weapons.The export speed of weapon systems such as javelin, stabbing, HIMARS, guided multi -tube rocket launch system (GMLRS) and fish fork anti -ship missiles may mean that the United States does not have enough inventory ammunition to meetneed.

Almost every time the Strategic and International Issues Research Center was referred to the Taiwan Strait War, the United States consumed more than 5,000 various types of long-range missiles in a three-week conflict, Standard 6 (SM-6 6 (SM-6 6 (SM-6 6) Waiting for carrier ammunition will also be consumed in large quantities.In addition, the United States will exhaust the inventory of anti -ship cruise missiles within the first week of the conflict, which can strike the Chinese Navy from the range of the air defense system of mainland China.

Patrick Porter, a professor at the Department of International Security and Strategy at the University of Birmingham University, published a statement that the United States cannot stand on the idea of preventing Mainland China from acting in Taiwan through armed Ukraine. It is just a loose "Domino" card.thinking.Taking weapon supply as an example, the demand for Taiwan and Ukraine has a significant overlap. For example, air defense missiles, anti -tank missiles or rocket launchers that are transported to Ukraine can also be used to deal with the entry of the PLA landing craft or helicopter.

"But fundamentally, the material resources used in a theater (such as personnel, funds, factories, or presidents) cannot be assigned to another theater. The aid plan for Ukraine also moves to Europe with some strategic focus.Washington has transferred thousands of military, navy, logistics, surveillance and reconnaissance assets back to Europe, and at this time, China is increasing its power deployment in priority regions. "Potter wrote.

Benjamin Tkach, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and Public Management of Mississippi State University, told the Voice of the United States that according to the current productivity, the United States will be difficult to meet the needs of the country, Ukraine's needs, and ammunition in Taiwan in Taiwan.Storage demand, the three are different in specific weapons, ammunition and system support, but there are considerable overlapping.

"At present, the United States and Taiwan must explore how Taiwan can obtain, produce, and store ammunition for future conflicts. Some war simulation, including the recent simulation of CSIS, pointed out the possibility of launching blockade in mainland China, which will be serious in the conflict.Obstacles supply. "

John Bradford, a senior researcher at the Lieutenant Colonel of the United States and the Senior Researcher of Nanyang University of Technology, told the Voice of America that the Ukraine War has become a melee, using relatively short -range weaponsPrevent opponents from acting or destroying ground forces.In contrast, at least in the initial stage, the Western Pacific battle will involve a large number of involved forces and remote weapons.

"But in these two conflicts, the main weapons need to have a reliable supply chain. This means that both rely on similarly unsatisfactory small components to be effective. These small components also need to replace it"

He pointed out that for Taiwan's conflict, it is necessary to worry about the high number of confrontation, and it is possible to evolve into a similar Ukrainian war."These confrontations are very important in the first few weeks. If both sides show our determination to see in Russia and Ukraine, the war will delay. If mainland China allows ground forces to enter Taiwan, it looks more like the Ukraine War."

However, the former US Department of Defense is responsible for logistics and supplies, assistant Minister of Defense and the current professional service committee, David Berteau, president and CEO of Professional Services Council.In fact, the ability to assist Taiwan in the United States, "Because it emphasizes and clarify that the United States needs to immediately take action, make better planning and invest in meeting the necessity of the demand for these (arms)."

"Time may not be standing on our side, but we know more now than a year ago. We need to use these (cognitive) to make investment and preparation. This is what you are in the Ministry of National Defense.The progress seen in the action and the budget proposal. "

In addition to different types of ammunition requirements, the logistics environment facing the Taiwan Strait War is also significantly different from the Ukrainian war.Time said that one point to be emphasized about ammunition is the weight and danger of transportation. The vast land boundary between Ukraine and NATO allies Poland makes railway and highway transportation possible.

"I didn't see the about the aboutThe analysis of the transportation capacity required by Taiwan when conflicts occur, which will be a key issue.The controversial airspace and the potential capabilities surrounding Taiwan in mainland China may need to deploy all the ammunition required for the Taiwan conflict in advance, which is the second challenge that is different from the Ukrainian war.Taiwan and the United States must formulate a plan to ensure diversification of inventory, protection, large scale and maintenance."He said.

The foundation of the US defense industry after World War II was amazing and weak, and urgently needed to show China to reinforce Taiwan's ability

At present, the foundation of the defense industry in the United States is not enough to deal with the protracted war that may erupt in India and the European theater.Senior researcher at the Hudson College of Washington Think Tank, Peter Rough, and Mike Watson, deputy director of the Future Center of Liberty Society, stated on March 13 that if a war broke out, the US military would have to have to haveIt uses its existing peaceful inventory, and it is almost unable to supplement inventory.

"The longer Washington is waiting for reconstruction, the more likely it will cause the situation similar to 1941. At that timeThere is no preparation of the attack. "

Hal Brands, a historian of John Hopkins University, wrote in the Bloomberg column on the 31st that a protracted Ukrainian war provided the United States with an opportunity to really take national defense. "At presentThe so -called weakness of the foundation of the defense industry is shocking. "

Branz enumerates the historical precedent that in 1940-41, Americans had argued to provide Britain with the resources that would be leased in the UK.The weak arms industry at that time shortened the mobilization time of the United States after attacking Pearl Harbor in Japan.

The United States has now made some reform efforts, including investing funds to upgrade old ammunition factories and arsenal infrastructure. In 2023, the National Defense Authorization Act also approved a multi -year contract for certain ammunition to inspire enterprises to invest.

But Bellta of the Professional Committee pointed out that the Ukraine War sounded the alarm to promote the reform of the US defense industry, but the attention was not enough.

"Not only the end product manufacturer must be prepared. Supply chain, components, raw materials, skilled labor, well -trained subcontractors and funds, all of which must be adjusted in advance, because this is not like making Olympic Austrian Austrian OlympicsLoao biscuits can directly increase production by increasing production lines or overtime. The delivery time of components, materials and training labor is as long as a few months or even a few years, instead of a few days or a few minutes. "He said.

Belit also suggested that the US Department of Defense needs to evaluate the needs of the total ammunition in the Ukrainian war and the potential Taiwan conflict, accelerate the process of signing the contract, and show to mainland China to carry out a long -lasting war in the Indo -Pacific region, the conflict Lieutenant General in the Indo -Pacific region, in the conflict.The capabilities of ammunition, weapon systems and professional operators actually delivered to Taiwan.

He emphasized that "the biggest suspension problem is how the United States and when to do it, not only can replenish (Taiwan) inventory, but also show this ability to mainland China.It also uses supplies, equipment, and anything needed in the air and sea to maintain and support this conflict. There is no answer yet. The United States has not showed this ability for several years or decades. " In addition, associate professors of Time and Mississippi State University, Vasabjit Banerjee, issued a statement on the war on the Rocks website that the United States should strengthen the auditing of the ammunition industry and formulate specific specificsAnalysis of quality and efficiency data, adjust export regulations to promote the production of high -tech ammunition, promote the second production line of international allies to develop low -tech ammunition (such as 155mm cannonball), and in the United States Army Joint Munitions CommandComplete the modernization of related facilities under the guidance.

"A main advantage of the United States is that ammunition is produced under a variety of contract structures. For facilities under the joint ammunition command, the Ministry of National Defense can greatly affect the operation and support of these facilities operated by the government and contractor.Method. This will allow the contractor and the Ministry of National Defense to learn lessons from the existing shortage and design feasible long -term solutions to ensure the production of ammunition. "Takache said to the Voice of the United States.