Leading trade globalization was originally in the United States.However, in the past few years, the United States has gradually withdrawn from the leadership of global trade and has been taken over by China.This trend can be explained by the theory of international relations, that is, the definition of the United States on the international community. It has been based on the past liberalism (good human nature, and can cooperate on the basis of compliance with international law, maintain peace, and prevent war), return back to realism back to realism, and return to realism back to realism.(Human evil, lack of trust, unable to cooperate, the international environment is in an anarchism, and countries are fighting for power).
The world was in a realistic state before the United States involved in World War I and gradually replaced Britain before becoming a world hegemon.Idealism (predecessor of neo -liberalism) began at the then US President Wilson's concept of world peace.In January 1918, he proposed a 14 -point peace principle in the U.S. Congress, of which the establishment of international peace institutions was implemented as an international alliance.
Establishing international institutions, international rules, and promotion of cooperation is the foreign extension of the US democratic politics institution. Wilson tried to solve the state of wars under international anarchism with American internal affairs and obtained the support of Europeans.The development of idealism has risen, reaching its peak after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and the new liberalism with global trade as the key element has flourished, but it has recently begun to retreat.
In the past 200 years, free trade has also been ups and downs -early 19th century, strong Britain has begun to promote free trade. Before the outbreak of World War I, the degree of openness of free trade has increased significantly.Join this new game rule that swept the world.The degree of trade opening up was increased again in the 1920s, but it collapsed during the Great Depression (especially in Europe and North America).Since the 1950s, trade openness has increased significantly again (although it has slowed down during the 1973 petroleum crisis).After the end of the Cold War, the world under the rule of the United States once had the prosperity of economic globalization, and the globalization of trade reached the highest level in history.
China's rise has made the United States gradually abandon the globalization of trade.In the West's 200 years of free trade, he did not expect to enter the 21st century, and he took the initiative to retreat.China's official explanation of China's rise is that the government's policy is strong and the people are hard work; but from the perspective of Western today, it is because the clinton government judged the error in the 1990s and thought that absorbing China into global trade can make China go to democracy to democracy to democracy.The world moves closer.This proposition and point of view is a typical new liberalism. It is believed that free trade cooperation under the framework of international rules can bring prosperity and peace.At that time, the United States allowed China's trade to enjoy the most benefited country and support China to join the World Trade Organization with the position of "non -market economy".
China joined the WTO in 2001, and the country is jubilant.I did not expect that in 20 years, China can have the strength to scream with the United States.At that time, Deng Xiaoping's policy control China, that is, economic construction was the top major in the country.This is a rare era of such a high degree of unity of officials and the public in modern Chinese history -the spirit of hardships and hard work of the Chinese people is rare, and the price of labor is extremely low. Give a little policy of richness, which can outbreak the atomic bomb -like shock.
It coincides with the high human rights in the West and the price of labor force is extremely expensive. The United Kingdom has basically abolished industries. Most of factory products were imported from cheap labor areas. The British people enjoyed the benefits of Chinese low -cost products for decades for this decades.China's cheap labor and sound industry production chain have become a key country in global trade.Shortly after the financial tsunami in 2008, China's GDP (GDP) quickly jumped in the world.
Trump's came to power, thanks to the dissatisfaction of the American blue -collar workers, he quickly launched a trade war with China after taking office.After Biden's succession, "U.S. Priority" is no longer a formal slogan, but "buying American goods" and nationalist emotions still affect US trade policies.The United States, including trade, has served in the internal affairs election, that is, they must seek the support of most voters and eliminate their dissatisfaction; one of them is trade with China, because Americans feel that trade liberalization is unfair to the United States.
David Bisbi, deputy deputy office of the US delegation in the WTO, once said: "China uses the mark of the WTO members to become the largest trading country of the WTO, and at the same time, it doubles the national -led non -market trade method, which has damaged the damage.Workers and companies in the United States and other countries. "
During the prevalence of new liberalism, it was supported by the United States. The WTO was an important trade organization that could solve trade disputes.Now, the solution of the World Trade Disputes is in a serious crisis, and its appeal mechanism cannot play a role because the United States prevents the appointment of an appealing agency.In November last year, the United States announced that it would not abide by a World trade ruling. The ruling argued that Trump's 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs were violated in the United States.The United States does not implement the WTO ruling and prevents judges from appointment.This is the manifestation of new liberalism to realism.
In addition to hitting the trade of Huawei, chips, and Douyin platforms involved in US national security, on March 27, the US House of Representatives passed a bill, requiring that China was no longer classified as developing countries.The bill requires the US State Department to persuade international organizations to not allow China to get any special treatment to developing countries.
At the same time, China, which Xi Jinping's main administration, has changed the first economic construction established by Deng Xiaoping and the policies of hidden light.Because there is no legal guarantee, China's economic policy is uncertain, and the Chinese teaching and training industry was destroyed in 2021.The increasing competition with the United States has exacerbated the position of Western concerns about China in the Russian and Ukraine War. It also made Europe dare not easily abandon China, so as not to push China directly into Russia's embrace.Regardless of the crown disease epidemic and the Russian war, neither changes the dependence of Western consumers to Chinese manufacturing. China is still an important exporter.As the largest beneficiary of global trade, China continues to call for trade globalization.Ma Yun, the founder of Alibaba Group, who lived overseas for a long time, appeared in China and was considered a signal of China's relaxation of economic policies.
Now this Sino -US competition has brought the United States to new liberalism to realism. Global free trade has become a national interest obstacle. Modifying China's trade status in the United States and the WTO can return the United States to the old days.Trade leadership.However, the situation of competitive overlords in the two countries has been opened. If the United States wins, it will return to new liberalism again; but if China wins, it will be new order and new rules.The existing theory of Western international relations will no longer be applicable.
(The author is a bilingual writer who settled in the UK)
