Source: Global Times
Author: Liu Xiaoxue
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) all predict that in the next few years, India will maintain the highest growth rate in the world's major economies, and even some famous international financial institutions such as McKinseaMorgan Stanley has begun to advocate the "Indian Century".The Indian government himself is also fulfilled. The 500 -page annual economic report released at the beginning of the year shows almost all the world's achievements and highlights.The election of 2024 is coming. If Modi wants to continue to be re -elected, the economic development of the economy is essential.
In this context, some scholars who are independent of the government also attract different views on the Indian economy's different views.They believe that the average growth rate of India in the past three years in the epidemic was only 3.5%, and it was significantly declining: the growth rate of 2022-23 has dropped from 8.7%of the previous year to 6.8%, while 2023-24 may be further dropped to 6.1%.EssenceThey then questioned the sustainability of India's economic growth in this round of economic growth.Most of these scholars questioned the reasons for old age. For example, if there is no employment growth, the market access that has no market access to private capital, especially foreign investment, and the embarrassing balance between integration into the global supply chain and support for domestic industries.Make India's economic growth rise and fall.
So, people naturally think of a question. Who should we believe in the Indian economy?
Believe in international institutions that seem to be independent of the government and profitability, such as financial companies, consulting companies, and international rating agencies?But they are the main goals of government public relations, and the third world government government is also an important customer of them.
So, do you believe international financial organizations such as IMF, World Bank, ADB?They do have international first -class economists, huge databases and advanced models, and at least they maintain political neutrality.Their judgments of one country's economy are generally only slightly different.However, their professionalism depends on the accuracy of data provided by object countries to a certain extent.Furthermore, it is difficult for people to interpret themselves to overcome their own prejudices inside the organization.Even if they are not deliberately killing or singing, they always tend to overestimate the achievements of some countries and exaggerate the issues of other countries.Their professionalism is also greatly discounted because they cannot predict the international crisis such as Asian financial tsunami in 1998 and the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis.
What is the credibility of relatively independent scholars from the university?At present, scholars who are studying India's economy and have quite influential influence are mostly torn by Indians or Indians who live overseas.In which direction, most of them are related to their time and their own experience.
The Nobel Prize winner of Economic Amadia Mori spent his youth in the Nehru era with a high anti -colonial movement and a wide range of socialist economic programs.Eliminate poverty and achieve equal ethnic status.He has a critical attitude towards the radical political politics promoted by Modi and the so -called economic liberalization policy that supports large capital.Lagram Lazan's resumes among the middle generation of Indian economists are the most eye -catching. He was a chief economist at the IMF and a professor of the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago.During his tenure, various measures were widely praised by the market. When the reputation was in the same day, he thought that he would be successfully re -elected, but he was abandoned.La Zhan has since embarked on the path of "Feng Modi", and his exposition on the Indian economy has become increasingly losing his credibility.
Avade Saeravania is similar to La Jen's experience. He worked at the IMF and replaced him as the chief economic adviser of the Ministry of Finance.During the period of economic consultants of the Ministry of Finance, his biggest contribution was that the annual economic survey report that has been reforming India for decades has been reforming India, which has changed its style from the statistical yearbook to a special papers.Reading.Although he was low -key, his rigor as a scholar still made him from being liked by the Modi government. In the end, he had to resign and return to the United States for personal reasons.The first influential paper published after the departure was "error estimation of Indian GDP: possibility, deviation, mechanism and significance".EssenceRecently, in the magazine of foreign affairs, there is another article "Why can't India replace China: the stumbling block on the road of New Delhi."Avard believes that Modi's obsession with "self -reliance" and unable to provide a friendly policy soft environment for private investment have made India's domestic private investment grow weak, let alone attract large -scale investment in industrial chain from the world.Because Avard was once the "insider" of the Indian government, mastered the various channels of obtaining data, and because he showed more about the objective of "speaking with numbers" by economists, each of his speeches attracted the attention of the academic circles.Essence
Who should we believe in the Indian economy is so contrary?First of all, it should be economics common sense.The long -term growth of an economy is determined by its factor conditions.Some conditions are objective, such as population and labor supply, but the judgment of some conditions is very subjective, such as whether the cultural and political system is conducive to economic growth.At this time, we should listen to different opinions. I believe that there will be more "black swans" with an open mind.
