Source: Shanghai Securities News
panic, it is an emotional response.When emotions are infected, they must be blocked in time to avoid greater risks.When the market is panicked, the Fed will inevitably take action.
Since the crisis of the U.S. banking industry, the sudden tension of capital has made the Fed "open the gate".From March 8th to March 22nd, the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased by 391.5 billion US dollars (S $ 522.3 billion), which could not help but make the market sigh "QT (the asset -liability statement reduction plan) is dead.Looking back on a single way. "Since April 2022, the Fed's QT has lasted for nearly a year, and the scale of asset reduction has reached $ 623.2 billion, but the "expansion" of the past two weeks has eaten most of the previous "results".
In order to alleviate the tension of capital, the Fed provides three paths: one is the discount window, an increase of 105.7 billion US dollars; the second is the new BTFP (bank regular financing plan) tool, an increase of 53.7 billion US dollars;The Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which is taken over by FDIC (US Federal deposit insurance company), provides other credit expansion including bridge loans, a total of $ 179.6 billion.The global market's demand for the US dollar is equally strong. In the latest week of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, loans to foreign central banks have increased by $ 60 billion.This may also indicate that the banking crisis of other economies is still fermenting.
But corresponding to the queuing of stores and the extension of bank deposits and blood loss, funds are crazy into the US Monetary Fund market.Relatively speaking, monetary funds are "high interest rates and hedging."As of March 22, the size of the US Monetary Fund increased to US $ 5.13 trillion, a record of the highest since 2007, and has increased by more than 100 billion US dollars for two consecutive weeks.Although the currency fund is also a variety investing in bonds, the two hazards are light, and the phenomenon of deposit and moving eventually occurs.
Historically, the scale of currency funds surged in 2008 and 2020, which corresponds to the Fed's stop rate hike and gradually move towards the interest rate cut cycle.In 2008, the size of the currency fund soared from $ 2.5 trillion to $ 4 trillion, and the Fed's policy interest rate gradually declined from 5%; and when the size of the currency fund rose from 3.5 trillion US dollars to $ 5 trillion, the Fed's policy interest rateIt also declined from 2.5%.The scale of the currency fund has soared, will the Federal Reserve's policy be reversed?
The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are very chaotic.It is reflected in the bond market, which is an increase in volatility.The Fed's adherence to the judgment of "no interest rate cuts" is huge differences with the market implied interest rate paths, partly because the influence of bank storms has great uncertainty, but in the real world, the Fed will be continuously forced to make choices.
On the one hand, the risks faced by the banking system have not been completely lifted. The combination of the Federal Reserve's current interest rate hikes is not enough to completely eliminate the risk of extrusion and the potential pressure faced by the financial system.On the other hand, the rapid rise in interest rates in US interest rates will lead to inversion of interest rate curves, which also indicates that the accumulated effect on the economy will gradually increase in the later stage.When the beautiful desire of "soft landing" eventually becomes the reality of "hard landing", the storyline will reverse.
