Sun Xingjie

After the Summit of the Seven Kingdoms on December 12, a joint statement including 18 points, including at least 10 points involving the Russian and Ukraine War, which is particularly noteworthy, mentioning that the "post -war peaceful arrangement"issue.In the relevant content involving the Russian and Ukraine War, the prototype of the order after the Russia and Ukraine gradually appeared.

The Russian and Ukraine War was the most severe and most impactful war in Europe after World War II. It may also be a war that really ended the Cold War.It is also the beginning of the "post -war" peace order of the Cold War.

The three major killers in Russia are weak back to heaven

Since October, the battlefield situation of Russia and Ukraine has reversed. The counterattack rhythm of the Ukraine army is not fast, but the decline of Russia has been revealed.Of course, when the Russian army comes in winter, the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine cities has no differential bombing, which has a great challenge to tens of thousands of civilian lives. European and American countries hold special international meetings in Paris to help the Ukraine people get obtainedWinter facilities.

Russia's "Winter General", which has been relying in in history, does not seem to stand on Russia this time, and the cold winter may not allow Ukraines to yield.Nuclear weapons, energy and winter are the three major killers of Russia.Russia has issued a statement against the nuclear war. Although senior Russian officials will release nuclear deterrent words from time to time, they have almost lost their deterrent function.The European energy market has formed, and Russia has to find a new market for its energy.As for whether the "Winter General" can play a role, it is still unknown, but what can be seen is that the result of the Russian army's no -differential air strike in Ukrainian cities is that the United States decided to provide Ukraine with "Patriot" air defense missiles.

On the military battlefield, the Russian army fell into a hard consumption.Russia and Ukraine's wars in Bachurut have become a contest for the will of the war between the two sides, without any battlefield value.The Russian army consumes first -line equipment and inventory weapons; Ukraine consumes the war capabilities of the aid U -Kwa Alliance, including NATO, and Germany even hand over the air defense system that has not been fully equipped to Ukraine.

Under the continuous consumption war, the success or failure of losing or failure can be imagined.In the economic and financial battlefield, Russia has not had the power to fight back. The European Union has passed and started the ninth set of sanctions. Russia has faced 12,000 sanctions. In fact, it has been "kicked" by the West from the international market system.In international morality and public opinion, Russia is in a state of "sounding". President Putin rarely canceled the annual press conference, which is also a metaphor.

From the perspective of several "battlefields" of military, economy, and public opinion, the Russian and Ukraine War may enter the stage of war and transformation.This may also be the reason why the leaders of the Seventh Kingdom Group began to discuss "post -war peace".

When the war is not over, it is necessary to consider and study post -war order. The construction of the post -war order depends on the nature, scale, intensity, results, influence of the war, and the norms of international order at that time.

The Russian and Ukraine War is similar to the historically Crimean war and the Japanese -Russian war. They are all Russia's war that launched a "weak country", but it was accidentally defeated.After the Crimea War, Russia lost heavy losses and almost lost its influence in the Black Sea.between.Of course, the 21st century international order was different from the 19th and 20th centuries.

First of all, from both Russia and Ukraine, Russia has almost lost the chances and possibilities of achieving goals. The only suspense is where the two sides stop the war, whether to return to February 24, 2022, or return to 2014, 2014Before?If you cannot delineate a clear boundary and write to a peace treaty, the war may be just "freezing" or "pause". Whether Ukraine or NATO, it will not be satisfied with "ceasefire."

Of course, there are also different opinions within the West. The most radical is Russia's second disintegration, while the most conservative is to return to the state before the war on February 24th. The end result may be between the two.

Secondly, war accountability with Ukraine.

The leaders of the Seventh Kingdom Group clearly stated in the statement that Putin and related personnel should be held accountable.German Prime Minister Tsugs also said that in the future, it will cooperate with Russia of "Hou Putin".Part of the cost of restoration and reconstruction in Ukraine must come from Russia's compensation; of course, this compensation may not be deducted from hundreds of billions of dollars in Russia frozen Russia frozen in Western countries.Holding and compensation is closely linked to the nature of war. Whether it can be achieved in the end depends on the result of the war.

In the end, although the Russian and Ukraine War was a war between Russia and Ukraine, the impact and impact were huge, exceeding the European scope, and caused huge challenges to global order.

After the Cold War, it did not end with a peace agreement, and there was no peaceful security framework in Europe. The order of order after the Russia and Ukraine will re -determine the role of Ukraine, Russia in the western end of Europe, and Eurasia.In addition, the Russian and Ukraine War will greatly consume the international status established by Russia after World War II, as well as characters in international organizations such as the United Nations.As for how long Russia needs to repair and restarts its global status, it will depend on the interaction between other big powers.

The author is a professor at the School of International Relations of Sun Yat -sen University