Ye Shengzhou
The China Central Economic Work Conference in 2022 was one week later compared to 2021. It was also normal. The meeting was compressed for two days. It was obviously affected by the outbreak of Beijing and the national epidemic.The media is generally caught sharply, and the meeting particularly emphasized that "starting with improving social psychological expectations and boosting development confidence in 2023" in 2023 is "Effectively implementing 'two unshakable'" (unwavering and consolidating consolidation without shaking consolidationThe development of the public ownership economy has not shaken, support, support, and guide the development of non -public ownership economy); it is required to firmly do a good confidence in economic work and summarize the "six persistences", which also mentioned that "two are not shaken."
The Central Economic Work Conference usually has three speeches, namely the general secretary's comprehensive deployment. The Prime Minister's specific deployment and the meeting summarize. Before the transition from the transition of the transition, the Premier will be concluded.The news release is mainly taken from the General Secretary's speech.
Compared with the news release in 2021, "boosting confidence", "unwavering encouragement, support, and guiding the development of non -public ownership economic development" also mentioned, just to appease the market as a relaxation companion; the main tone is severe warning "Effectively controlling capital negative effects "," setting red and green lights for capital, strengthening effective supervision of capital in accordance with the law, and preventing capital barbarous growth. "During the raging global epidemic situation, China ’s three trillion -dollar real estate, Internet platforms, and teaching and training industries were suffered strict supervision.
In recent years, scholars, enterprises, and people have doubted whether the Chinese economy has "advanced the country"?Is the direction, rhythm, and strength displayed by themselves or even self -limited vitality?This meeting finally sent a strong encouragement signal to the private economy, with a completely different degree, primary and secondary weight, as rapid turns as the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies.First of all, "vigorously boost confidence"; secondly, it is required to treat the requirements of state -owned enterprises and private enterprises in terms of system and law, and encourage and support the development of private economy and private enterprises in terms of policies and public opinion;Encourage and attract more private capital to participate in major national projects and the construction of shortcoming projects.
The private economy has the important characteristics of "five six, seven or eight nine", that is, more than 50%of taxes, more than 60%of domestic GDP (GDP), more than 70%of technological innovation achievements, more than 80%of urban labor employment, 90The number of companies above more than.The contribution to the Chinese economy far exceeds the state's economy, and its future advantages and contributions have continued to increase.
The inefficiency of state -owned enterprises, skirts and corruption have been criticized.The benefits of state -owned enterprises in China's underdeveloped regions are generally not good, and there is no guarantee for the elderly. In order to maximize the benefits of some leaders, the family members and secretaries of some leaders prefer to enter the administrative agency for the first time and enter the public institutions.There are many oil and water, there are many opportunities to play abroad, and it is loose.
In addition to some pure public products such as national defense, hydropower gas, etc., the monopoly of the state -owned economy and state -owned enterprises can be released.State -owned enterprises should continue to be greatly reduced. "State retreat from the people's progress" is the correct direction in order to achieve the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resource allocation.
Five major policies: highlighting technology self -improvement
2022 discusses the five major policies, namely fiscal, currency, industry, science and technology and social policies.The standard of the macro policy over the years is "positive fiscal policy+stable monetary policy". Although the fixed tone continues, China's political context, even if the monetary policy is very positive, will usually be defined with "stable".After the meeting, the most critical sentence of the Ministry of Finance analyzed the statement that "reasonably arrange the deficit rate and the scale of local government bonds to ensure that the government's investment is not reduced."This year (2022), if you need it, you need to pay more strength. "
Social policies mention "promptly implementing progressive delaying legal retirement age policies".Based on this prediction, the delayed retirement plan that has long been drafted will be submitted to the 14th National People's Congress to vote, and the retirement of three or four months is extended each year.If the latter is selected, the burden of anti -proven pensions and finances is heavier than expected.The "common prosperity" highlighted in 2021 obviously faded.
For the first time, the 20th National Congress of the Mainland Government will make overall deployment of education, technology, and talents, emphasizing that the three are the basic and strategic support of comprehensively building a socialist modern country.The meeting required "the layout and implementation of a group of major national scientific and technological projects". The press release has been taken through it. On the one hand, it is limited to space. On the one hand, it is temporarily confidential. Detailed measures are written into the government work report of the Prime Minister.Only the time was announced.
Of course, there are other channels and documents that can be confirmed with the spirit of this meeting.The Central Committee of the Mainland Government and the State Council recently issued the outline of the strategic planning of domestic demand (2022-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the outline). The policy orientation is clear and specific.Sexual and Strategic National Science and Technology Projects.
Sino -US science and technology competition is fierce, and its advantages are greater than disadvantages. It is expected to benefit the country and human beings.The United States led nearly $ 10 billion and successfully implemented the James Weber telescope project. It represents the grand courage and pattern of human beings.It is expected that China has also made great contributions and contributions in basic research, especially in the origin of the universe, the origin of time, and the origin of consciousness.
Five major points: highlight the stimulating domestic demand
The meeting deployed five key tasks in 2023. The first task was to "focus on expanding domestic demand". After all, the final consumption expenditure accounted for the proportion of GDP, which remained above 50%for 11 consecutive years.
In terms of consumption, it clearly supports housing improvement, new energy vehicles, and pension services.In the second half of last year, the "three arrows" were shot from credit, bonds, and equity to support the financing of housing enterprises.EssenceEconomic landslides, unstable reversal, real estate tax legislation will continue to delay.The so -called "new development model" of the real estate industry is to remove financial attributes and establish people's livelihood attributes.
The press release mentioned that "multi -channel increasing income of urban and rural residents", but did not start.On March 5, 2012, the then Prime Minister Wen Jiabao proposed in the government work report that "hurry up the general plan for reforming the reform of the income distribution system", and said at the journalist meeting of the nine days after the nine days."The overall plan", the National Development and Reform Commission has drafted related documents.When Japan and South Korea have taken off, they have implemented a multiplication plan for national income, which is popular.
In terms of investment, it is mainly divided into three pieces: First, to increase the optimization and upgrade investment of traditional manufacturing, such as promoting high -end, intelligent, greening, optimizing the layout of important basic industrial planning such as petrochemical and steel;The second is to expand investment in the field of advanced manufacturing, such as strengthening the innovative application of strategic emerging industries and technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced communications, integrated circuits, genetic technology, satellites, etc., and the third is to accelerate the construction of infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy, such as penetrating "Eight vertical and eight horizontal "high -speed rail main channels, build large wind power, photovoltaic bases, and accelerate the construction of the Internet of Things and Gigabit Optical Network.
From the perspective of exports, it is required to continue to play the role of exports on the economy, greater efforts to promote the stability and excellent structure of foreign trade, promote the stability of foreign capital, and increase the growth point of international economic and trade cooperation.One of the five major key tasks in 2023 is "greater efforts to attract and use foreign capital", emphasizing the creation of a first -class business environment for marketization and rule of law, implementing the national treatment of foreign -funded enterprises, steadily expanding the rules and standards, etc.Expand the opening of the inland, accelerate the opening of the edge, and enhance the level of open coastal openness.
Overall, 20The main axis of 23 years is obviously "two -wheel drive". At the same time, coordinated development and security, strengthening supply -side reform and demand -side management, improving traditional industries and strategic emerging industries, promoting domestic and international dual -loop benign interaction, promoting China's economic stability and far awayEssence
The three -year -old crown disease epidemic, which predicts the polarization of China and the United States.The first two years of singing the United States, thinking that China's GDP accelerated to overtake the United States and blindly optimistic; the third year sang China, thinking that China's GDP could never catch up with the United States, blind pessimism.Due to the low base effect, China's GDP growth in 2023 is expected to easily exceed 6%, or even as high as 8%; the US economy will fall into recession, but China's per capita GDP will be difficult to surpass the United States in this century.
The meeting emphasized that "the new team must have new and new actions", which is intriguing.On October 24, the Chinese stock market plummeted was a typical lack of market confidence.
The author looks forward to the government work report on March 5, 2023. After the closing of the 14th National People's Congress, the new Prime Minister's regular press conference will look forward to whether the theme of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a new one.The wheel is comprehensively deepened.The comprehensive deepening reform passed by the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee has decided to refresh and inspire, and it has been rare since the 44 years of reform and opening up.Looking forward to the new team, I do n’t treat me, self -evidence, a big job, and benefit the people.
The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator
Overall, the main axis of policy in 2023 is obviously "two -wheel drive". At the same time, coordinating development and security, strengthening supply -side reform and demand -side management, improving traditional industries and strategic emerging industries, promoting domestic and international dual -cycle benign interaction, Promote China's economic stability.
