Author: Wu Zhenzhong
Only one month before the 2020 US presidential election voting day, Washington suddenly reported that President Trump and his wife Melania were diagnosed with crown disease.Looking at the past election years, the heavy news about the presidential candidate always appeared in October, shaking the election.
Trump's diagnosis is unfortunate.However, British Prime Minister Johnson and Brazilian President Borsonaro have obtained a little political dividend after defeating the virus, and the people's hope is improved.Objective political effects?
The first possible objective effect was that voters had a sympathy attitude towards him because of the presidential infection.Although we observed that after Trump published a post on Twitter that he and his wife were diagnosed with crown diseases, netizens responded very enthusiastically and the opinions were polar.Although some netizens left a message and prayed for Trump to recover as soon as possible.
After all, the head of state is unfortunately infected, will the people feel sympathetic to their perceptions, or will it be even more disgusted?
It is announced that the diagnosis is very popular after the diagnosis turns
British Prime Minister Johnson was unfortunately diagnosed with infection at the end of March.Prior to this, Johnson lowered the destructive power of the crown disease. When the epidemic was raging in the UK, Johnson had a group immune resistance policy, causing criticisms and criticism of some people.
However, after Johnson announced the confirmation on March 27, his people's hope rose sharply.According to the polls that YOUGOV continued to show the performance of the Prime Minister, Johnson's people's hope began to rise at the end of March.On April 7, Johnson was sent to a deep treatment department for deteriorating his condition. On April 13, Johnson's support rate was as high as 66%, the highest since taking office.On April 27, Johnson appeared publicly after the recovery, and Gao Minwang maintained almost a month before falling.
Sympathy and emotions around the people's sentiment
Whether it is all due to the sympathy of the people in the infection of Johnson, it is difficult to judge rashly, but the time is completely coincided.Moreover, Johnson's people's hope fell to the average level for several months, and the opposition ratio re -surpassed the support rate. The auxiliary of Johnson's short -term public hope soared during April, which may have a lot to do with the impulse fluctuations of the people.
Assuming that American society also appears because of Trump's confirmation, and it appears that Johnson's very promising people in April, then this will definitely affect the presidential election day after one month.
Political effects of the healing of Brazil Michaelia
Another objective political effect brought by Trump infection, or the political image of solidifying his strong man.
Regardless of the treatment of internal affairs and foreign affairs, Trump has been showing a tough route to the outside world.Although the crown disease has raged around the world this year, the number of domestic infections in the United States remains high, and Trump has always settled the arrogance of his staff in his staff.Do not scrap food because of choking, and do not cause economic suspension because of the prevention of diseases like ordinary colds.
If Trump's infection was successfully recovered after treatment, then this incident just passed two messages to voters: First, crown disease is simply like a common cold disease. Even his 74 -year -old man experienced it.After that, there is no major hindrance; second, Trump has always been a strong man leader shaped by the public, and he will also become more vivid because of his own victory.
And this kind of statement is not that there is no precedent for reference.
Brazilian conservative President Borsonaro is another head of state diagnosed in infection.Like Trump, Borsonaro has tried to dilute the risk of the epidemic many times. It was once called a small flu, and he refused to wear a mask. He appeared in a large number of street rally.Blocking, resolutely requires that the national economy needs to be maintained.
Borsonaro finally announced the diagnosis infection in early July.However, in less than a month, Borsonaro announced on social networking sites that his latest virus testing results were negative, and then drove the motorcycle out to take pictures with supporters during the period.
In mid -August, Brazil has been the second largest country in the world's new crown epidemic, and death has exceeded 100,000, but Bolsonaro's support rate has reached the highest 37%since taking office, and the opposition rate has fallen by ten percentage points a month ago to a month ago34%.
Some analysts believe that Borsonaro infection can actually bring him political benefits.
Oliver STUENKEL, a political scholar studying Brazil's political scholar, pointed out in an interview with British media that the process of Bolsonaro infection and healing can be used as a strong basis for his dilution of crown disease, and he can also shape himself into an extraordinary one.Superhuman Messiah (Bolsonaro's middle name is Messias, the Portuguese of the Messiah).
Less than a month before the US election, Trump announced the confirmation news at the beginning of October, which is undoubtedly a shocking bomb before the election.If he has recovered in the next few weeks, a strong return may bring momentum to the election.
Of course, we cannot accurately speculate whether the voting attitude of American voters will be affected by this factor.However, considering this sensitive time point and the development facts of similar cases, we can see the objective effects of this shock bomb derived from the political framework of the real election.
