Does Taiwan follow the US ＂decoupled＂ mainland economy?

United Daily News Agency

US Secretary of State Clarch will lead the group to visit Taiwan today.In the State Council, the Secretary of State is second only to the Secretary of State and Deputy Secretary of State. Krachi will be the highest visit to Taiwan after the interruption of Taiwan and the United States.Earlier Minister of Health Achar's visit to Taiwan, in addition to triggering strong dissatisfaction in Beijing, also forced the Cai government to open the door of the imported imported from the import of American pigs.This time, the Craphi visited, the CCP launched a Long March 11 rocket over Taiwan the day before, and the demonstration was full. As for what kind of economic consequences in Taiwan, it is still difficult to reverse.

On the surface, high -level officials in the United States visited Taiwan to symbolize the friendship between the two countries; but more importantly, the substantive relationship between the economic and trade and security of the two countries.After Trump took office, the Taiwan -American Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) has not been repeated; this is the most important economic and trade counseling platform for Taiwan and the United States. For four years, it is difficult to be friendly.The United States has understood that as long as the US pigs and Niu are not open, it is difficult for TIFA and even the Free Trade Agreement (FTA).President Tsai announced the cancellation of imports of pigs and cattle at the end of last month. Minister of Economic Minister Wang Meihua and the Asia -Pacific Assistant Chiang Steve subsequently talked about the video.

This move can not help but let Taiwan have an illusion, thinking that Claric's trip is here to talk about economic and trade.Wang Meihua clarified that Krachi would not talk about the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) or TIFA, and the actual negotiations will be the US Trade Representative (USTR).If the opening of the US pigs and Niu can be changed to the progress of the economic and commercial dialogue between Taiwan and the United States, even if it is not talked about with USTR, it is better than not;

Cerach's currently hosted by an Economic Prosperity Network (EPN) program.This is not an international multilateral organization, but a network of bilateral economic relations with the United States and the United States. The purpose is to encourage countries to decide with the mainland economy to develop into an economic group that comes to China.At the request of decoupling, the United States hopes that Taiwan's electronics, semiconductor and other industries will be able to move out of factories in the mainland. As for the move to Taiwan, the United States, or other countries, it can be discussed.TSMC was forced to announce the investment in Arizona in mid -May, and it was no longer possible to produce high -end chips for Huawei from the 15th of this month, which is equivalent to cutting off TSMC's about 20%of the chip market.This is the earliest example of test knife.

Some people think that it is a way out to be described, because the economic benefits that the United States brings to Taiwan is not bad. Compared with cross -strait economic relations, at least there is no political additional conditions.In particular, ECFA expired for the past ten years, and the outside world has been talking about it, saying that because the 1992 consensus on cross -strait politics has no existence, the mainland may end one -sided after the expiration of the period, so as to put pressure on Taiwan.The Tsai government was reluctant to acknowledge the 1992 consensus, so it has been diluting the impact of the termination of ECFA, saying that it has only five%of Taiwan.Regardless of the pros and cons of the 1992 consensus, it only depends on this year's epidemic cracking down on the global economy. If Taiwan has not rely on a high export of exports to the mainland, the economy cannot have a stunning impact.This is the reality of cold ice. When talking about the decoupling of both sides of the strait, you must first think about the consequences and tolerance.

More seriously, Cai Yingwen has been in power for four years, and has continuously emphasized the new southbound direction and scattered the export market to Europe and the United States to reduce Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland.However, in recent years, Taiwan's dependence on the mainland has not declined, from 40 % to 46 %.Obviously, whether the two -strait economy should be decoupled depends on the objective market reality, not the government's will.Moreover, Taiwan's one -year surplus for the mainland is $ 12 billion, and its surplus to the United States is 10 billion US dollars. How can such a big contrast be decoupled to solve it?

The United States is currently promoting the establishment of an economic prosperity network with the six countries such as Australia, India, Japan, New, South Korea, and Vietnam.However, the security of Indo -Pacific countries depends on the United States, but economic and trade must depend on the mainland; how easy is it to talk about the relationship between countries to cut off and China?Both the six countries have signed a economic and trade agreement with China. Both countries have joined the multilateral regional comprehensive economic partner agreement (RCEP), and China is the largest economy. How can they decompose with the mainland?

At present, the focus of the world economy is moving too much. No wonder everyone is perfunctory in the United States, waiting for the results of the US election in November.Regardless of the pressure or gift of Claric, the Cai government must calmly observe the global trend and be cautious to stabilize Taiwan's core interests.