Zhang Jingwei
The border conflict between the Galwan Valley of China and the Indo is low -key, and India is fermented with passion.
Indian Prime Minister Modi suddenly appeared at the China -India border on July 3.His encouragement and criticism of the Indian Army and not named expansionism were poured on the fire.This is another measure of India's counterattack in China after the Indian Customs conducts additional inspections and uninstalls 59 Chinese application software.Of course, Modi also uninstalled his Chinese Weibo.
Modi Labor Army is helpless to soothe the society's resentment.In the face of the hustle and bustle of nationalist emotions, he had to make a strong anti -China move, but he was unwilling to fight against China.He once said that the PLA did not cross the Sino -Indian border, more like his true heart.Moreover, China has been dealing with the matter low -key.
Although the conflict between China and India and India has caused widespread attention from the international community, it may not be the top priority in India.On the one hand, the Indian epidemic is raging and full of uncertainty; on the other hand, it is also facing the invasion of desert locusts.Except for the conflict between the China -India border, the Battle of Barcashir has never stopped.India also had border disputes with friendly neighbors Nepal.
For Modi, which problem is not handled well, it will cause big trouble.Modi chose the main contradiction of the China -India border conflict, so as to relieve the resentment of the Indian people through tough words and deeds.However, this approach seems to work or brings severe consequences.
First of all, Western countries such as the United States have supported India. India needs these international morals, but it is also known that this is the West as a chess piece for China to check and balance China.Secondly, the United States and Russia took a large number of weapons to India with the opportunity of the Sino -Indian border conflict. Although this enhanced India's confidence, it also consumed a lot of foreign exchange. It may not be good news for India.
Even more importantly, India has never lack of advanced weapons and equipment in the United States, Russia, and Europe, but the indigestion of Indians is quite bad.The news that will not be used and constantly happens to make India a joke for the international community.Third, China -India's military power is disparity.
China and India broke out in 1962, and China ’s speed rushed to defeat, leaving India's historical scars that were difficult to facilitate.India is dripping in his heart. Although he is eager to revenge, he also hopes to copy the successful experience of China's economic development.Modi's hair trading is to learn from the experience of China's reform and opening up.Because of this, although there is a Yu Liang complex in China and India, the two sides have close cooperation on the economic level such as the BRICS mechanism.
During the international financial crisis, China -India cooperated closely and obtained many rights to speak in global order.Therefore, from the standpoint of Modi and the previous prime ministers of India, development is the first priority, and the war against China is a taboo in India.
However, India is also using the game of the Western world, especially the United States and Japan, to obtain geopolitics.India claims to be the world's largest democratic country and is in the same camp as the United States and Japan.Therefore, from the Asia -Pacific to Indo -Pacific, the United States and Japan often attract India to form the arc of geopolitics against China.In response to China's geopolitical strategy, India is also based on the needs of the situation, or virtue with snakes or strong echo.
However, it is unreliable.Therefore, at the same time, India and the United States and Japan have also joined the Sino -Russian -led SCO.Getting the non -alliance policy of maximizing benefits between great powers is the basic national policy of India.
The border conflict occurred in China and India, and the balance between India was biased towards the United States and the Western world.However, the United States even hopes that the Dragon Elephant conflict is to gain the advantage of fishermen, which is a world -knowledge fact.
Sino -US relations have deteriorated unprecedentedly. The US -Indian relations have become natural allies because of democratic bonds and geopolitical relations.If China -India is really fighting, the United States will not have a blatant conflict with China in addition to the support of mouthfuls or weapons.US President Trump has just announced recently that the United States does not fight a meaningless war around the world, and the United States is not a world police.The United States of realism or utilitarianism is pursuing the United States priority.
As a result, China has undergone stack pressure from the United States, and the United States has desensitized India's support in China.If India chose a hard conflict with China, the most likely result is to conduct a self -damage war with strong neighbors under the applause of the United States and Western society.This is a negative impact on the Dream of India, and it is a serious blow to the Indian economy in the predicament.Compared with China, the Indian economy is still in the primary stage of extensive development.
The United States and other external forces cannot be reliable. The hustle and bustle of domestic nationalism has always been the same. Modi's most urgent task is not to divert the sight of the war, but to break the dilemma of the epidemic and lead the Indian economy to the track of high -speed development.China has given Indian face and deliberately cooling the conflict.Whether Modi can understand and is an oriental wisdom is essential.
India is not only facing the Sino -Indian border conflict, but the battle with Kashmir, an enemy Pakistan has never stopped, and border conflicts have also occurred with friendly neighbors Nepal.In contrast, in addition to India, China and neighboring countries have solved border problems.Therefore, India's good and neighbor diplomacy must reflect.
India is a major country in South Asia. It is also known as the world's largest democratic country, coupled with the support and utilization of the United States in geopolitics, and the arrogance of India's inheritance of the British Empire.It can be seen from the annexation of Sikkim and viewing the Indian Ocean as a sphere of influence.However, the western and utilization of the West cannot cover up the current status quo of India's large but not strong and scattered national strength.
The scattered democratic system, complex religious issues, the surname system leftover, the gap between the rich and the poor, and the poor infrastructure are a problem faced by the Indian government.Can Modi keep the bottom line and make a rational choice of China and test its political wisdom.
The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society
Passenger researcher at Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute
