As of May 11, 2020, more than 4.19 million patients with new crown virus diagnosed the world's new crown virus have affected the vast majority of countries in the world. The number of deaths exceeded 280,000, and it is also at the stage of climbing at the rate of index levels.The World Health Organization (WHO) stated at the new crown virus epidemic conference held on April 15 that although the popularity of new crown virus has lasted for several months, it is still in the early stages of the new crown virus.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Bull; Kissinger published on the Wall Street Journal on April 3 that the new crown virus is popular in the new crown virus.Kissinger pointed out that after the new coronal virus, the world will no longer look like.The new crown virus's attack on human health is temporary, but the political and economic turbulence it triggered may continue for generations.The author agrees with Kissinger's judgment and believes that after the epidemic, the global political and economic situation will show the following ten o'clock.
Treating one: The impact of the epidemic may be comparable to the Grand Depression in 1929, far exceeding the 2008 financial crisis.
The latest World Economic Outlook Report on April 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that the growth of world economic growth has been hit by the most serious blow since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is expected that global GDP will shrink by 3%this year.IMF emphasized that this was the first time in the world since the Great Depression in the 1930s, the world's first developed economy and emerging economies have entered a decline at the same time.The report added that due to the high uncertainty of the prospects of the new crown virus, if the epidemic continues to deteriorate in the second half of the year, global economic growth will suffer a greater blow, and GDP this year may shrink by 6%.If the epidemic lasted until 2021, the global GDP may shrink by 2.2%next year.
IMF is expected to have the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the situation may be worse.The decline of this big blockade will be the most serious economic recession in the past century, and warns that if the coronary virus wandered or rolled again, the shrinkage of the world economy and the pace of recovery will be worse than expected.
Professor Zheng Yongnian, a Chinese scholar, also believes that the three -point cause caused the crisis caused by this epidemic.Difficulty; Third, lack of powerful leaders.The new crown virus epidemic is not only the economic crisis, but also the social crisis, political governance crisis, and the international order crisis caused by panic. It is a multi -crisis in a period of time.The difference is even more dangerous.
Towards 2: The two major cornerstones of global stable political and economic cooperation may be broken, and the popularity of new crown viruses will always change world order.
UN Secretary -General Gutres said the new crown epidemic was the biggest challenge since the founding of the United Nations 75 years.The form of this crisis is very special, and global economic and social life is now in a state of stagnation.
The stability of the global macro environment needs to rely on two cornerstones, namely international political cooperation and global economic exchanges.After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, its destructive power has made the world face the dark moment, and it will definitely change the global political economy and ecology.The reason why this judge is because people have encountered a dilemma that has never been in the past few decades since the end of the Cold War, MDASH; MDASH; political and economic stable cornerstones at the same time, and the macro environment has no support.Base force.Compared with the financial crisis, the effectiveness of this international cooperation is lacking.The two major powers of China and the United States are even more noisy.WHO's outbreak of the epidemic seemed to be at a loss. The United States fiercely criticized WHO, stopped paying the paid fees, and threatened never pay.The principle differences between the great powers make it difficult for the G20 meeting to copy the efficiency and decision of the year.The country has been in politics, and the sovereign government has gradually recovered the power to transfer the international mechanism.
Therefore, Zheng Yongnian and IMF are not an exaggeration to compare the current situation with the Great Depression in the 1930s.As the theory of hegemony stabilization, the proposed of the theory of hegemony, the lack of coordination and the vicious competition of policies, the lack of coordination and cooperation between countries around the world is a key reason for the difficulty of controlling the Great Depression.At the same time, the absence of the two stable cornerstones of politics and economy today will inevitably cause human society to encounter the biggest crisis that has never been encountered in recent decades.
Towards 3: The United States is trapped in the quagmire of the epidemic.situation.
The eager to re -resume labor from the outbreak of the new crown virus is a difficult choice for American economic decision makers.The inaction and negative response of the early stages of outbreak of the epidemic have laid the root cause of the current US epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.Although the Fed has launched unlimited quantitative easing policies, although the US Department of Finance launched a US $ 2 trillion economic stimulus plan, the current economic society in the United States can still be described in one sentence: defense, unavailable; resistance, unavailable.The US economy and society have been forced to be almost unsolvable by the new crown virus.
Three Nobel Prize winners of Economics and Laureate the U.S. economic situation under the epidemic are as follows:
2001 winner Joseph Bull; Stiglitz: If Trump won in the US election in the second half of the year, it will put the United States into the second depression.Now it is like a third world country, and the public social security system has no effect.The unemployment rate in the United States may soar to 20%or 30%during the epidemic.
In 2008, the winner Paul Bull; Crugman: Before the United States really restarted the economy, he had to wait a long time.We may eventually lose trillion dollars of GDP.
The 2013 winner Robert Bull; Hiller: We may not be able to return to the peak for a long time.
Towards 4: After the epidemic, because of the difficulty of protecting the world's first crisis, regardless of whether Trump is re -elected, the next government in the United States may greatly increase the development of China's development, strategic rebound, strategic competition between China and the United States, and the strategic competition between China and the United StatesIdeological competition, development model competition, geopolitical competition, etc. will exacerbate the new global situation.
The epidemic crisis will give the United States a strong sense of crisis. As soon as the epidemic is alleviated, the United States will retaliate back and show power.The power of the United States is still very powerful. We must attach great importance to the United States and don't despise it.US and large US companies have the ability to allocate global resources.The United States is still very powerful in many aspects such as scientific and technological innovation.
Kissinger is a realist. He communicates well with China, but reading his recent article can feel that he is deeply concerned about the United States that may lose its leadership in the world. This emotion is common in the American elite.They hope that the United States can use the scientific leadership of economic leadership and epidemic prevention to maintain the US hegemonic position.
Zolik warned that the cost and danger of Sino -US in conflict were inestimable.The national interest two -monthly website published an article by Zellic on February 14 that the United States today has denied a constructive role in China's own system of its own system, denied that China can contribute, and deny that China can act in a way that China can enhance US interests.And even deny that China has the willingness to do so.But the result of this is that the United States is actually stimulating China to build an independent parallel system that is completely different from existing systems (A Parallel, Separate System, with Very Different Rules).Zolik warned that the United States needs to be vigilant: the risk of misjudgment and non -expected consequences is increasing.China and the United States are in conflict MDASH; mdash; whether it is intentional or unintentional mdash; MDASH; it will lead to an unbeatable price and danger.
Towards 5: Sino -US economic and trade and technology will accelerate the decoupling.Economic globalization may be sharply regressed. Future globalization may be a world and two markets. The industrial chain has intensified.
Under the current epidemic, the nature of Sino -US relations has further changed.The core reason for the strategic competition between China and the United States is that the rise of China's rise is too fast, which has changed the pattern of the United States and the Western -dominated world after World War II. The United States is no longer the only country to formulate international rules.Second, the United States and the West believe that China's system and development model challenged the US and Western models.Third, China has risen too fast in the global supply chain.
With the increasing competition between China and the United States, the United States has three factions with China. One is the trade hawk, the other is the security hawk, and the third is the human rights eagle.During the epidemic, the U.S. hardships will use the epidemic to promote further decoupling with China's economy and technology. They believe that this is a good opportunity to promote the return of manufacturing in China's first wave of epidemics.Even after the second wave of outbreaks in European and American countries, these eagleists continued to promote the decoupling of China and the United States regardless of the interests of the United States and crack down on technology companies such as Huawei.
Even the Governor of New York complained that the masks, ventilators, epidemic prevention clothes and even test reagents were all Made in China at the press conference.The epidemic has made many countries recognize the importance of public health and security to national security, and has become a new excuse for the United States to promote the decoupling of China and the United States.Recently, the United States and other countries have stated that their domestic companies should move out of China and introduce various encouragement policies. Globalization has the situation of returning to the era of economic sovereignty.The future world economy may form two parallel international supply chains, one is centered on the United States and the other is centered on China.Economically reflecting on the trend of globalization will become increasingly obvious.This epidemic has made more and more countries realize that things that are directly related to the lives of the people of the country cannot be lost.From this perspective, the epidemic is a major event that changes the development of the world because it affects the entire social mentality.In other words, after the epidemic, people's living law will change, and the country's ideas will change.
Towards 6: After the epidemic, the United States may reflect deeply and consolidate the Global Alliance.
Many Western countries, what I don't like is Trump, not the United States, and the United States that trusts China than trusting China.
The epidemic has indeed hit the United States, but the United States will not decline. If the United States reflects on traditional allies, Europe and the United States will hold groups.If Trump is re -elected, he will choose to counterattack. If Trump steps down, the US global policy may return to the Obama era and will pay more attention to allies. The power of American allies may far exceed today.
As the leader of the Western camp, the United States performed badly this time.The previous article published by Kissinger believes that the epidemic will reshape the global pattern. I hope that the United States will take this opportunity to deeply reflect on the current problems that already exist and make comprehensive reforms to cope with the new world pattern.Don't underestimate the United States. After suffering major setbacks, the recovery and adjustment ability cannot be ignored.If Bayeng came to power, how successful the condensation of the allies will be paid attention to.After the epidemic, the possibility of reflection and strategic adjustment in the United States is great.
Towards 7: The world will be in a negative era for a while.
The world may be in a negative era for a while.The first is negative interest rate, the second is negative growth (economic growth), the third is negative, and the fourth is negative energy.
What is negative?The leadership of the United States has fallen and negative effects are spreading.In addition to retreating groups, the United States preferentially reflects typical nationalist thinking. Trump repeatedly admits that he is a nationalist.Therefore, the world's only superpowers now play a negative role, not a role model.
What is negative energy?In the next 10 years, it will be an era of populism, and racism will rise and will be a turbulent era.Politically, what is the biggest impact of this epidemic?Raceism looks up.EU countries have returned to the era of sovereign countries.Everyone went to selfishness again.Capital can flow around the world, knowledge can be flowing worldwide, but ordinary people cannot flow freely, poverty cannot flow, and political power cannot flow. Therefore, sovereignty consciousness of various countries will inevitably strengthen and populism.
Towards eight: The unprecedented demand in the new crown epidemic plummeted may always change the oil industry.
Goldman Sachs said on March 30 that as fewer and fewer companies with high -quality assets after the downturn, the unprecedented oil demand in the new crown epidemic plummeted may always change the oil industry.Wall Street Bank warned that despite the decline in the last price and another round of streamlined and twisted industries after 2015-2016, the capital expenditure of companies with a plunge in the price plunge will be limited.Goldman Sachs analyst wrote in the article: Large oil companies will integrate the best assets in the industry to remove the worst assets; when the industry rises from this downturn, companies with higher asset quality will be reduced, but capital constraints will be constrained, but capital constraints will be constrained.still exists.
Towards Nine: China's foreign trade recovery is far away and is not optimistic. The difficulty of opening up will continue to increase. The Belt and Road Initiative and four revolutions and cooperation will be more difficult to advance than before.
The prospect of China's foreign trade is quite dim.A research team of a disease research team in Harvard University shows that people around the world may need to intermittent social isolation by intermittently by the end of 2022.According to the expectations of the World Trade Organization in mid -April, in an optimistic situation, the global cargo trade will decline by 13%in 2020; in the pessimistic situation, the decline in cargo trade throughout the year may be as high as 32%.The IMF predicts that if the epidemic lasts until 2021, the global GDP may shrink by 2.2%next year.In this case, China's economic pressure will be relatively large in the past two years.With the continuous globalization and the increase in China's suppression of China, China's difficulty will continue to increase. The cooperation between the Belt and Road and four revolutions and one cooperation will be more difficult than before.
Top 10: In the future, it will depend on the development of international cooperation.
Although it seems difficult at present, we can only rely on international cooperation.The United States prioritize the preferential strategy of curbing China at the moment, so that the world's only superpowers in the world will lead the international cooperation without sincerity.Just as the United States has the suppression of other challengers in history, when China's total economic volume exceeds two -thirds, the United States has difficulty to tolerate the continuous high -speed growth of the Chinese economy.Make China suffering from the deterioration of international macro environment, its strategic priority has exceeded the benefits brought by leadership international cooperation.At present, China is still difficult to consolidate the Western world, and does not have the ability to independently lead the leaders of international governance.For a long time in the future, the logic of politics will surpass the logic of the economic logic and become the key to affecting the stability of the global macro environment.
(Note: The author Peng Shengyu works in a China Petroleum Central Enterprise and serves as a strategic researcher. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
