Social Comment: The Taiwan Strait approaches the ＂critical point＂ of the United Sta

Wangbao Society Review

For independent factions and green camp supporters, the United States is a rare historical opportunity. Taiwan and the United States have a greater opportunity for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Taiwan and the United States.It is impossible to deny that the fact that the official relations of the United States and Taiwan are increasingly described, but the motivation behind it is far from the words of the two words or anti -Chinese words, but the problem that involves the discerning of the enemy and friends of China and the United States.

Recently, after the hot discussion, the new championship period, the United States and China have been in the new cold war. In fact, as early as 2015, the well -known American Tong Lampledon pointed out that Sino -US relations are close to the critical point.At that time, the Obama was in the era of governance. China and the United States cooperated quite closely in the climate, energy and other fields. The four high -level dialogue mechanisms of both sides had just established the four major dialogue mechanisms of the strategy, economy, law enforcement, and network.Mist, I think Langpton's saying is inexplicable.

At that time, Lampton's Sino -US relations were close to the critical point for outsiders. An important reason involved the problem of Chinese translation.Langpton had clarified in Beijing in Beijing. The critical point he said is Tipping Point instead of Turning Point.In short, he believes that Sino -US relations at that time were in a very delicate balance state. As long as someone gently gently used his fingers (TIP), the balance state would be broken.Facts have proved that Trump's emergence confirms Lampton's judgment and also allows the title of the master of international relations.Trump's election has become a Tipping Point shown in Lampleton.

The definition of the critical point and the turning point is very important, because the current situation of the Taiwan Strait is also approaching the Tipping Point with the strength of the two stronger China and the United States in the Western Pacific.In other words, as long as a certain time in the future, under a certain condition, as long as any party of China and the United States, as long as it is slightly gently, there will be a sync with the mainland for compulsory unity and the United States abandoning Taiwan.The existing pattern of cross -strait relations.

The critical point of the sync effect in the Taiwan Strait needs to meet three conditions: First, the hard power of China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, that is, military strength has been sitting, and both sides no longer have the ability to destroy or curb each other.Second, the mainland quickly enters the full -time mobilization system, and its economy can still maintain a certain efficiency operation in the state of war. Third, the internal or around the Taiwan Strait has a famous cause or fuse of the mainland divisions.If the above conditions are compared with the current cross -strait and international situation one by one, the approach point of the Taiwan Strait is not alarmist.

First of all, the mainland has gradually controlled the South China Island Reef after 2012. Since 2016, the mainland has marked the normalization and actualization of military training in Taiwan.The US military's military operation to the West Coast of the Pacific.Especially since the beginning of this year, the high density and strength of the military players in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea have even highlighted the fact that the mainland is not afraid of the US military in the Western Pacific.Americans are not reckless husbands, nor are fools. China and the United States are close -up of military games again and again. Instead of showing muscles, it is better to be a stress test. Presumably, in the pressure test again and again, the United States completely feels the hard strength of the mainland.Essence

Secondly, in the past, whether it was Taiwan or the US strategic community, they had discussed that the cost of martial arts Taiwan, which is too high in the mainland, will touch the CCP rule.The most important argument is that the southeast coast of the mainland is economic town, and in the long -term reform and opening up environment, mainland society no longer has strong mobilization.However, after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the mainland's emergency scheduling ability, national mobilization efficiency, and the intensity of wartime management were impressed.I can't help but ask, if the mainland starts the compulsory unified process under the high support of the internal public opinion, will the regime in response to the public opinion be collapsed?

Finally, it is the most personal problem.The China and the United States have reached the most tight moments in the Tiber of the Taiwan Strait. As long as Taiwan is gently effort, it may make the situation completely clear.The United States often holds themselves with the medium of cross -strait relations and the balanced person. Once the governors in Taiwan think that the Taiwan governors are relying on the mainland, they will be caught back in Mingli. On the contrary, once Taiwan thinks that the mainland will be over, they will immediately put on the hood of the troublemaker and forced the forced manufacturer’s hat and forced the forcedIt is obedient.However, since 2016, the United States' goodness of Taiwan is very different from the past, and it is almost dragged by the Tsai government.Why?Of course, the hard power of China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait is close to reversal. Washington has not been able to play before, so that it has to tighten Taiwan!

The American academic community has always been said to abandon Taiwan, and many people are regarded as talking on paper or separating from reality.Nothing!For the United States, it is not contradictory to abandon Taiwan and constantly support Taiwan, because it is just a decision or idea of abandoning Taiwan in a certain extreme situation.In the same way, the day when the mainland's determination to start mandatory unity may be the day when the United States abandon Taiwan's theory.

How to face the reshuffle of geopolitics in the post -epidemic era, the Tsai government needs to think deeply, and every Taiwanese must think clearly.