Author: Liu Yanting
On February 20, a Canadian woman was diagnosed with a new crown pneumonia. After the doctor inquired about the history of tourism, he stated that he had just returned from a certain country in the Middle East.Coincidentally, many countries in the Middle East have also appeared in the case of diagnosis. First, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Barin, Kuwait, and Oman notified the WHO, followed by Pakistan, Georgia, and Estonia, which bordered the Middle East.The epidemic spread, Thunder is not as good as to cover his ears.
In the above -mentioned statement cases, almost all patients have the same point as the Canadian women, that is, in the near future, Iranian tourism history is available in the near future.On the other hand, although Iranian authorities announced on February 19 that two confirmed cases were discovered, according to the aforementioned transnational infection scale, the virus should have spread in the territory for a while, but it was restrained by some political force.Kai; however, the Middle East countries also took it lightly, thus tasting the bitter fruit of cross -border diffusion.
In the era of globalization, it is not easy to accurately track the spread of the virus; but the epidemic from Iran has a unique local religious mark mdash; MDASH; Shiites pilgrimage culture.
The first two diagnosis cases announced by the Iranian government have a total of mdash; Mdash; all of them are from Kum (QOM), and neither of the history of tourism abroad has been recently.Kum is also a sacred place in Shiite. Each year, it attracts more than 20 million Muslims to come to the pilgrimage. There are both Iranians and many exterior Shiites.According to statistics, most of them come from MDash, MDASH; MDash; Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Barin, etc., which are highly coincided with this outbreak.
Although the initial approach of the virus into Kum is still unknown, as early as the Iranian government announced the number of diagnostic people, the epidemic has obviously spread in the local area; because of its unique religious status, countless pilgrims have become carriers without knowing it.And after these Shiitic Muslims at home and abroad, after going to Kum, or those who have infected, bring the virus back to their hometown, may be Tehran, or Kuwait.The epidemic naturally spread like this.
Through Cam's case side writing, in fact, the two major influences of Shiites's pilgrimage tradition can be vaguely described on the Middle East epidemic.Essence
At the first level of influence, we may ask that the Muslim world has the practice of Macca's dynasty. Why should Shitian develop another parallel pilgrimage tradition?In the final analysis, it is still closely related to the consciousness of being a minority.Looking at the Muslim world, Shiites only account for 38.6 % of the population. Except for Azerbaijan, Barin, Iran and Iraq, Shiites are relatively minority in other Middle East countries.In countries such as Lebanon's sectarianism, Shiite, which only accounts for 27%of the population, can also enjoy legal political and social rights; but if it is in Saudi Arabia, Shiites will only be suppressed.But the overall memory of this community began before the founding of Saudi Arabia.
In 680 AD, the Muslim world broke out of the famous civil war-Calbala battle. In the end, the winner of the Sunni faction was the king of the Islamic world.After being slaughtered, the Shiite was marginalized. Although there were occasional Safavi dynasties in the middle, it still could not shake the mainstream status of Sunni.
It is this long -term minority state that makes Shiites a need for consolidation of identity consciousness.Therefore, it gradually develops the connotation of mutual beliefs with Sunni, and establishes the practice of mourning Hussein because of its core beliefs, such as marching on the street in Ashura, self -whipping, or going to Shiites SchoolWang Xianxian's mourning, through the ritual of the bloody war in 680 AD, to establish the subjectivity of Shiites, thereby conveying the sense of perseverance and unity, which is a vague identity resistance.
Therefore, in addition to Mecca, McLeine and Jerusalem, in the cognition of Shiite Muslims, Iraq's Karbala, Najaf, Iran's Mashhad, and Kumm, etc.Because of the place where Shiita's ancestors were located, it became the pilgrimage hotspot of Shiite at home and abroad, which triggered the phenomenon of the Iranian epidemic spread from Kum to various countries in the Middle East.
At the second influence level, Shiitian's pilgrimage practice will also increase the chance of participants in infection.First of all, the pilgrimage is a high -risk population dense activity, and the tomb is often in the mosque. Although the people entering the temple may not talk, they still gather in a relatively closed space.It is a public object that many people have taken. Once a patient with a latent period leaves the virus on it, it will easily cause large -scale pollution.
And some special customs of Shiites are also easy to cause virus transmission. For example, using Turbah (#1578;#1585;#1576;#1577;)Rainers and so on.Turbai is a small round pottery burned by dirt. It looks like both stone chess and pastries. I have seen it many times in Iran in the past.It symbolizes that he is buckled on the earth.Although the piety behind this move is moving, the Turbai is the same as the Gulan. It is the same as the Mosque. It is very close to the human mouth and nose, and naturally has a high risk of infectious infection.
However, although the above -mentioned pathway sounds are worrying, they have not kissed the holy tomb guardrail directly.When Shitian Muslims come to the Holy Tomb, they often pray in front of the coffin, and even cry, and then stroke and kiss the metal guardrail outside the coffin, intending to sorrow and ask for blessing.If in Chengping period, this belief practice is understandable; but when the epidemic is popular, it will easily become an infected hotspot.In order to admire the coffin, the crowd will be squeezed in the narrow tomb room; second, the cleaning frequency of these metal guardrails is not high, and the degree of disinfection is not enough. As a result, when people mourn, not only do they not wear a mask to cover their mouths and nose, but they also have nose, but they also have no masks, but they also have nose, but they also have no masks, but they also have masks, but they also have nose, but they also have no masks.Continuously exchanging each other's saliva on these metals. If one person has been infected, then the later parties are in contact with the source of the infection, and the risk of infection is naturally very high.
Under the role of Shiites's pilgrimage tradition, Kum has become a virus transfer station at home and abroad at home and abroad, but when people are epidemic, they are willing to travel thousands of miles to come to the pilgrimage.The news is related.At this point, the Iranian government was hard to blame.
Looking at the epidemic governance experience of countries around the world, at the beginning of the outbreak, in order to avoid panic, most governments often temporarily block or hide some news to avoid stability to avoid social disorder.Although the Iranian government also has this thinking, it is more practical, but it is more for politics to consider mdash; MDash; that is, the voting rate of Congress elections on February 21.
Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, this is the 11th Congress election.In Iran's politics, the main role of Congress is legislation, approved annual budget and international treaty, etc. Although its right to speak in foreign affairs is limited, it is more focused on economic and internal affairs issues.Therefore, it is regarded as an outpost of the 2021 Presidential Election.However, the folk does not pay much attention to this election. On the one hand, the people do not have high hopes for the gentleness and conservative factions in politics. Second, it is the political intervention before the election.It seems that the difference is not much.
In the gentle camp, President Rouhani has been repeatedly frustrated. In the past, he advocated improving relations with the West and signed the Iranian Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA) in 2015 to abandon the nuclear in exchange for the United States to relax economic sanctions.The risk of risks is found; however, the way Trump returns to Rouhani is also particularly creative, that is, after taking office, it is announced that the United States will withdraw from the nuclear agreement unilaterally and return to the horse to increase the economic sanctions against Iran.Those who are forced to the zero export of oil.
In the past, Iran responded to international sanctions.The three pillars of petroleum, smuggling and sightseeing can be rely on; however, as soon as the main bone of petroleum is down, the economic weakness can no longer hide it, and it directly collapses the local mdash; mdash; the national inflation rate has risen to 33.5%, and the overall economy shrinks.9%; even worse, it also triggered the grievances of the people.After the sanctions began, Rouhani faced hundreds of anti -government movements of different sizes every month. The most serious is the anti -oil price increase in November 2019., Resulting in hundreds of demonstrators.
Compared with the mild faction, the economic governance is not popular, and the conservatives are not much better.Generally speaking, Iranian conservatives do not advocate good relationships with the West, and they also oppose international treaties such as nuclear agreements and believe that this is a conspiracy to deceive Iran.As a result, Trump's sharp turn after taking office, unexpectedly proved that the conservatives' estimates were accurate in advance, just to win the favor of many voters; coupled with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Holy City Brigade, Qasem Soleimani, January this yearIt was killed by the United States, and it has always been a conservative representative, and the tragedy and anger in China naturally help the election.
However, there are unexpected winds and clouds, and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), who is also a conservative spokesperson (IRGC), accidentally hit Ukrainian airliner in January this year, causing several Iranian citizens to be killed. In addition to the demonstration suppression of last November, there is also a handwriting.The old hatred was added together, and there were always a group of people vowed not to wear the sky with the conservatives.However, the conservatives seem to be bound to get it. After several considerations, their decisions have decided to get started from the selection.
Before the election appeared, the Guardian Council, controlled by the supreme leader Hamenei, opened a killing ring and canceled nearly half of the election qualifications of thousands of mild candidates, including 90 members, shapeThe same system forced the mild faction.Although the above measures are valid, it is really ugly, making many people shout, and most people actually know it. Regardless of whether this victory is conservative or gentle, as long as the United States does not let go, Iran's economy is not suddenly spring.I'm afraid I will continue to deteriorate.
Faced with the voting sounds that are not voting on the Internet, the Iranian government is also in the eyes, and this is one of the reasons why it is determined to conceal the epidemic.Judging from the logic of the Iranian government, most people now have no hope of the election; if the epidemic is announced at this time, I am afraid that it will scare more supporters and make them dare not go out to vote.However, the voting rate of the election is related to the legitimacy of the regime. Therefore, in order to allow the people to have one less reason to go out, the two political figures of the two factions uniformly caliber MDash; mdash;
Therefore, even if the people have passed on the news that Cam had a diagnosis case in early February, the government always denied it, and the central officials had repeatedly speaking, such as claiming that these rumors were to panic in the West; others including the city without blocking the city.Fengcheng has long been the old method of dealing with malaria before World War I. Patients do not have to go to the hospital, rest at home, drink water to supplement vitamins, welcome everyone to continue to come to Kum pilgrimage, Kum will always be open for everyone.
In this atmosphere, Iran successfully held a revolutionary victory day parade on February 11; but the government also announced that it was restricted to the export of medical supplies, and a raining atmosphere was brewing.Finally, on February 19, the countdown before the election, the Iranian government announced that two confirmed cases appeared in Kuum Province, and both of them had died.Please vote.As a result, the voting rate was still low, only 42%.But the reflection of the people's sentiment is about to start fermenting.
After the election on February 21, the confirmed data released by the government has soared rapidly, accompanied by various epidemic prevention measures, such as announced the suspension of the next week's concerts, sports competitions and all cultural activities, and requires serious outbreak provinces.High school, university, and higher education institutions have been suspended, and mosques that have canceled the epidemic in Tehran's epidemic area on Friday, banned cigarettes from cafe and water cigarette shops.However, the place of Zhaofa's land continued to open its pilgrimage. The government only asked it to limit the number of pilgrims. Instead, Saudi Arabia was frightened and has announced the cancellation of this year's Macga Chao.
It can be seen from the above methods that the Iranian government has no intended to seal the city, and its main scruples are the severe economic situation in China.Since playing the United States and Iraq, Iran has experienced 41 years of economic sanctions. Even if humanitarian products such as food, drugs and medical equipment are all exempted, under the wind of the international atmosphere, many European banks and companies are worried that they will be subject to the United States.Two sanctions, so they dare not dare to have humanity with Iranian traders; although Iran's drugs can be produced by domestic, many imported raw materials are still in short supply.
So this has led to two situations. One is that there are fake medicines in Iran, and the other is that Iran's medical system is becoming fragile due to lack of material. Iranians have therefore developed the habit of minor illness.Okay, you don't have to go to the pharmacy to buy medicine; if you can buy medicine and take it well, you don't have to go to the hospital.In response to the epidemic, Iran's detection reagents were insufficient and the masks were not enough, not to mention the left -right and right puppet of the medical equipment, and the force of sanctions showed here.
As of February 28th, Iran's diagnosis has reached 338. Kum, Tehran, Jilan, Mazzadra and other places have the heaviest. The cumulative deaths have been 34, and the mortality rate of the epidemic is about 10%.However, considering factors such as the government blockade and medical equipment, this data is not necessarily accurate. First, Iranians do not seek medical treatment.EssenceAlthough the Iranian government has the meaning of prevention and blocking now, it is still priority to maintain stability, because Iran has neither the economic cost of stopping the city, nor the medical base of the people who storage to the hospital.Various medical resources are used to use some patients with priority treatment.
However, the people's anger is difficult to calm down.At present, Iran complains about the government's anti -epidemic public opinion about three categories. One is to condemn the government to conceal the epidemic, which has caused it to be out of control today.As a result, it is not enough now; the third is that the core senior officials of the divine power can be contaminated with new crown pneumonia, and once the end of all Iranians can be ended.The third voice is of course a minority, but with the recent diagnosis of the Deputy Minister of Health and Vice President of the Ministry of Health of Iran, and the death of the former ambassador to Vatican, the supporters of this group also made a cheerful in their own small world.
This epidemic is a raid test for national governance.Under the thinking of religious practice and stability, Iran first missed the warning time and lacks a good monitoring tracking system, which led to the spread of the epidemic to the Middle East;, Tired of running, look panting and pale.After paying a high cost price, the epidemic will always calm down, but the people's hearts that are gradually separated from bureaucracy, economic dilemma, and governance dilemma may be the big test that the Iranian government can never escape.
