01 Viewpoint

The US stocks plummeted day by day. On Thursday (27th), the Taoist closing the market fell nearly 1,200 points, setting the biggest decline in a single day in history. In the past five trading days, a cumulative decline of 3,453 points, a decline of 11.8%.field.The root cause of the plunge in US stocks is that the situation of new coronary virus pneumonia will spread to the United States and cause serious blows to the economy.However, the number of new crown pneumonia is not significant. There are only 60 segments so far, including 42 passengers who are not infected in the United States. Maybe many people think that the epidemic should have a small impact on the United States.EssenceSome comments also pointed out that the United States' treatment of new types of pneumonia is rather than loosening, representing the government's attention, rather than the epidemic.However, the U.S. stock market, which is known for rationality, has plummeted every day, it seems that it is not so simple.Whether the American epidemic is just a false alarm, it can be analyzed from a few points.

No diagnosis without testing

As far as the number of diagnosis is justified, the epidemic in many places is actually not serious.However, in addition to the uncertainty, it depends on the detection number to know the real situation of the epidemic.In fact, the epidemic broke out from the beginning of China. In addition to the consistent response to the countries and regions that have been in the pain of SARS in Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, etc., many countries have very low sensitivity to the epidemic in many countries.Except for high -risk people who come from Wuhan or China or have intimate contact with them, many countries will not take the initiative to check whether citizens have new types of pneumonia.

Since there is no examination, the number of diagnosis is not high.However, the virus may have been introduced through other channels, lurking or even spread in the community, and the actual number of infections may far exceed the official diagnosis number.Recently, the examples of South Korea and Italy are just reflected. As long as it is carefully checked, the infected numbers can definitely increase amazingly.South Korea announced on the 27th of this month that the number of diagnosis exceeded 2,000, but the number of diagnosis a week ago was only less than 100.This is why WHO began to warn the risk of the outbreak of the epidemic in the world, calling on countries to take it seriously.

US medical expenses are high

The situation in the United States may be similar.The number of new crown pneumonia inspection is very low, and the number of natural diagnosis is very low.The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) warned the United States on Tuesday (25th) to have a great opportunity to explode the new crown pneumonia epidemic, pointing out that most of the patients who may be considered influenza may actually be stained with new crown pneumonia.In addition to the issue of consciousness, this also includes the problem of excessive domestic medical expenses in the United States.Due to the high medical expenses, many people are unwilling to see a doctor even if they are sick; even if they go to a doctor, because the disease signs of the new crown pneumonia are similar to the flu, many people are unwilling to spend an additional test of new crown pneumonia.EssenceThe last President Barack Obama pushed the national compulsory medical insurance (Obamacare), which was largely to cope with the problem of excessive medical expenses.However, after Trump took office, the economic policy pro -enterprise has lifted the mandatoryness of medical insurance and abolished the Obama medical reform policy in disguise.

The US Congress questioned why the authorities checked the number very low, and the authorities had not yet prepared the test box, and it would not be possible to apply it until March, which means that it is difficult to confirm the number of diagnosis at this stage to judge the American epidemic.Especially at this stage, the number of people in the world has risen sharply. Many invisible patients who do not have a history of outsourcing and the history of contact may be flowing freely.On the 17th, a couple in Nagoya, Japan confirmed a new crown pneumonia. They only traveled to Hawaii from January 28th to February 7th, which has caused speculation whether their infection is from the United States.As of Wednesday (26th), California appeared in California's first diagnosis case without a history of no contact history. The CDC stated that it failed to trace its source of infection and show that community communication is likely to occur.

Trump's light description

Many people in the United States are worried about the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, and even CDC has issued a very clear warning, but the government is ignorant and seems to want to be understood.President Trump publicly pointed out that the new crown pneumonia is similar, and he calls on the people to not have to panic.During the Sino -US trade war, Trump has repeatedly twisted a key role in the rise and fall of the stock market.The trade war was opened by Trump. Between the battle and to a large extent, but the epidemic was a scientific issue. It was not that Trump said that it would be possible to travel according to market forecasting.

In addition, the Trump administration announced on Wednesday that Vice President Pence will coordinate the announcement of all official new crown pneumonia. Although the official explanation does not want to conceal, it is darker and darker.Recently, the Minister of Land and Safety was asked by members of the parliament in the parliamentary hearing. I did not know about it. The members have repeatedly questioned that you should protect our safety, isn't it?The various light descriptions of the US government cannot soothe the hearts of the people, but also make more Americans start guessing that Trump deliberately dilutes the impact of the epidemic because of the fear of affecting the election of the US presidential election this year.

Under the influence of many uneasy factors, the U.S. epidemic is not clear, and the stock market is probably just beginning.