Society: Dont underestimate the impact of the epidemic on the economy

Source: Economic Daily Society

As the new coronary virus epidemic continues to spread around the world, panic has become increasingly aggravated. All circles are eager to know when the epidemic can be controlled and then calm down?What is the influence and degree of the entire incident on the global economic impact?After the epidemic, the economy is a rapid V -type rebound, a U -shaped rebound, or a downturn L -shaped trend.

In this regard, Oxford Economics (Oxford Economics) is predicted today that the epidemic will reduce the growth rate of China's GDP to 5.4%this year, and the visual virus will spread in Asia or the world.A percentage point; Moody's credit rating agency Moody believes that if the epidemic has deteriorated, the global GDP growth will fall to 1.1%; the IMF is relatively optimistic, and the predictable epidemic will reduce the growth rate of China GDP from 6.0%of the previous forecast to 5.6%,The world is repaired from 3.3%to 3.2%, and when the epidemic no longer continues to deteriorate, GDP growth is expected to recover.

However, no matter what economic models predict the economic impact and recovery of the epidemic, there must be a pre -assumption of the severity, duration and influence of the epidemic itself, that is, the prediction capabilities of each economic model, which depends on the determinationThe assumptions of possible development of the epidemic.The problem is the prediction of the mathematical model running out of the current epidemic development and the assessment of government epidemic prevention measures, as well as the prediction of the epidemic prediction issued by the relevant institutions and experts in Britain and the United States.During the peak, the epidemic may stabilize in April.In contrast to the development of out of control in the current outbreak, it is obvious.

Furthermore, according to the typical epidemiological mathematical model, it can be seen that the dynamic process of the spread of epidemic can be depicted as a S -shaped curve with the timeline, and the cumulative number of infected people can be divided into four stages: the first stage of the relatively gentleness, after that, after thatThe virus began to spread quickly, and came to the stage of an increased increase in the increase in the number of infected people; when the number of newly cured cure was higher than that of the infection number, it would enter the third stage when the number of infected people increased and slowed down;At the stage of the plateau, the epidemic gradually subsided.

However, the differential equation model behind the dynamic changes in the epidemic is not solved by algebraic solutions. Operating fashion must be calibrated by experts.Therefore, if the relevant unit wants to apply this model to the development of the epidemic, not only need to have a precise grasp of the current epidemic, but also to understand the virus characteristics and infection pathway, so as to estimate the infection rate, contact rate, course of disease and death rateWait for parameter values.

But it is regrettable that the current medical scientific community's understanding of the new crown virus and the transmission pathway is still not clear enough.First, the epidemic is still in the development stage. The confirmed case may be only the corner of the iceberg. The infection of mild and asymptomatic cases is still unknown.Choose a country where the epidemic is concealed; second, it is difficult to judge who is infectious patients and easy to infect people when the source of the virus, the number of infected people, and the case information of the case is insufficient.Dynamic changes at different speeds are not allowed to accurately calculate the infection rate and death rate.Therefore, the accuracy of the calibration values of the entry is not high, and the quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of vaccine prevention measures, the intensity decision -making of the response measures, and the estimation of the needs of medical resources will be quite difficult.

From this we can see that at this stage, it is necessary to judge when the epidemic is ended early, and as the overall economic estimate of the premise of the premise of the assumptions (the impact of GDP growth rate, the prediction of the recovery, and the financial market trend)Can be called speculation.Therefore, if the results of the model estimated by the models from all walks of life are likely to underestimate its seriousness, which will cause government and corporate decisions to be exposed to major risks.

To put it, due to the continuous spread of the epidemic, the ability and harm of the virus are still difficult to estimate. Therefore, the strategy of evaluating the impact of the epidemic at this stage should be in order to improve the awareness of risk.Professional calibration provided by the economic impact provided by the institution.In addition, due to the great difference in influence of individual industries, the government should also evaluate the influence length, breadth and depth of the characteristics of the individual industry, and the industry should track the development of the epidemic at any time to adjust the decision to make the epidemic in the economy and enterprises.The impact caused by operations to the minimum.