On January 22, the US President Trump, who was at a loss at the Davos World Economic Forum Annual Conference, emphasized in an interview with reporters: Boeing is too disappointed!The reason is that the Boeing crisis has lowered 0.5 percentage points of GDP (GDP).
This statement is not a listening theory, but a saying that the AFP quotes US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, including the floor of the 737 MAX series passenger aircraft, which may lower the GDP 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points.Based on the 2019 US GDP 2.22 trillion US dollars (approximately 3 trillion yuan), Boeing caused US GDP to lose US $ 110 billion to $ 154 billion.This is indeed not a decimal. For Trump, which resolves the impeachment crisis and win the second term, Boeing undoubtedly pulls the hind legs.
Boeing's trouble is not accidental.In October 2018, Indonesia Lion Airlines and two crashes in Ethiopia in March 2019. More than 300 people were killed and the models involved were 737 MAX.After investigation, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reported that the 737 MAX design has a loophole and believes that the model may have one of the most risk of accidents in decades.A catastrophic accident occurs.
In this situation, not only the model was grounded and banned by many countries and regions, but also seriously affected the Boeing image, which led to the evaporation of the stock price of Boeing orders.Data show that Boeing Aircraft lost $ 460 billion in orders.Boeing believes that the 737 MAX resumed flight is estimated to wait until the year.
Trump's disappointment of Boeing is understandable.When Boeing encountered a crisis, Airbus ushered in opportunities.The global large aircraft market is basically divided by Boeing and Airbus, and Boeing is slightly dominant.At present, according to the data of German Merklore Weekly, Airbus has delivered a total of 863 commercial planes in 2019, an increase of 7.9%from the 800 sets of the previous year. It is also the first time that it has surpassed Boeing in the past eight years to become the world's largest commercial aircraft manufacturer.
Moreover, Airbus surpasses Boeing and achieves in the Chinese market.On the one hand, China is the first country to fly the Boeing 737 MAX model. Because China ’s models account for the most in the global market, there is no support for the Chinese market, and the proportion of Boeing market is very smooth.The market vacancy left by Boeing is mainly supplemented by Airbus, with a total value of more than 240 billion yuan (about 47.4 billion yuan).In addition, the Chinese -made C919 large aircraft also got a share in the global market, with an order exceeding a thousand.
After the Indonesian Lion Airlines broke out, it was the best time to stop loss of Boeing crisis.Egyptian Airlines again, and the lives of more than 300 people fell, so that the world was no longer calm, and Boeing was in crisis.Nevertheless, Boeing response is still proud.Among them, both Boeing Corporation has been reflected by conditions and has more economic considerations.
Of course, this is also a natural response as a monopoly enterprise.As the world's largest large aircraft supplier, Boeing is almost only one of Airbus competitors.Even if the Boeing 737 MAX is wrong, Boeing is the emperor's daughter who is not worried about marrying.Therefore, the Boeing crisis is actually the common problem of monopoly enterprises MDASH; MDASH; when the monopoly interests reach the limit, the outbreak of the accumulation causes the market crisis.As a result of the result of a monopoly enterprise, the result of not innovating.
The large aircraft market is slightly different. Even if China C919 is added, Boeing Airbus is mainly based on Boeing Airbus.Although Airbus is temporarily leading the market, if Boeing can achieve 737 MAX resumed, it will still be strongly competitive.After all, in the global air -flying market, Boeing occupies a considerable stock market, and the 737 MAX model cannot be banned.In addition, Boeing is not only a market issue, but also about the global competitiveness of the United States.Therefore, the Boeing crisis is not only a market crisis, but also about the competition of great powers.In short, the competition in the future large aircraft market also reflects the Romance of the three parties in China, the United States and Europe.
Boeing's thin camel is larger than horses. In the short term, many market troubles will be encountered, but they will not be stunned.Nevertheless, the signal released by the Boeing crisis also sounded the alarm for the United States.
On the one hand, Boeing's market setbacks reflect the shortcomings of the US manufacturing industry.After World War II, it became a global superpower.Data show that from 1950 to 1975, among the top 500 US companies, manufacturing companies accounted for nearly 80%, and the proportion of employment in the United States in the United States reached 38%of the employment population in 1945.
However, the US -dependent engineer dividend has now lost, and the traditional manufacturing industry has become a sunset industry.Although the United States occupies high -tech benefits, but chips are good and Internet technology. Although the United States has an unacceptable intellectual property rights worldwide, the United States does not have manufacturing support, and US high -tech products depend on manufacturing countries such as China.Although this is a reasonable division of labor under the globalization, it also highlights that the manufacturing industry has no basic support.
On the other hand, the US manufacturing industry is micro -micro, finance, law, medicine, and the Internet become the best choice for college students, especially well -known universities.Statistics show that 33%of graduates of American university graduates including Harvard University chose to engage in the financial industry, and only 17%are engaged in STEM (abbreviations in the four industries of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics).
In this situation, the advantages of the US steel, aviation, and automobile manufacturing have begun to fall.Wall Street's financial crisis seems to be caused by the over -greed of financial bosses, but it also shows how the risks of the vacuumization of the manufacturing industry are.Although the United States has the world's most powerful Internet unicorn companies, these companies depend on the global market, and the United States only occupies a high -end industrial chain.Even so, the United States still felt the threat from China and other trading partners.
The United States in Trump returned to the United States through a globalization way, highlighting the fact that the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry declined.The United States implements trade and scientific and technological warfare to major trade partners through extreme pressure, which is also an anxious response brought by the unstable foundation in the United States.
Before the Boeing air crash, it was a symbol of the American manufacturing power.The air crash allows Boeing to appear the original MDASH; mdash; not only lost 460 billion U.S. dollars, but also lowered the US GDP. This contrast naturally disappointed Trump MDASH; mdash; Jinyu was originally defeated.
After investigation, Boeing Air Cross is not unusual. In order to reduce costs, Boeing reduces its own production line through layers of outsourcing, and the quality cannot be guaranteed.And this is also a common problem in the global industry quality accidents.
(The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society, a guest researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China)
