Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
With the spread of the epidemic in mainland China, more and more factories are temporarily closed, which may have been on the global industrial supply chain for several years.
Both South Korea's Hyundai and Kia Auto announced that some of the assembly production lines in South Korea were suspended because the Wuhan epidemic caused a shortage of component supply, becoming the first batch of auto manufacturers outside the mainland due to the impact of the epidemic.
The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the scope of mainland China has surpassed SARS in 2003, the influence of Thailand's flood in 2011 or the 311 strong earthquake in Japan in 2011. The importance of mainland industry has also allowed global manufacturersThe stop work is only at the beginning, but the impact of this epidemic on the supply chain may still be felt after a few years.
Judging from the previous supply of intense accidents, you can understand that the situation is not optimistic.For example, after the 311 strong earthquakes and tsunami in Japan, GM closed the United States and European factories; another time in 2016, the reason is that important parts that cannot be obtained outside Japan are suddenly interrupted.In 2011, the flood in Thailand also forced the supply chain to adjust for a long time.
Research published in 2015 showed that as much as 60%of the overall economic impact caused by the 311 strong earthquake, as many as 60%was borne by other countries, and the United States bears a proportion of 25%.
The proportion of cargo exports in the world is now more than twice that the SARS epidemic is raging.The export of Guangdong Province in 2018 alone is more than the exports of the entire mainland 17 years ago.
Manufacturers have long worried about the impact of the suspension of work in the Lunar New Year. With the diffusion of the epidemic, the company's number of companies and the institutions conduct public health response measures on the epidemic.Essence
As far as the normal model has been concerned in the past ten years, the mainland's industrial production will be more than 20%lower than the average of 10 months in January and February.Earlier labor vacation time is different, but even if the average labor vacation is up to two weeks, it means that the industrial production during the vacation and the holidays operates about one -fifth of the normal potential.
