Economic Daily News
Due to the rise in the cross -strait confrontation situation and not far from the Taiwan election, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Mainland China announced on the government website that from August 1st, 47 cities have been free to travel to Taiwan. Compared with the past elections in the past, thisThe time limit of the sub -shrinking of the Luke is a few months earlier. The media estimates that it will impact up to 700,000 land customers, which has a great impact on the economy.
However, Cai Hongkun, the deputy head of the General General Office, was asked when asked about the impact of economic growth this year, and replied: If it affects the tourism revenue of NT $ 18 billion in tourism, it will affect the economic growth rate (GDP) 0.1%.This 18 billion yuan is assuming that the number of people coming to Taiwan will only reduce 500,000, each person stays for an average of seven days, and the average daily cost of $ 188 is estimated, and a total of 18 billion yuan will be reduced in Taiwan.
However, the response of the General Planning Office, just as the government had made quite serious mistakes on the evaluation of Luke's economic impact on Taiwan in the past, and completely underestimated the effect of Luke consumption on Taiwan's economy.In fact, whether it is 18 billion yuan or estimated to reduce more land passengers and the evaluation that may exceed 20 billion yuan is just the first wave of impact on the economy.In fact, when you receive these consumer merchants or vendors, you will use these income to make the second wave of consumption, but it may retain some of them and should be used as your own savings. These second waves of consumption will become another other.The income of a group of people will be consumed in the third wave.
Therefore, a wave of consumption one after another will continue to increase economic production and consumption, and note that the entire Taiwan economy has risen.
This phenomenon is called Multiplier Effect in economics. It usually makes the total effect a few times the first wave of effects. It depends on how much savings reserved by merchants or vendors.The less the effect; on the contrary, the more you spend, the more economic production and consumption created.
From the perspective of 80%of the average family consumption tendency in Taiwan in 2017, the total effect of continuous spending will be five times the first wave of effects.These concepts are actually very basic concepts in overall economics. All college students who have read the overall economics understand it. They are also the basic knowledge of searching for the effects of multiplication on the website.
Therefore, the impact of the suspension of Luke's free travel on Taiwan's economy is not just 180 or 20 billion yuan mentioned by the main plan, but it will be five times or 10 billion yuan;%, But 0.5%, this is not a small number. It is enough to reduce the growth rate of Taiwan this year from the estimated 2.34%estimated by the General Planning Office to 1.84%, which is to keep the 2 break.Essence
It affects the economic growth rate of 0.5%. Whether it is large or small, the data assessment is just a cold figure, and it is difficult to show its impact on the people.If it is impacted by the high -tech industry, the result may only be the profit of the high -tech bosses and the decrease of the year -end dividend of employees, which has little impact on ordinary people outside the industry.However, the reduction of the free travelers will impact the people's economy, that is, hotels, homestays, retail, catering, stall vendor, leisure, beauty, hairdressing, massage, numerology, etc.The fierce work is quite hard, and the income is relatively low; the effect of 1,000 billion yuan is missing, and if 1 million people are affected, it is equivalent to the revenue of each person to reduce 100,000 yuan.For 15,000 yuan, the impact is extremely huge for Shengdou Xiaomin's monthly income only 30,000 to 50,000 yuan.
And if it is operating tourism -related industries, especially the homestay industry or famous night market, which is free to travel, the impact is likely to be a Great Depression. This is difficult for senior government officials in the office to imagine or appreciate it.
But we are even more worried that this time the reduction of Luke may be the beginning of the more severe control in the future.If the Cai government fails to cherish the achievements that the former government has achieved efforts under the continuous efforts of cross -strait relations, the foundation of the exchanges between Beijing and the exchanges of cross -strait exchanges, continue to deepen the participation of the United States, Japan and India Strategy Alliance to the opposite side, support Hong Kong's anti -Chinese independent activitiesSo as the cross -strait confrontation situation rises, the Luke is completely cut off, and even if the killer in Beijing stops the three links on both sides of the strait, can the Taiwanese people really bear such economic consequences?
Regardless of whether cross -strait relations are to fight or fight, at least it should be responsible for telling the truth, including the impact of the reduction of land passengers this time, isn't it?
