Ming Pao News Agency
U.S. President Trump has once again made a surprising measure. The US business community generally believes that although there is no agreement on the Sino -US trade negotiations held in Shanghai, it can be regarded as a return date in September.However, Trump suddenly announced that a 10%tariff was imposed on US $ 300 billion in imports of Chinese imports, which caused the prospects of the trade war to fall into a confusing place.Both China and the United States are constantly picked the other party to go back. It is suspicious that for different purposes, both China and the United States are collecting tips. Trump is for the election. China is to buy time to make the economy transition.There will be more accidents.
It is generally not expected that Trump will announce the addition of tariffs on imported goods in China at this moment, not because Trump has agreed with the President of Osaka on June 29th ...too much.It is because of the game between China and the United States. The goodwill released by the two parties recently has more goodwill than confrontation. On the eve of the negotiations in Shanghai, the United States suspended the most controversial F-16 fighter to Taiwan; Trump publicly stated that it did not agree with Hong Kong's demonstration.It is also used to describe police -civilian conflicts that have recently appeared in Hong Kong with riots instead of previously used protests.China also ordered the United States to order soybean, frozen meat and cotton agricultural products. However, due to the required procedures for inquiry and other procedures, Trump said straightforwardly that China has not yet fulfilled the promise of purchasing American agricultural products.
The trade negotiations of high -level officials in China and the United States have opened 12 rounds, and 90 % of the differences have been resolved, and the last small problem remains, but in May, the negotiations were stuck in the rupture.Even so, in order to restart the negotiations, both sides have released goodwill, and the negotiations can continue to continue.However, the differences between the two sides seem to have no complete solution.The reason may be that China and the United States have entered a comprehensive stage stage. Trade disputes involve other struggles in other areas. From Huawei to Taiwan, there are many waves of waves. Trump has repeatedly stated that it will reach a comprehensive historic agreement.It's impossible at all.
China's delay in trade agreement buying time to develop high -tech
Trump said more than once that China is delaying negotiations and hopes to drag until the US election next year. When his opponent wins, he will re -talk about the conditions.Do Trump really think so?Is China really doing this?The outside world cannot guess, but various signs show that both China and the United States are indeed dragging. China is very simple to restart the price of the negotiations. It is not that the United States should first impose tariffs.It is estimated that the motivation of this move in China is also very simple. What China needs time to develop high -tech and the transformation of economic development models. Although some areas have caught up with or even lead the world level in high -tech, they are still quite backward in many aspects.However, China has self -confidence and ability. As long as high -tech develops, the economic transformation will be more effective and smoother.To achieve these two goals, the importance of Sino -US trade to China will be reduced.
The presidential election of the United States every four years is a big deal for Americans.Trump's campaign is re -elected. History has proven that the chance of winning for re -election is high, and the results of the polls show that his support is high.The key factor that affects voters' voting orientation is the economy. The US economy has performed well since Trump took office. In the case of various data reflected, Trump still puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, which has forced the latter to be forced to be forced to be forced to be forcedAt a quarter of the dividend, Trump also believed that he was not having enough, showing that he was paving the way for the election.
Trump delayed negotiation to attack the Democratic Party
Since economic performance is the key factor in campaign, Trump knows that the increase in tariffs will cause the price of consumer goods to rise and affect inflation. It is known that no matter how much tariffs are added, it is impossible to transfer the positions produced by a factory in China.Do you not reach an agreement with China as soon as possible?On the contrary, the long arm of the United States extend further, and the threat of tariffs has been extended to the EU, Japan, India and even the latest Vietnam.This performance seems to run counter to the preparation for the election.
In fact, the trade negotiations are highly flexible and random, and the United States is the largest commodity input country, with a lot of chips and tools.It has been proven in the past few years that as long as it is re -negotiated, the United States can be described as windy and rainy.The negotiations with the north adjacent to Canada can only win in other respects in other respects in the end of the milk product; even if the strong opponent is in the face of strong opponents such as the EU, it is tough.In the issue of car tariffs, you can freeze without improving tariffs. When you need to implement it, everything is still the United States.Whether the United States wants to wait for the election to be approaching, make several killers. At that time, the situation is also possible to reach some agreements with China. It can completely tear up the negotiations to stop the negotiations indefinitely. All the needs of the election situation.And Trump has been accusing China of the dragging tactics that China is hoping on the Democratic candidate. As long as the negotiations have no results, they can continue to attack the Democratic opponent. This is his election calculation.
China adopts the tips and talked while talking, when can it promise what conditions, it is still elusive; the uncertain factors produced in the United States are even more uncertain. Today, it is encouraged to withdraw from China to Vietnam.Enterprises are more confusing to Vietnam's tariffs.Both of the two big powers have a lot of chips, and they do not play cards according to cards. They are good in the play.
