Early
New Tune of Haida
After China and the United States launched trade consultations in Shanghai, the history of the Shanghai Bulletin did not repeat the history of the Shanghai Bulletin, but it was the old drama reproduction of the repeated trade war.
On August 1, local time, US President Trump threw a shocking bomb and levied a 10%tariff on another 300 billion US dollars (about S $ 412.9 billion) from September 1st, because China did not fulfill its promiseBuying American agricultural products in a lot did not prevent fentanyl from flowing into the United States.This has made the Sino -US trade war that has been difficult to stop on the verge of comprehensively out of control, and it also caused the consensus consensus that China and the United States had reached in Osaka at the end of June almost ruptured.
Although the outside world is not unfamiliar with Trump's shade, this round of tariff threat without warning is still unexpected.Because just one day ago, the representatives of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States were negotiated with face -to -face talks after the restarting negotiations in Shanghai. Although it did not reach substantial results, the surface atmosphere was still harmonious.
Some Chinese public opinion made an article on the negotiating location before the talks. It mentioned that the old past of the former US President Nixon's visit to China in 1972 obviously hoped that Shanghai could create a good atmosphere for China and the United States to break the ice again.
Judging from the photos taken at the Western Suburb Hotel on July 31, the two parties mainly negotiated with Mdash; MDASH; Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and even the more serious US trade representative LittichizerThe expression is relatively easy.The three of them also dinner the night before the negotiations and enjoyed the night view of the Huangpu River.
On the 31st, the talks ended half an hour earlier, which once allowed the outside world to speculate that both parties were unhappy.However, the Chinese and American officials consistently said that the talks were constructive. China will increase the purchase of agricultural products from the United States. The two sides also agreed to continue negotiations in September.The Ministry of Commerce of China also revealed that the working layers of the two countries will be exposed densely in August to pave the way for senior consultations in September.
Because the outside world did not expect the Shanghai talks to make a hammer, this result does not look too bad, and Trump's conflict of Twitter immediately reversed the plot. Friendship boats can be said to be turned over, but it is so rumoredIt is estimated that no one expected.
As soon as the news came out, the three major U.S. stock index dived, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index once fell more than 600 points. Chinese A shares also emptied and lowered yesterday.
The emergence of the Sino -US trade dispute is not unable to find it. Just when the representatives of all parties were negotiated with Shanghai, Trump did not hesitate to destroy the atmosphere of the negotiations, accusing China of not fulfilling his commitments and delaying negotiations, and saying that if he was re -elected, he would be right.China has worse trade conditions.
This time Trump announced a new tariff that it was only 36 hours from the US trade consultation representative. Obviously, the talks did not shorten the distance between the two parties.
Trump is anxious to achieve success and pressure
The focus of this round of consultation is that China ’s increase in the procurement of American agricultural products is a fruit that is easier to pick in the process of searching for consensus in China and the United States. Even this issue cannot make progress, it also highlights that China and the United States have to achieve consistency in principle issues.
Some analysts pointed out that Trump's face changed this time because he was eager to re -election. He needed to get a trade agreement sufficient to declare victory in China as soon as possible. Seeing that Beijing adopted a long -term confrontation strategy to be treated.Extreme pressure testing, creating bargaining bargaining, forcing China to concessions as soon as possible.
However, from the recent research and deployment of China's official economic situation, in terms of the statement about the marketization of deep excavation of domestic demand into a crisis, it is obviously more emphasized than in the past.For a long time, the preparation for the long -term war mobilization made by domestic public opinion was less likely to make compromise because of the limit pressure of the limit test of the first ride in May this year.
Faced with the new change, Beijing responded strongly yesterday, condemning the United States to seriously violate the consensus of Osaka, the heads of state of China and the United States, and said that China will have to take necessary countermeasures, emphasizing that it will resolutely defend the national core interests and the fundamental interests of the people, and some of the people will, and some willThe consequences are all borne by the United States.
Before the Shanghai talks, although everyone knew that the difference between the two sides was huge, but sitting down and face -to -face conversation was better than seeing it. They could release a little goodwill, which was better than the swords on both sides.The failure of the talks today has caused China and the United States to fall into the dead cycle of negotiations, rupture, head of state, re -negotiation, and rupture.
The repeat of the trade war has become the norm, but what is worrying is that in this week, the patience of the two sides may be exhausted, the gap will become bigger and bigger, and the rationality will eventually be replaced by impulse.What is even more frightening is that there will be a small fuse to detonate the two countries with more destructive guns to fire in the field of trade war?
Whether Trump will go to the end of the tax increase, it is still unknown. He leaves room for Twitter, expressing his expectations to actively talk to China for a comprehensive trade agreement.From the current situation, everyone still has to prepare for the worst results. After all, once the trade war is out of control, for the global economy and situation, it is by no means to overturn a friendly boat and set off a few waves of ripples, waiting for us to wait for usIt may be a thrilling tsunami, which makes people shudder.
