The British Economist Magazine launched the forecast series of the 2024 trend last month. The cover design left the side of the earth and shadow -the side silhouette of former US President Trump, covering half of the earth like solar eclipse.Economists said that their annual forecasts have never been shrouded in the shadow of a person like 2024, "Trump constitutes the world's largest danger in 2024."
Economists have always been good at set topics and create concepts.Two years ago, the cover story of the journal described Taiwan as "the most dangerous place on the surface", and it is still cited from time to time; and now it points out Trump's "most dangerous", whether it is in 2024, Trump Bibi Taiwan Strait SeaStill more dangerous?From the report, the answer is yes.
Involved in the Pacific Ocean, Asian society has no direct feelings about the momentum of American elections and Trump next year, but this topic has increasingly occupied the main attention of the American media.The continuously announced polls and situation analysis have been repeatedly displayed. Although Trump's anti -construction, lawsuit, and criminal charges that are facing trying to overthrow the results of the election, it is by no means a joke to seize the White House.Many people are pessimistic that Trump 2.0 will destroy the Bitter Trump 1.0 to the United States; the United States returns isolatedism, and its impact on the world cannot be underestimated.
In contrast, when China focuses on Sino -US relations up and down, and the United States moves nervous by every move, Americans do not pay much attention to China. After all, the United States itself has enough problems and is enough for them to worry.It is said that in November, the Central Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting and the Summit of the Sino -US dollar were held in San Francisco. At that time, American public opinion did not discuss too much heat.
If Trump returns, it is a very realistic problem for Americans.Trump has dominated the Republican primaries, and the polls conducted by the economist and poll "YOUGOV" at the end of November showed that 51%of the respondents believed that Trump performed well than the current president Biden, and believed that worship was worshiped.Only 41%of the performance performance is better.
The New York Times's polls in early November also showed that among the six key swing states, Trump's support in the five states was the lead.To make matters worse, the Democratic Party consulting agency found that in the basic Democratic Party of African, Latin American, Asian, sexual minorities, Z eras, millennials, and single female college graduates, interviewees generally support special support for special support.Trump.In their memory, the US economy, inflation, crime rate, and border security under the rule of Trump are better than now, and the Democratic Party is more extreme than the Republican Party in terms of ideology.
What would he do if Trump returned to the White House?Trump has no concealment, and the practice is also dazzling.
As early as this spring, Trump publicly declared that if he was elected, he would deconstruct the "Deep State" of the United States, including Guoan and Intelligence Department, and will retaliate against political opponents.Trump allies, so -called Maga (Make America Great Again, let the United States be great again) Republicans plan to revive the "F plan" administrative order launched at the end of the ruling of Trump to make up to 50,000 senior civil servants more than 50,000.It is easy to be fired, so that Trump can easily change to his loyalty.
According to US media reports, Maga Republicans are already preparing a loyalty list.The Qian -page policy documents they published include the completion of the border wall, the 10%tariffs imposed by the imported goods, the permanent tax reduction, and the cancellation of the descendants of immigration to enjoy citizenship in the United States.After the experience of the first term, Trump and the team will be more mature and step -by -step to deploy their anti -building operations.
In international policies, it is said that Trump has privately stated that he may also reduce his military aid for Ukraine if he was elected to withdraw from the United States.As for the Taiwan Strait issue, although Trump's relationship with Beijing is tense, he compares mainland China as a desk and Taiwan's "table and pen tip" that shows that Trump, which shows that businessmen, is more likely to use Taiwan.The transaction is dropped.
For Western Liberal Elite, Trump's roll is definitely a nightmare.In addition to damage to the order of American order, Trump will also let China and other ideological opponents "pick up the gun", find evidence to prove the failure of the US democracy, and let the Bayeon government in the Asian countries and strengthen the US international alliance system.Discard the front.
These concerns have a certain reason, and American allies and opponents are carefully evaluating the possibility of Trump 2.0, and even formulate a response plan for this.More countries will also avoid border selection, so as not to fall in passive changes in turbulence.
Analysts believe that China is watching its changes and waiting for the United States to make mistakes. If Trump comes to the United States alliance system to loosen, China will get diplomatic breathing opportunities, but after the previous round of experience, China is estimated that it will not be right.Trump's policies have too high expectations for China.
Economists described Trump's "most dangerous". In fact, the current world risk is everywhere. The issue of "the most dangerous on the surface" Taiwan Strait does not have a fire, and Russia and Ukraine have been fighting.In the turbulent situation, countries may need to maintain a certain force and avoid making mistakes.Who can not make mistakes and be rhythmic by the external situation, not allowed friends or opponents to define their own policies, and concentrate on their own development.
