(Beijing Comprehensive News) Bai Zhongen, Dean of the School of Economics Management, China, estimates that the crown disease epidemic directly causes the Chinese local deficit to exceed 4 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, about S $ 748.7 billion).He suggested that the central government issued special government bonds to supplement this part of the gap and allow local local use to repay the debated accounts of corporate accounts.
Caixin.com reported that Bai Zhongen, a member of the Chinese Economic 50 Forum, made the above view last Thursday (September 21) in the Changan Forum.
In the discussion of the current parties to resolve local debt risks, a focus is whether central assistance will trigger moral risks and form a central pocket (guarantee) expectation.Bai Chongen believes that the epidemic itself is an uncontrollable factor, and fiscal revenue and increases are caused by passively.He said that in order to avoid moral risks, it should be distinguished from the epidemic of deficit or debt increases, and which ones are brought about by the epidemic situation, and which are expenditures from the local expansion of their own interests.
Bai Zhongen estimates that there is no epidemic situation, and the local fiscal revenue and expenditure trend other than the land finance compares it with the actual value, and reduces the income outside the trend value.The calculation results show that the local deficit that directly caused by the epidemic from 2020 to 2022 was 2000,75.8 billion yuan, 988.8 billion yuan, and 10,91 billion yuan, and the total three years exceeded 4.2 trillion yuan.
Bai Zhongen suggested: "First of all the additional holes caused by the epidemic directly, use the central financial resources to make up."
He further said that the current proportion of China's central deficit accounting for the current GDP (GDP) is not high compared with international, and the cost of issuing bond issuance is lower than the local government.Part of the gap, at the same time, "requires local accounts to repay corporate accounts, etc., which may be more helpful for the economy."
Bai Zhongen pointed out that in addition to the local deficit caused by the epidemic, there are still quite a few parts of debt that may have moral risks. It is recommended to reduce the pressure on debt repayment by relaxing the repayment period.
Bai Chongen believes that it is necessary to alleviate local fiscal difficulties and debt risks, and reduce the situation of "central invitations and local payments".For example, in recent years, policies such as school safety, village -to -village salary, rural revitalization, economic development, and pension insurance reform of the higher -level governments have continued to increase local financial burden.
China ’s epidemic prevention and control measures have impacted the economy in the past three years. The downturn in the real estate industry has also led to a decrease in tax and land sales revenue. Fiscal in -duty enhancement has led to great financial pressure on some local governments.
