Although the Chinese government may introduce stimulating measures to boost the weak economy, the economists interviewed by Bloomberg have lowered China's economic growth forecast for the past two years.
According to Bloomberg News on Wednesday (July 26), Bloomberg visited the conclusions obtained by 14 economists surveyed that these economists' prediction median for economic growth in 2023 has been from the previous before.5.5%was repaired to 5.2%.The medium to forecast for the growth rate of GDP (GDP) in 2024 was 4.8%, which was also decreased from the previous 4.9%.
Economists predict that the growth rate of GDP in China in the third quarter of this year was 1.2%month -on -month, a year -on -year increase of 4.6%, which was lower than the 5%year -on -year growth rate of earlier predictions.
Tuuli Koivu, chief economist of the Nordic Bank, said that the Nordic Bank's expected that the Chinese economy will increase by 4%in 2024, far lower than the expected median value."I think the (China Economy) risk is biased down ... This is the new normal we should be used to."
In addition, economists are cautious about China's potential monetary policy this year.Economists interviewed believe that the People's Bank of China may reduce its one -year policy loan interest rate of 10 basis points this quarter, which has increased compared to the five base points predicted before.The People's Bank of China maintains the prediction of 25 basis points in the third quarter of the deposit reserve rate.
After the Chinese residents' Consumption Price Index (CPI) was flat in June, economists interviewed also warned the risk of shrinkage.Economists predict that the average CPI increase is 0.9%this year, which is 1.2%lower than the prediction value obtained from previous surveys.When asked how long it would last, 10 of the 14 economists said it would not be less than four months.
Analysts have divergent for other potential growth promotion factors of this year, including Sino -US relations, whether the government's efforts to boost private enterprise confidence will work.10 of the 14 economists stated that they are expected to improve private enterprise confidence during the year.
In order to boost the economy, Chinese officials issued opinions on promoting the development of the private economy on July 19 and released friendly signals to private enterprises.On Monday (July 24) of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (July 24), it also released signals to further relax the management and control of the property market, stimulate consumption, and resolve local debt risks.However, general analysis believes that Chinese officials may not introduce large -scale stimulus measures.
