Chen Jing: Chinese GDP ＂Bao 5＂ is hung?

After China's second -quarter economic data was released, a number of investment banks have lowered the forecast of the annual economic growth, and the lowest of which has dropped to 5 %.

Citi, Morgan Chase, and French Industrial Bank have predicted the growth rate of China's GDP throughout the year. From the previous 5.5 % to 5 %, Morgan Stanley will significantly reduce the forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 5 %.

This reminds people of the strong economic rebound when China had just walked out of the crown disease epidemic at the beginning of this year. Many institutions optimistic that the economic growth rate of the year could exceed 6%.When the Chinese government set the official growth goal of about 5 % in March, it was also considered too conservative.Unexpectedly, after a quarter, the focus of the market's attention will be "broken 6" from GDP to whether it can "guarantee 5".

Look at the numbers alone, the growth rate of 6.3 % year -on -year GDP is not low, but this is based on the heavy decline of economic prevention and control in the same period last year. It only increased by 0.4 %.More than 7%of prediction.Compared with the first season, the second quarter increased by only 0.8 % month -on -month, and the increase was far less than 2.2 % of the first season.

China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.5 %, slightly higher than about 5 % of the annual goals.If the economic growth throughout the year is to reach the standard, the year -on -year growth rate of GDP in the second half of the year will reach at least 4.5 %.In the third quarter of last year, the economic growth rate bottomed out to 3.9 %, and the fourth quarter also had 2.9 %, which put forward higher economic growth requirements for the economic growth in the second half of this year.Some analysts bluntly stated that the annual GDP "guarantee 5" is difficult.

One of the uncertainty of the growth of GDP in the second half of the year, which stems from various potential risks exposed in the second quarter of economic data, such as the continuous weakening of exports, the decline in the property market, the non -government investment, the weak consumption recovery, the unemployment of youth unemployment, the youth unemploymentThe rate continues to rise, and the risk of local debt is prominent.

Among them, exports and other factors are affected by the external environment, and the prospects are still unclear; the decline in investment is due to the poor corporate confidence, which leads to a decrease in recruitment positions and the growth of residential income.Buy a downturn in the property market.If the enterprise dares not to invest and the people dare not consume, the Chinese economy may fall into a downlink spiral.

In the past two months, many Chinese and foreign experts and scholars have called on officials to vigorously stimulate family consumption, thereby driving the rebound of domestic demand; at the same time, further relaxation of restrictions on house purchase and relieve the liquidity of the property market.Economist Liu Yuanchun also pointed out at the open forum this week that China does not simply rely on policies in the second half of the year, but to solve the problem by a package plan, including the re -positioning of fiscal and monetary policy, the introduction of social policies, strategic industrial policy policiesContinuous implementation, etc.

As early as mid -June, there were rumors that the official would introduce the "major stimulus measures" to boost the economy; but after a month, a package of measures that the market was looking forward to was "only smelling the stairs."The policy of "squeezing toothpaste" in individual fields is not as good as expected, which not only disappoints investors, but also cause people to be tired.

A post on Weibo on Weibo this week is a screenshot of the netizens issued three news reports, showing that the National Development and Reform Commission of China has proposed three times on April 19, June 16 and July 18th.Formulate and introduce the policy of restoring and expanding consumption ", and comment:" Suggest to hurry up. "Some people tease: "If you don't hurry up, this year will be over, and you have to hurry next year."

The expectations of large -scale stimulus policies to fail again and again are another reason for the market's lack of economic confidence in the second half of the year.Morgan Stanley has reduced China's GDP growth from 4.9 % to 4.5 % next year, which means that the official actions in the launch of the launch of stimulus policies will continue to heat up the market's doubts about China's economic prospects.

It is speculated from the official attitude of the official step -by -step camp that when the decision -making layer formulates a stimulus policy, the prevention of "large water drilling" is still used as an important consideration to avoid repeating the "4 trillion" (RMB, 750 billion yuan) stimulus supporting supporting facilities 15 years ago.It leads to the mistakes of many years of overcapacity and housing price bubbles.

On the other hand, although the central government's macro -policy tool box still has enough space, the risk of global economic recession has not faded, and there is no major movement so far.

The carefulness of decision -making levels is not unreasonable, but the urgency of the economic situation should not be underestimated.If the policy is too small, it will not be enough to promote the economy. If the market expects to fail again and again, it must be more cost -effective to boost confidence.At the same time, the global economic and geopolitical situation is still changing rapidly, all testing the determination and ability of the governors.

It is worth noting that on the day of the release of economic data in the second quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission held a seminar on the third private enterprise this month; the official on Wednesday issued opinions on promoting the development of the private economy, and put forward the protection of the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, so that to make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, so that to make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, so as to make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, so that to make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, so that the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs can make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs so as to make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, so that the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs can make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, so that the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs can make the rights and interests of private entrepreneurs.Various ownership economic competition, and encourages private enterprises to issue scientific and technological innovation corporate bonds, listing financing and re -financing.

Whether this series of practices can boost the confidence of liability in private enterprises in the past three years and become the cut -off of economic growth, it still needs market inspection.The current investors have turned their attention to the Politburo Conference held at the end of the month, and once again hoped that the "package measures" will be released again.

After China's GDP rarely lower than the growth goal last year, the official will never allow this situation this year.But how to keep the growth rate of 5 %, and what price to pay for it is still a difficult challenge to face the decision -making level.Looking forward to the Politburo meeting next week, the cloud can be used to see the moon, which is a bright road for economic development in the second half of the year.