Yang Danxu: Can Bayons ＂thaw＂ prophecy be true?

Politico News website broke the news on Monday (May 22) that the new Chinese ambassador Xie Feng will arrive in Washington on Tuesday, local time.This means that the position of ambassadors in the United States has been suspended for several months, and it is finally filled in.

It is necessary to know that since the normalization of Sino -US relations in 1979, in addition to the two months of the Ambassador to the United States in 1995, Li Denghui, who visited the United States in 1995, and Beijing, the Ambassador to the United States, the position of the ambassador in the United States has never been like this year.Essence

In addition to the news of the new ambassador, US President Biden also released a optimistic prophecy on Sino -US relations on Sunday.After participating in the Seventh National Group (G7) summit at Hiroshima, Bayeng said at a press conference that he would soon see that Sino -US relations "thawed".

On the same day he said this, the US ambassador to China Burns revealed in social media that he had just landed in Chengdu.In the process of deteriorating Sino -US relations in recent years, an iconic incident was to close the consulate between the two sides in 2020, and China was closed to the Chief Hall of Chengdu at the time.Is the Chengdu trip to Bernus's Chengdu trip to pave the way for the re -opening consulate, but it is enough to make the outside world imagine.

After the Sino -US relations experienced the shocks of geopolitical incidents such as the Russia -Ukraine War and Pelosi visited Taiwan, the heads of state of the two countries met in Bali last November.This originally warmed up a good head for Sino -US relations. U.S. Secretary of State Brillin also prepared to visit China early February this year. I did not expect that an obedient balloon stirred the matter.Monthly deadlock.

However, after more than three months of low pressure, Chinese and American officials opened frequent interactions in mid -May.From May 10th to 11th, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and the director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, met with the US President's National Security Affairs Assistant in Vienna and began to be described as "frank", "substantial" and "construction" by both parties.Sexual discussion.

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao subsequently met with Bernus in Beijing.Wang Wentao will also go to the United States this week to participate in the Minister of Trade of the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization and meet with US Minister of Commerce Raymond Doro and trade representative Daiqi.

Will this series of interactions be a spiral slide for Sino -US relations?Can Biden's "thaw" prophecy be true?

After the balloon incident, Beijing's attitude towards Sino -US relations has changed significantly -that is, it is determined that the United States can curb the fact that the United States is not changing against China, and it will no longer improve Sino -US relations through technical negotiations and mutual accommodation.with hope.

After Biden released an optimistic signal, Beijing not only did not respond positively, but also splashed a pot of cold water.The Chinese official Sunday evening issued a ban to American chip company Micron, and took the initiative to upgrade the scientific and technological war.At the regular press conference the next day, the Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning also asked toughly: "If the United States says that they want to communicate, they will use whatever means to curb China and impose sanctions on Chinese officials, institutions and enterprises.Where is it? "

From the perspective of Beijing, we communicate and target them. Today's dialogue and tomorrow's sanctions are unacceptable. In the past few years, this interaction method adopted by the United States to China has also allowed Beijing to identify Washington in improving Sino -US relations in improving Sino -US relations.Without sincerity, it is the heart to contain all aspects of China.Beijing thus put on the attitude of "fighting back, scolding and returning".

, the United States' attitude towards China has been fine -tuned recently. It can be seen from the just -concluded Seventh -way Group (G7) summit.The joint communiqué of G7 points to Beijing on issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and economic coercion, but the correctional door and the targetedness of China are lower than that of external expectations.The bulletin also revealed that the G7 countries have reorganized the boundary of the China policy. For example, the communiqué clearly states that it is hoped to maintain the relationship between "constructive and stable" with China, emphasizing unintentional decoupled with China, but proposed to be gentle and gentle"Risk -going".

This also echoed a press conference in Hiroshima in Hiroshima, revealing the changes in the policy of China's policy.He said that in the past two and a half years, the G7 countries have become consistent on some key issues. This has not been seen a few years ago, "It is not a simplified or single -dimensional policy. It is a multi -dimensional complex policy, which is used for it.Establish complex relationships with a very important country. "

The high economy of China and the United States, the complex and multi -dimensional relationship between the two countries, which means that Washington is difficult to simply use decoupling and curbing Beijing, and it is impossible to call on the entire Western world to deal with China.It is difficult to rely on the United States, self -reliance, or counter -to -teeth to counter the United States.If the two sides are caught in this zero -sum game, they will eventually lose both.

This is reality and the last word.I believe it is also because of this clearly that China and the United States have tentatively tentative each other's boundaries in the state of hostility in the past few months, adjust their strategies, and maintain "not broken" in the fight.The two countries have begun to interact today, showing that the two sides intend to allow bilateral relations to achieve new intermittent balance.However, the so -called frozen three feet is not a day of cold. The differences in values of China and the United States and the contradictions between national interests are probably frozen three feet. How fast can it really thaw?The intermittent balance they can achieve is unknown.