The Chinese government's growth goal for this year's economic setting is lower than external expectations.The analysis believes that the official goal is still in a reasonable interval, and it also leaves room for response to the impact.However, if economic goals continue to fall, to a certain extent, it will affect plans to achieve the long -distance viewing goal in 2035.
Chinese Government Work reports are reported that this year's GDP this year (GDP)The growth target is about 5 %.This is lower than the growth target of about 5.5 % last year. If the outbreak of the crown disease is excluded and the target of the economic growth rate has not been set, it is also the lowest goal since 1991.With the peak of the first wave of crown disease epidemic in China after the release of China, many major economic indicators have rebounded strongly this year.Many international investment banks and economic divisions will increase the expectations of China's economic growth to 5 % to 5.5 % throughout the year, and even once it is reported that the government will set the goal of 6 % to boost investors and consumers.confidence.
Xie Dongming, director of the research director of the Greater China of Singapore, Xie Dongming in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post. The target of about 5 % is still in the reasonable range of the market expectations, but it is a lower limit.This should be related to the failure of the economic growth last year, which has caused the official attitude to be more cautious.
The impact of factors such as the epidemic and control and the downturn in the property market. China only increased by 3 % last year, far lower than the official goal.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, pointed out in an interview that the Chinese economy is still in the stage of recuperating and rearing in the first year after the epidemic.It hinders the new government's pursuit of better results.Conversely, if the goal is too high, and the deviation of sudden risks, as last year, will make the government's work passive, and it is not conducive to stabilizing market confidence.
Government work report pointed out that China's current development faces many difficulties in difficulties, including increasing uncertainty from external environment, high global inflation, weakening of world economic and trade growth momentum, continuous rising externally, insufficient domestic demand, folk peopleInvestment and private enterprises are unstable.
Tao Chuan and Shao Xiang analyzed by macro analysts of Soochow Securities analyzed that "global inflation is still in a high level" means that the impact of the tightening of the central bank's monetary policy in developed countries still exists.Continuously increased, "the continuous rise in curbing" means geopolitical risks, especially the decoupling in the field of Sino -US technology is likely to accelerate.
The Chinese government plans to increase the number of new urban employment from 11 million people to 12 million this year, while maintaining the unemployment rate of urban investigation at about 5.5 %.
Xie Dongming believes that although the official GDP target is low, if the number of new employment can increase the goal of 1 million, it will help to drive domestic demand and boost market confidence.
The market is generally expected that without major risks, the growth rate of China's economy will be 5 % this year.However, Wang Jun also warned that if economic goals continue to fall, to a certain extent, it will affect the plan to achieve the long -view target of 2035.
Wang Jun pointed out that China will basically achieve socialist modernization in 2035, and the average annual growth rate must be maintained at more than 5 %."Considering that the situation in the past few years is special, there is still a possibility of stability to speed up the economy in the future. You don't need to care about it for a while. But if the economic growth target is lower than 5 % for a long time, the space for achieving the goal will become smaller and smaller."
