The National Development Research Institute of Peking University is estimated based on the big data model. As of January 11 this year, the cumulative accumulation of crown disease infection in China was about 64%, and the number of infections accumulated about 900 million.

Economic Observation Network reported on Friday (13th) that the research group composed of Ma Jingjing and others of Peking University National Development Research Institute recently released a report on the infection of the crown disease epidemic to analyze the characteristics of the transmission of this round of epidemic and people infection of people infection.Symptoms, crowds and regional differences.

The report shows that about 13 days after the "New Ten Articles" were introduced, that is, on December 20 last year, there was a peak in many places across the country, and in the end of December, the infections in various places had passed the peak.As of January 11, the national infection rate accumulated about 64%, and the number of infected people accumulated about 900 million.

In terms of regional infection, the report shows that the top three provinces with the highest cumulative infection rate in this round belong to the western region.The third place in Qinghai Province is about 80%.

Ma Jingjing, an associate professor of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University in the reporting group, said that the number of outbreaks in the northern Shanghai -Shanghai -Shanghai -Shanghai -Shanghai -Shanghai -Shanghai -Shanghai -Guangzhou epidemic is very large, but the data in the western region may be higher.

Ma Jingjing explained that these infection rate is the model estimation data, which is calculated based on the search quantity of the relevant symptoms on the infected crown disease on the network platform.In simple terms, searching for symptoms such as "fever" and "cough" on the Internet has risen, which means that the infection rate has increased.

The original data of the infection rate is mainly provided by the pulse data. The company has captured the search data on the symptoms of crown disease on many domestic network platforms. Based on these data, members of the research team calculatedInfection rates of nationwide, provinces, and cities.

Ma Jingjing said that it is impossible to obtain completely accurate data. Through such big data methods, it can quickly and comprehensively estimate the infection rate of various places, and the cost is low.Although this kind of method will be affected by some random factors or inherent habits that affect the search, and there is a certain gap with reality, during the outbreak, quickly and comprehensively understand the general infection rate of all parts of the country.Important role.

In addition to the big data method, the research team also used a questionnaire survey method to conduct a questionnaire survey across the country during the peak of the epidemic, and obtained a total of 11,443 valid samples.

Ma Jingjing explained, "Big data methods can quickly estimate the daily infection rate, but if you want to serve medical resources allocation, you also need to understand the possibility of various symptoms, medication rates, and medication rates after infection.The medical treatment rate, hospitalization rate, etc. can be achieved through questionnaires. "

She believes that the combination of big data and questionnaire surveys small data can be very fast and convenient to estimate how many people in each place are about how many people every day every day.There are needs to buy medicines, clinics, and hospitalization. Relevant government agencies can also use this method. When the epidemic is outbreak, it can predict the occurrence of areas and the scale of infection.

In addition, the report shows that most of the interviewed infected people have one or several symptoms such as fever, cough, sputum, nasal congestion, soreness, smell, and diarrhea.The most common symptoms after infection are fever. 82%of the infected people interviewed have fever symptoms, of which the maximum body temperature is 38.5 degrees or more.%.

At the time of turning the yin, about half of the infected people in the country's samples disappear and turn overcast for 5-7 days after infection, and about 20%of infected people take longer.

In terms of subjective feelings, 76%of the respondents believe that the degree of discomfort after infection is higher than the worst influenza or cold.

For the significance of the survey of infection symptoms, Ma Jingjing believes that many people think that most of the infection is asymptomatic before this epidemic, but after one time, it is found that it is actually uncomfortable.Speaking of symptoms.