Early

Point

Ji Yan Spring and Autumn

The impact of the epidemic spread. These days, the streets of Beijing are very deserted. Public places such as shopping malls and theaters are also rare, and there is a small scene.

On the Internet, some netizens are still exposed to various "Yang" information, complaining that officials should not relax and control.Some people think that people who dare to go to the street without liberalization are curled up at home, and some people start to miss the days when they are strictly controlled, and even call on the government to restore strict control measures.

But for the official, letting go is irrelevant. How to get out of the three -year outbreak as soon as possible and let the economic and social return to the development track is a challenge that must be faced.

From December 15th to 16th, the annual Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing.This is the first Central Economic Work Conference after the 20th New Leadership of the Communist Party of China.The outside world can observe the adjustment and change of China's economic policy next year, and it can also be seen that some of the new leadership governance styles can be seen.

In large aspects, such as "stable characters, steady progress", "positive fiscal policies and stable monetary policy", "do not fry the house", etc.The method is basically the same, and these tones have not changed significantly.

This year's meeting is impressive, including "vigorously boosting market confidence", "focusing on expanding domestic demand", and taking "two unshakables" as improving social psychological expectations and boosting confidence in development confidence.etc.These are very different from the past few years, making people shine.

Since 2020, affected by domestic and foreign factors such as strict control of epidemic conditions, the Chinese economy has gradually declined, and market entities, mainly private enterprises, have closed down, and market confidence has been seriously frustrated.If this trend cannot be fundamentally changed, the economy and people's livelihood will fall below the bottom line, and the development will be reduced to empty talk.

How to boost market confidence?The Central Economic Work Conference has taken the support of the development of the private economy as a "start" for boosting market confidence, which is relatively rare in recent years.

The mainstream official media People's Daily reported on December 18 that Chinese officials said at the Central Economic Working Conference: "I have always supported private enterprises, and they also worked in places where the private economy was developed." It is reported that Chinese officials released the "Nine Talents Nine" and virtuous goodness as early as the county party secretary of Zhengding County, Hebei; in Fujian, Jinjiang's experience has a profound experience;In 2018, he hosted a symposium on private enterprises. China's official emphasizing: "Private enterprises and private entrepreneurs are ourselves."

The Bulletin of the Central Economic Work Conference further proposed: "For the incorrect discussion of whether we insist on" two unwavering "in society, we must clearly attitude and unambiguous."The requirements for the general treatment of state -owned enterprises and private enterprises have fallen. From the perspective of policies and public opinion, the development of private economy and private enterprises will be encouraged to protect the property rights and entrepreneur rights of private enterprises in accordance with the law. Leading cadres at all levels should solve problems and do practical things for private entrepreneurs."

In the past three years, the prevention and control epidemic is the main task of governments at all levels in China. A large number of administrative and economic resources consume on "dynamic clearing". Officials naturally cannot take care of the life and death of private enterprises.Coupled with the frequent rotation of officials, many new officials ignore the old accounts, and the back pressure has a large amount of problems, which seriously affects the normal operation of entrepreneurs and social and economic vitality.

Today, China has begun to enter a new stage of liberalization of epidemic control, and the development of economy has become the first priority for officials at all levels.High -level requirements are required to start with the development of the private economy, boost market confidence, and help the Chinese economy to restore vitality as soon as possible.

After the Central Economic Work Conference, some senior officials and scholars in the financial field have expressed optimism for China's economic growth next year.

On December 17, at the 2022-2023 China Economic Annual Conference held by the China International Economic Exchange Center, Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Finance and Economics Committee, said that the world economic growth may decline significantly next year, and ChinaThe economy may be pushed back, thereby forming a trajectory that runs independently upward.

The analysis of Korean shows, there are three main positive factors in China's overall recovery: first, optimizing the prevention and control measures of the epidemic, which will have a significant positive impact on the development of economic recovery;The base effect, this year's economic growth is lower than expected, objectively leads to relatively low economic base this year. As long as the economy will return to normal growth next year, from a statistical point of view, the data will be relatively high.

Liu Guoqiang, vice president of the People's Bank of China, said that real estate has not been compared with other industries on residents' lives and property, macroeconomic cycle and stable industrial chain, and the impact of government finance and financial markets.Real estate is a pillar industry. The pillars cannot be swinging sharply, and it is necessary to maintain overall stability.The macro -control in the early stage has resolved the risk of a sharp rise. Now the plunge has become the main contradiction and urgently needs to stop falling.

For China's economic growth next year, the Economic Blue Book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences last week predicts that China's economic growth rate in 2023 will be about 5.1%.Wei Jianguo, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, believes that China's economic growth will reach 8%next year.

On December 17, Andrew Tilton, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs Asia -Pacific, said at the "Finance and Economics 2023" that Goldman Sachs recently adjusted its prediction of the Chinese economy to: 2022 increased by 2.6%.With the reappearance of the Chinese economy, it is expected that the growth of China's economy will be doubled in 2023, and many industries, including the consumer and service industries, will be improved.

Although China still needs a period of time to get out of the impact of the epidemic, but next year, the Chinese economy is returning to the right track or even full of blood, which should be a high probability event.