Bloomberg Economic Research believes that with the energy shock caused by the Russian and Ukraine War, the world economy is facing one of the worst years in 30 years.The Chinese economy will stand up.
According to Bloomberg, in a new analysis report, economist Scott Johnson predicts that the global economy will only increase by 2.4%in 2023, lower than 3.2%in 2022. This will be except for exceptIn addition to the two crises in 2009 and 2020, the minimum growth rate since 1993.
However, the overall number may cover up the fate of great different countries in various countries: the euro zone started in 2023, and the United States ended with recession. In contrast, China may achieve more than 5%of growth.Thanks to the speed of exiting the dynamic clearing zero, it is faster than expected, coupled with support for the real estate industry.
Johnson wrote that one year after the Fed and other major central banks have introduced monetary policy into restrictive areas, the paths of various central banks may be seen in 2023.
The report wrote: "In the United States, because the increase in wage will keep the inflation rate above the target level, we believe that the Federal Reserve is moving towards a 5%terminal interest rate and will allow this interest rate level to always keep the level of interest rates.It lasts until the first quarter of 2024. At the same time, in the euro zone, the faster decrease in inflation rate will mean a decrease in terminal interest rates and may be reduced at the end of 2023. "
In China, the Central Bank of ChinaIt will face the problem of supporting economic recovery and worrying about the softness of the renminbi.The result will be a limited interest rate cut.
