The Oxford Economic Research Institute believes that the dynamic clearance process is longer than expected to reduce the growth rate of China's GDP (GDP) next year by nearly 1 percentage point.
According to BloomberIn the first half of the year, it is expected that the recovery of private consumption will be delayed, which may cause the agency to decrease by a 4.2%prediction of the agency in 2023. It is almost a whole percentage point.
The report wrote: "Our short -term macroeconomic outlook is obviously biased down." It refers to the surge in crown disease infection in recent weeks that have led to the negative impact of blockade measures from all over China on the economy.The agency is currently expected to make a comprehensive restart in the second half of next year.
China announced earlier this month to optimize the prevention and control measures of the epidemic to ignite the hope of people. It is expected that the government will further adopt action to reduce the economic losses caused by the prevention and control of the epidemic, and then gradually re -open next year.However, with the surge in recent cases, many places have re -adopted the previous methods, and major cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou have fallen into stagnation, which has damaged people's optimistic emotions for re -open.
Louisu said that the recent epidemic has strengthened the uncertainty of the Oxford Institute of Economic Research on China's economic growth.She said that if the economic affected is similar to that in Shanghai's implementation in the second quarter of this year, the agency's prediction of China's economic growth in 2022 will be reduced from the current 3.1%to 2%to 2.5%.
