Fifteen months ago, the economist of Nomura Holdings compared the measures of China's rectification of the property market to the former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Walke in 1980s that caused economic recession to inflation and cooling measures.However, now they believe that China's "Walker Moment" is finally over, but there is still a distance in the recovery of the real estate market.
According to Bloomberg, Nomura Holding economist Lu Ting said in an interview in Hong Kong that the Chinese policy has come to the turning point, but it may not marked that the industry has bottomed out.
The Chinese government has released 16 rescue measures to boost the real estate market this month, marking a sharp turn of real estate regulation policies in Beijing in the past year, and promoting the Bloomberg Chinese real estate stock index this month increased by 40%.
Lu Ting said that although the rescue measures can make the dilemma developing a sigh of relief, there is a lack of measures to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate the demand for home purchase.In addition, at least before March next year, the possibility of a comprehensive economic restart is not high, which will put pressure on the real estate industry when the government optimizes the dynamic zero -epidemic prevention policy.
Lu Ting said: "The financing restrictions have been basically canceled, but it is unclear whether it will introduce large -scale demand stimulus measures."Analysts are consistent.However, when he warned the real estate market risk in August 2021, only a few analysts foresee how serious the landslide of the property market would be.He said that unlike the previous economic downturn, when the President Xi Jinping managed to solve the problem of decline in fertility rate and the expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor, the decision makers were determined to control the development of the property market.
Although cracks have appeared in the real estate market, investors largely underestimate the depth of crisis.Since then, most of the credit debt spreads issued by developers have doubled.
