Early
Double Festive
Mainland China and the Hong Kong stock market swept the sorrows of the clouds since the closing of the Communist Party of China on Monday this Monday. On Tuesday (November 1), a strong rebound began.How to get out of "clear zero".
Hong Yan, a partner and chief economist of Sirui Group, published a tweet in English on Tuesday, claiming that China has set up a committee for preparations for the "re -open".The crown disease epidemic data of the place to evaluate the possibility of re -opening, the goal is to be open in March next year.
It was rumored that the day was spread quickly. The Chinese assets rose in the afternoon. Not only did the RMB strong, but the Lukang stock market also sharply reversed the decline.Among them, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose nearly 8 %, the largest single -day increase since April; the CSI 300 Index also closed up 3.6 %, the largest increase since March.
Investors continue to bet on China on Wednesday, China may relax the epidemic prevention. The Lukang stock market continues to rise on the same day.
Although the Lukang stock market has permeated optimism in the past two days and has expectations for opening up, many investors have maintained their vigilance and judging that the rebound may be just a flash.In response to rumors, when Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian asked on Tuesday, he only said he did not understand the situation.
The relevant sports news from this week is also inconsistent with the expectations caused by rumors.Among them, the World Athletics Federation announced on Monday that affected by the epidemic, the World Track and Field Competition, which was originally scheduled to be held in Guangzhou in May next year, will be postponed to the second quarter of 2025.Earlier, the World Indoor Track and Field Championship, which was originally scheduled to be held in Nanjing next March, was also announced to be postponed to March 2025.
In fact, the Chinese official media have issued a article for three consecutive days to defend the clear zero on the eve of the 20th. Chinese officials have also affirmed that in the 20th National Congress report, "insisting on dynamic dynamics and shaking."These unknown statements indicate that China's strict response to preventing epidemic prevention will continue for a period of time.
After the 20th National Congress, the number of new cases of crown diseases in China has continued to rise, and there have been increasing clear zero efforts in various places.Urban measures, the investors want to see the epidemic prevention and the back.
Nomura survey found that more than 230 million people in China are currently controlled by epidemic prevention measures.As of October 27, about 31 cities have adopted a certain form of sealing, which has the scope of affected one -sixth of the Chinese population, accounting for nearly 25 % of the GDP.
The Shanghai Disneyland was only visited by a crown disease infected, and it suddenly announced the closure on Monday, which caused 20,000 tourists to be trapped in the park.Chen Jining, secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, who only took a new Shanghai Municipal Party Committee last Friday, emphasized that "improving political standing and insisting on dynamic clearing zero", showing that the Qing zero -pair is still a political task that is more priority than steady growth.
Foxconn's world's largest Apple mobile phone factory in Zhengzhou, Henan has also recently broke out. The chaotic management led to employees to return to their hometowns during the "escape", which seriously affected production. It is expected that iPhone shipments will be reduced by 30 % in November.
Nevertheless, the local government still announced on Wednesday that the factory where the factory is located has implemented seven days of static management in the Zhengzhou Airport Area, showing that even if it further restricts the interference of the factory freight, the official will not hesitate to implement clearing zero with greater economic and social costs.
China's third quarter GDP increased by 3.9 % year -on -year, the growth rate was higher than market expectations, and the macro economy seemed to improve.However, the manufacturing and service industry procurement manager index (PMI) released in October announced on Monday fell to 49.2 and 48.7, respectively, and both fell into atrophy, reflecting the continued disturbing economic activities.
Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang evaluated at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Tuesday that the Chinese economy twisted the decline in a timely manner this year, showing a stabilizing upward in the third quarter.He also said that it will continue to promote the implementation of various policies and measures in the stability of the economy, maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, and strive to achieve better results.
At present, the analysts have divergent when Qing Ling will sue.Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that the border will only be opened in the first half of next year in China, and some people will evaluate the second half of the year or even the first quarter of 2024.Mai Pu Si, a fund manager, known as the "Emerging Market Godfather", may be optimistic that optimistic expectations may be before the end of this year.
From the perspective of promoting recovery and growth, China currently has too many incentives to end clear zero. Whether it is to make a big economic cake to better promote common prosperity, or accumulate more resources to fight against the West.
These strong incentives to the outside world have not driven China to accelerate the formulation of blueprints to come out of the clear zero.Unless the official discussion in the Qing Dynasty after the official launch, or the launch of more specific measures to point to the relaxation of epidemic prevention, it is difficult to expect the clearance in the short term.
