During the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang evaluated the current Chinese economy is stabilizing and releasing positive signals to the market.However, a series of major economic indicators that were released on Tuesday (October 18) were postponed, which was postponed. The reasons for the extension were unknown, causing some investors to worry about China's growth that may continue to slow down.
The analysis of scholars interviewees has been performed in the second quarter of the Chinese economy. At present, the forecast of securities firms generally reflects that the data in the third quarter has not become worse, and the macroeconomic stability is normal.Scholars also believe that delay release is obviously not because the latest data is "terrible", but more likely to be because the leaders of relevant ministries and commissions participate in the 20th National Congress and have time to approve before the meeting.
As the Chinese economy continued to be impacted by the Qing zero policy and the housing market crisis, Li Keqiang said on Monday (October 17) to participate in the discussion of the 20th Gansu delegation.A package policy maintains economic operation in a reasonable range.
Li Keqiang also said that it is necessary to unswervingly promote reform and opening up, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, create a fair competitive market environment, promote high -level opening up, and ensure and improve people's livelihood in development.
Chinese financial institutions and state -owned enterprises have also increased their efforts to stabilize the turbulent monetary stock market this week.Among them, the People's Bank of China was expected to conduct 500 billion yuan (S $ 98.6 billion) and the one -year interim borrowing convenience (MLF) operation on Monday to offset the peak of tax payment this month, local government bond issuance, etc.The impact of liquidity and maintaining the market stable.
However, the National Statistics Bureau of China was rarely postponed on Monday and the third quarter of the domestic GDP (GDP) data that was originally scheduled to be released at 10 am the next day, and did not explain the reason.Even during the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics released GDP data as scheduled.Other major monthly economic indicators, including industrial added value, energy production, fixed asset investment, real estate investment and sales, total retail and house prices, etc., have also been released.The China Customs General Administration has not yet been released, and the monthly trade data originally scheduled to be released on October 14.
Zhang Jiantai, chief foreign exchange strategist of Asian Bank of Ruisui Bank, said that the lack of explanation for this unusual postponement may lead to investor anxiety.Ye Junrong, a strategist of IG market, also said that the release of this postponement may stimulate the outside world that the data has been concerned about poor data performance, but the market is currently used to weak growth.
Chen Bo, dean of Wuhan Optics Valley Free Trade Research Institute, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post. The release of macro -data postponed was mainly due to the participation of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and Commission, and it was time to approve before the meeting.
He said: "We haven't seen the data now, the reason is not because it is not good ... The data (already) in the previous (second quarter) is difficult to see, and it is normal to regain it before."
Chen Bo evaluated that the latest macro data cannot be "terrible". The follow -up research and estimated consensus related to securities firms are: "The Chinese economy is definitely worse than the normal situation, but the situation of the month -on -month is not worse."EssenceChen Bo also pointed out that the market is currently more questionable. In fact, whether China can promote reform and opening up and build a market -oriented economy, it is also compatible with common wealth, clearing zero, and increasing internal circulation.Possible contradictions.
Chen Bo expects that the internal cycle may currently replace the external cycle more clearly in two aspects, that is, the fields of national security and high -tech, because countries around the world must be firmly controlled in their own hands.In the United States, the United States has continued to accelerate the decoupling of China in the high -tech field.
However, Chen Bo believes that China will not decrease with external cooperation with other aspects in traditional manufacturing, green energy, etc. "China will show the situation of 'local heat and local cold' in China."
