"Centers for economic construction, development is the first first one is the first first oneOut of service. "
This is the two words that the Chinese are extremely familiar with.However, some analysts believe that with the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, this expression may gradually enter history.
Bloomberg News issued a document on Wednesday (October 12) that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, may give up the expression of "development as the first priority" in the 20th report and "overall development and security"Come instead to consolidate China's historic policy transformation.
In the third historical resolution passed by the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee last year, the "coordinated development and security" appeared three times, the first time in more than 40 years.This resolution on the major achievements and historical experience of the party's century -old struggle and the resolutions of several historical issues in 1945 and the resolution of a number of historical issues on the party since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1981 are the most important and authoritative since the CCP's self -established party.One of the key historical documents.
In the third historical resolution, there is no wording similar to "development is the first priority".Bloomberg believes that this is a signal that Chinese leaders may give up this expression.
How to enter the stage "overall development and security"
Xi Jinping proposed a security and development in 2014.In April 2014, he presided over the first meeting of the Central National Security Council: "Development is the foundation of security, and security is the condition of development."
Since 2020, the crown disease epidemic is in the worldFor outbreak, the former US President Trump was spent the last year of his term. The situation in China and the United States continued to upgrade due to a series of issues such as trade war and crown disease traceability.The frequency of use has increased significantly, and it is also written into multiple regulations.
According to the statistics of Bloomberg, during the nine years from 2012 to 2021, Xi Jinping mentioned the number of "economic development" in each year's speech, which was significantly more "national security" before 2019.But since then, the frequency of the "national security" vocabulary has achieved overtaking.The number of "overall development and security" has been increasing.
However, in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, Xi Jinping still used previous expressions, emphasizing that "it is necessary to unswervingly develop the development of the party's first priority."After all, this is what the Chinese Communist Party leaders have been held every five years since the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2002, and it is also a established policy that China has always been in China.
Bloomberg analysis article pointed out that if the expression changes, it means that Chinese leadership officially increases the importance of national security to a new height.
HOWARD WANG, a Chinese policy expert at RAND CORPORATION (RAND Corporation), said that in such an important speech in the 20th National Congress, if the security and development are in the same position, it is equal to the same position.The consensus of the CCP's leadership on this decision will be displayed.Compared with five years ago, the elites in the party at that time may not be agreed to change the policy.
Development is no longer the first priority?
Economists predict that since setting the annual GDP growth goals in the early 1990s, China's GDP growth will be greatly lagging behind this year, 5.5%of the annual goal, and it seems out of reach.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 11) evaluated that dynamic clearances have caused a major blow to the Chinese economy and lowered their expectations for the growth of the Chinese economy this year and the next year. This year, it is expected to increase by only 3.2 %.
At the same time, the Chinese government is also down to the importance of economic growth.Xi Jinping said in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of my country in 2017: "The main contradictions in our society have transformed into a contradiction between the people's growing good life needs and imbalanced and inadequate development."
This is interpreted To emphasize the quality of growth rather than speed.The historical resolutions passed last year also mentioned that "the hero cannot be simply linked to heroes with total product growth rate."
With the gradual disappearance of population dividends and the increasing demand for public environment, the Chinese economy has shifted from a high -speed growth stage to a new normal in the high -quality development stage. The traditional extensive development model is unsustainable.
The blind pursuit of economic growth has indeed caused damage to China's development.The political performance assessment mechanism of Chinese local governments has been closely linked to GDP growth."Only GDP Political Performance" has caused local governments to compare with each other. When maximizing GDP, tax and investment promotion, the negative role of repeated construction, dividing the market, and regardless of long -term investment returns is endless.
For more than 40 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has indeed been unable to maintain a double -digit or nearly 10%high -speed growth as from 2004 to 2010.Therefore, the target of diluting economic growth meets the national conditions to a certain extent.
However, some critics are concerned that although the government emphasizes the balance of security and development, from the current policy, it seems that the importance of national security has been promoted to the first place, even if this is sacrificing the economy to sacrifice the economyGrowth as a price.
Which side of the security and development clock is there?
Wang Hao believes that Beijing's recent policies, such as tightening the supervision of large -scale enterprises and adhering to the "clear zero" epidemic policy, all show that they are willing to bear economic costs to ensure security, especially "the Chinese Communist Party of ChinaPolitical security of leadership. "
At the moment when countries are gradually opening the border, China still implements a strict zero -zero policy.Whether it is a manufacturing center like Shenzhen or a financial center like Shanghai, the epidemic prevention policy must be implemented.The cities that the epidemic continued to outbreak continued to damage the economic activities of various industries.The rigorous restrictions on the flow of personnel have led the Chinese people's consumption to reduce all aspects.
Beijing deepen the supervision of technology giants for about two years.In the last quarter, Tencent and Alibaba reported their first decline in revenue, Tencent's profits fell by 50%, and Alibaba's net income fell by half.The large factory layoffs increased the employment crisis.
Not only that, foreign investors are also withdrawing funds out of China.In the second half of this year, Tencent's investment with a value of more than $ 7 billion was withdrawn.Japanese SoftBank withdrew a lot of cash from Alibaba, and Buffett also reduced BYD's shares.In this case, Chinese listed companies still need to face the US government's blow.
Larry Hu, director of the Ministry of Economic Affairs of McGust Securities, said that for the financial market, the most important thing is whether the Chinese leadership will achieve a new balance between security and development, and as wellHow to achieve this balance."Now the GDP growth and corporate confidence have fallen sharply. The question is whether the pendulum will return to the direction of development."
A series of policies show that Beijing seems to be unwilling to make compromises in security. Even if the economy is hurting the economy, the policy is continuing to implement it. When coordinating development and securityI know.
What will happen in the future?
There are also some analysts that Chinese leaders may retain the "development is the first priority", but it will redefine to emphasize safetyQuestion.
Yeling Tan, a professor of political science at Oregon University, believes that Beijing may emphasize that "reducing China's dependence on the external environment and paying more attention to solving domestic inequality.
Tan Yeling also said that if the expression of the 20th National Congress of the CPC has changed, as far as bureaucracy is concerned, future security agencies may have more power in economic decisions, which will make local officials more reluctant to bear risks.
The 20th National Congress is about to be held. The Chinese leader is breaking the convention and seeking the third term. It may be more than just the way of expression./P>
