Chinas official September manufacturing PMI reaches 50.1% to return to the expan

China's official Friday (September 30) announced that the China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in September was 50.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.Return to the expansion range, showing that the economic trend is steady.However, the September Caixin PMI, which was announced on the same day, was 48.1, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from August, which was the same as May.

According to the website of the China Logistics and Procurement Federation, the September PMI report released by the Federation and the China National Bureau of Statistics and the China National Bureau of Statistics shows that the market supply and demand has rebounded.The effect of the market subject shows stable employment.However, there are still many factors that are currently unstable and uncertainty, and in the fourth quarter, it still needs to further consolidate the stability and recovery momentum.

The report pointed out that with the continuous advancement of China's stable economic policy, the manufacturing industry remained recovery in September, and the end of supply and demand remained recovered, and basically developed.The production index and procurement index were 51.5%and 50.2%, respectively, an increase of 1.7 and 1 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the production and operation activities of enterprises became active.The new order index was 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and increased for two consecutive months, showing that market demand has stabilized and rebounded.

The basic raw material industry has recovered rapidly in September. The PMI of the basic raw material industry was 50.6%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to the expansion range after 3 consecutive months.

The PMI of large enterprises was 51.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and increased for 2 consecutive months.The rapid increase in supply and demand has played a better support for the economy.The PMI of the medium -sized enterprise was 49.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and it also increased for two consecutive months. The production index and the new order index were 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing that medium -sized enterprises have stabilized operation and improved supply and demand.The PMI of small enterprises was 48.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The production index and the new order index were closer to 1 percentage point from the previous month. The operation of small enterprises also improved.

Driven by the continuous release of the economic trend and the continuous release of employment policy for employment insurance, the employment situation in China has remained stable. The employee index is 49%2 months rose.In the third quarter, the average value of employees was 48.8%, an increase of 1 percentage point from 47.8%in the second quarter.

The report pointed out that in general, the economic recovery momentum has been maintained since the third quarter. At the end of the quarter, the recovery is more obvious, but the uncertain unstable factors still need to pay attention.

The first is to expand the demand.Although the new order index has been rebounded for 2 consecutive months, the September index is still below 50%, which is lower than the production index during the same period, indicating that the demand side recovery is weaker than the supply side.

The second is to stabilize foreign trade.Due to the tightening of US monetary policy and increased pressure on the international economy, China's foreign trade growth rate in September also has a downward trend.The new export order index was 47%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.At the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to the impact of the current exchange rate changes on enterprises. Enterprise surveys show that the proportion of manufacturing companies that reflect the fluctuation of RMB exchange rates are 12.1%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, the highest level since 2021.

Third is to stabilize expectations.The expected index of production and operation activities in September was 53.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and increased for 2 consecutive months.However, from the average quarterly value, the average expected index of production and operation activities in the first, second and third quarters was 57.3%, 54.1%, and 52.6%, respectively, which not only continued to decline, but also fluctuated large, showing that the company's expectations for the market market became cautious.

The September manufacturing PMI, which was announced on the same day, was 48.1, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from August, which was the same as May.The Caixin Index tracks small and medium -sized private and export -oriented enterprises, while the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China is mainly large state -owned enterprises.