Ning Jizhen, currently the deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, pointed out at the Global Wealth Management Forum 2022 Summit that there are five uncertainty in the current international and domestic environment. China should be determined by definition.The impact of policies and measures for hedging uncertainties, "strive to achieve the best results."
When the Chinese economy entered the last quarter of this year, Ning Jizhen, former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, called on macro policies to "actively act" to expand demand and make up for the lack of social needs through fiscal and monetary policy.The analysis predicts that under the premise that the epidemic prevention measures do not increase, the macro policy force in the last quarter is expected to drive the year's economic growth by 4 %.
Ning Jizhen, currently the deputy director of the Economic Commission of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, pointed out at the 2022 Autumn Summit of the Global Wealth Management Forum on Saturday (September 24) that there are currently five uncertainty in the international and domestic environment. China should use certainty.The impact of policies and measures for hedging uncertainties, "strive to achieve the best results."
Ning Jizhen explained further that these five uncertainty refers to uncertainty in global economic trends under the epidemic of crown disease; uncertainty in global inflation, especially developed economies;Uncertainty; uncertainty in the price of commodities such as grain, energy, and minerals; and uncertainty in demand recovery and supply guarantee.
He suggested that five certain measures to hedge related effects, including guiding market expectations, relying on market entities such as enterprises to implement inverse cycle investment operations, open up network communications, biomedicine and other new growth areas.
Among them, Ning Jizhen specifically mentioned that it is necessary to increase policy efforts and implement counter -cyclical adjustment.He said that the current periodic contradictions, structural contradictions, and institutional contradictions are intertwined with each other, and the periodic issues caused by the continuous economic downturn, as well as the amplification effect of the epidemic hindering growth, becomes prominent contradictions.
For this reason, macro policies should actively actively act as they expand demand, and effectively make up for the lack of social needs through fiscal and monetary policy.It is necessary to further implement a series of policies and measures introduced this year, compact local government responsibilities, and promote economic operations to return to normal track as soon as possible.
Ning Jizhen emphasized that for places, it is very important to deal with the relationship between epidemic prevention and growth. It is necessary to make every effort to restore the huge potential of aggregate, contact, and liquidity consumption restricted by the epidemic, and to release the huge potential of demand.
He also added that foreign demand in the first half of this year has a very obvious role in promoting development.To maintain economic operation in a reasonable range in a few months, it is necessary to promote the stable growth of foreign trade, increase the efforts to attract foreign capital, and promote further landing on major foreign projects.
Although major economic indicators such as industrial added value and total retail sales of social consumer goods in August in August were better than expected, it showed signs of recovery in the Chinese economy.The sluggish property market is expected to drag the pace of economic recovery.In addition, the epidemics across China have continued to combat consumer confidence.
Analysis: If the fourth quarter of the property market increases the annual economic growth, it is expected to reach 4 %
Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, was analyzed during an interview with Lianhe Morning Post. In the first three quarters of this year, China mainly expanded the downward pressure of infrastructure investment.From the fourth quarter to next year, macro policies can be cut in from the two focus points of "stabilizing property market" and "promoting consumption" to boost the economy by expanding domestic demand.
Wang Jun pointed out that the sales of the Chinese property market in the first three quarters of this year are negative.contribute.
With the intensification of global recession risks, Wang Jun's expected contribution of foreign demand to the Chinese economy will continue to weaken.Through macro policies to stabilize the employment of residents, increase the income of residents, and drive large pieces of commodity consumption such as home appliances and automobiles, it will help the hedging to fall off.
Considering the growth pressure brought by China's Qing Zero policy, the Asian Development Bank will further reduce the expected economic growth forecast of China from 4 % to 3.3 % last week, which is far lower than the 5.5 % set by the official year at the beginning of the year.Left and right growth goals.
Wang Jun believes that in conjunction with infrastructure investment in the first half of the year, if the sales of the property market in the fourth quarter can stop falling and rebound, and the faint and positive growth will be achieved. The annual economic growth is expected to reach about 4 %."Of course, the premise of all this is that the existing epidemic prevention measures cannot be tightened further."
