Jingqiang Xinyun
China ’s official Monday (August 15) announced the July economic data, and almost all important indicators were on red lights, which was unexpected.
In the first half of the year, due to the epidemic reasons, Shanghai, Beijing, Jilin and other places have fallen into control or semi -closed control, making the Chinese economy facing difficulties.In the first six months of this year, China's GDP (GDP) recorded only 2.5 % year -on -year, and the year -on -year increase in GDP had slipped to 0.4 % year -on -year.
Seeing that the localities have just slowed down from the previous round of epidemic, they thought that the economy could stand firm and develop well. I did not expect that the start of the second half of the year was unfavorable. Whether it was industrial production or consumption, the momentum of recovery was inferior to expectations.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that the increase in industrial added value above designated size in July fell from 3.9 % in June to 3.8 %; the year -on -year increase in the total retail sales of social consumer goods also fell from 3.1 % in June to 2.7 %.
Over the years, it has been the real estate industry of China's economic pillar industry, and it has not improved under dense policy stimulation.In July, real estate investment fell 12.3 %, the largest decline since this year.
The more worrying is employment. Although the official has been emphasizing employment in recent months, the situation is not optimistic.In July, the unemployment rate of young people from 16 to 24 climbed to 19.9 %, which was the highest level since the official announcement.In other words, there is an unemployment in every five young people in China.
The economic data of comprehensive slowing down has shadow the CCP's political year.The People's Bank of China was beyond market expectations on Monday, announcing that the interim borrowing facilities (MLF) and 10 basis points of the inverse repurchase operating operating rate were announced to stimulate credit and provide support for the weak economy.
However, the low pressure of the economy and the pessimism of the market have not been diluted by this round of interest rate cuts.Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura Securities China, bluntly stated in a report that the central bank's interest rate cuts 10 basis points "too little, too late".
Some analysts voiced that they are not enough money now, but "the people dare not spend money, and the enterprise dare not invest."This emotion is also reflected in the main financial data released by the People's Bank of China last Friday (August 12).
As of July, the balance growth rate of the broad currency (M2) in China remained at an increase of more than 10 %, but the increase in RMB loans and social financing decreased significantly.In July, RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan (RMB, the same below, S $ 138 billion), an increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year; the increase of 2.81 trillion yuan from June was a cliff -like decline.The social merger increase in July also declined significantly, only 756.1 billion yuan, 319.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and a month -on -month increase of 4.41 trillion yuan.In other words, the central bank is working hard to "open the water", but there seems to be no one who wants these money.
In the early days of the outbreak of the crown disease, the Chinese economy once showed a solo. It is described as a network hot word in recent years, which is "volume" (referring to the best thing about things).Today, the second largest economy has become more and more fatigue.Although economic slowdown is a global phenomenon, the difficulty of China's economy has a deep contradiction with Chinese characteristics.
First of all, the biggest problem faced by China's economy is the contradiction between economy and epidemic prevention.The crown disease epidemic and the "clear zero" policy without signs of looseness seriously interfered with social and economic life.Since August, a new round of outbreaks of summer tourism in Hainan, Tibet, Xinjiang, etc., whether the epidemic can "clear zero" again to face doubts.
Chinese leadership regards "clearing zero" as political achievements, and worrying about relaxing rigorous epidemic prevention will cause large -scale infections.However, the uncertainty caused by the prevention and control of the epidemic is also constantly damaging economic vitality and becoming a stumbling block for economic achievements.After the Hainan epidemic, a peer who stayed with his family in Sanya wrote in the column: "Before abandoning the clearing policy, don't try to travel in China."The rolling "goes down, the economy may only" lie flat ".
Secondly, the shrinking of real estate bubbles is another factor that exacerbates China's economic dilemma, and how to terminate the property market crisis is also contradictory.Regardless of the overall economy or local government finances, the property market now needs to be warmed by the property market; the outside world is also worried that the outbreak of loan suspension will impact Chinese financial stability a while ago, but the operating model of house prices and developers over -loan for many years, but also the development model of developers' excessive loans.Let the official be careful when responding to the crisis of the property market to prevent the old road where the property market is disorderly developed.Paradoxically, the official concerns can also be clearly felt, and it is more difficult to regain confidence in the property market.
In addition, at the moment when the economy is weak, China is urgent to restore the vitality of the private economy, and whether the high -level is not assured of private enterprises has been lifted?The answer is also unclear.In the past two years, private enterprises in the fields of Internet, education and other fields have sacrificed high -pressure supervision measures to defeat the vitality of private enterprises; now the economy is under pressure, and the confidence in the private sector is imminent, but the relaxation of supervision and the inertia of high -pressure control in various fields in various fields.It is unknown whether the contradiction can be adjusted.
At present, the dilemma of China's economy has mixed many political factors, and many economic problems must be solved with political solution. This may also be the biggest difficulty in resolving economic difficulties;It will become a political issue.
